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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2013 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Washington & Lee 7 5 9.96 2.04 -2.96 37.6 304 169 0.64 1 A D-2 Eastern Northern Neck  9  3   48.0 2
2 Galax 7 5 9.64 2.36 -2.64 35.4 490 291 0.63 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire  9  4   47.5 2
3 Lancaster 4 7 6.47 4.53 -2.47 14.5 380 333 0.53 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  5  6   16.5 1
4 Auburn 7 5 9.20 2.80 -2.20 28.0 331 213 0.61 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers  7  5   35.6 0
5 Sussex Central 7 5 8.86 3.14 -1.86 33.5 414 282 0.59 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  7  4   30.9 0
6 West Point 8 3 9.82 1.18 -1.82 34.6 450 205 0.69 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  4  7   5.8 -4
7 Eastside 5 6 6.58 4.42 -1.58 10.9 298 257 0.54 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  3  7   11.5 -2
8 Rappahannock 8 4 9.45 2.55 -1.45 37.6 336 207 0.62 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  7  5   31.1 -1
9 Essex 13 2 14.36 0.64 -1.36 62.2 593 187 0.76 1 A D-2 Eastern Northern Neck  12  3   59.0 -1
10 Colonial Beach 5 6 6.20 4.80 -1.20 27.7 287 261 0.52 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  10  3   48.4 5
11 Honaker 10 2 11.06 0.94 -1.06 41.1 421 169 0.71 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond  13  1   58.6 3
12 Bland(RG) 0 10 0.85 9.15 -0.85 -11.2 157 378 0.29 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire  3  7   7.8 3
13 Fort Chiswell 12 2 12.76 1.24 -0.76 53.3 555 234 0.70 1 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire  7  4   43.0 -5
14 Franklin 11 2 11.69 1.31 -0.69 51.3 531 236 0.69 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  3  8   11.3 -8
15 Hurley 4 6 4.69 5.31 -0.69 -1.6 294 308 0.49 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond  6  4   31.9 2
16 Parry McCluer 8 4 8.57 3.43 -0.57 44.0 365 260 0.58 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  12  1   51.2 4
17 Altavista * 14 1 14.55 0.45 -0.55 68.2 601 166 0.78 1 A D-1 Eastern Dogwood  15  0   73.2 1
18 Covington 9 4 9.49 3.51 -0.49 44.0 367 254 0.59 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  7  5   31.6 -2
19 J.I. Burton 8 5 8.40 4.60 -0.40 27.7 341 273 0.56 1 A D-1 Western Lonesome Pine  5  6   17.6 -3
20 Chilhowie 7 4 7.34 3.66 -0.34 27.5 347 268 0.56 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  1  9   18.6 -6
21 Lunenburg 10 3 10.32 2.68 -0.32 45.0 491 298 0.62 1 A D-1 Eastern James River  8  4   47.9 -2
22 Eastern Montgomery 1 9 1.06 8.94 -0.06 0.7 162 357 0.31 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers  3  7   18.6 2
23 King & Queen 0 10 0.05 9.95 -0.05 -11.6 62 452 0.12 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  2  8   -1.7 2
24 Northampton 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 -16.9 40 463 0.08 1 A D-1 Eastern Eastern Shore-A  1  9   -16.6 1
25 Holston 7 4 6.92 4.08 0.08 27.1 359 295 0.55 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  2  8   -1.4 -5
26 Thomas Walker 1 9 0.88 9.12 0.12 -12.9 197 468 0.30 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  2  8   4.9 1
27 George Wythe(W) 6 5 5.67 5.33 0.33 27.0 301 294 0.51 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  9  4   41.5 3
28 Surry 6 4 5.55 4.45 0.45 33.5 231 213 0.52 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  10  2   40.7 4
29 Mathews 2 8 1.49 8.51 0.51 3.0 193 368 0.34 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  2  8   -5.8 0
30 Northwood 6 5 5.25 5.75 0.75 17.2 266 275 0.49 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  7  4   26.5 1
31 Charles City 1 9 0.21 9.79 0.79 -1.9 122 509 0.19 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  4  7   9.8 3
32 William Campbell 1 10 0.20 10.80 0.80 19.5 106 466 0.19 1 A D-1 Eastern Dogwood  5  6   37.6 4
33 Castlewood 1 9 0.17 9.83 0.83 -13.0 78 351 0.18 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  3  7   12.5 2
34 Twin Valley 4 6 3.12 6.88 0.88 -9.5 286 383 0.43 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond  6  5   16.8 2
35 Rye Cove 2 8 1.07 8.93 0.93 -5.1 204 448 0.31 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  1  9   -0.4 -1
36 Twin Springs 4 6 2.98 7.02 1.02 4.6 211 290 0.42 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  4  7   12.9 0
37 Radford 6 6 4.87 7.13 1.13 44.0 244 281 0.46 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers  6  6   42.9 0
38 Cumberland 2 9 0.79 10.21 1.21 13.6 177 456 0.28 1 A D-1 Eastern James River  2  9   12.6 0
39 Patrick Henry(GS) 3 7 1.76 8.24 1.24 5.0 201 356 0.36 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  7  5   32.2 4
40 Craig County 2 8 0.47 9.53 1.53 -1.9 125 382 0.25 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  2  8   0.2 0
41 Northumberland 3 8 1.43 9.57 1.57 9.8 203 411 0.33 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  5  6   19.6 2
42 Middlesex 7 4 4.99 6.01 2.01 22.9 226 242 0.48 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  1  9   -17.9 -6
43 Rural Retreat 4 7 1.56 9.44 2.44 16.4 195 380 0.34 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  5  6   27.5 1
44 Narrows 3 7 0.54 9.46 2.46 9.9 107 310 0.26 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire  1  9   -0.6 -2
45 Bath County 5 6 2.11 8.89 2.89 19.2 161 274 0.37 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  0  10   -6.4 -5