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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2013 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Woodgrove 9 4 11.82 1.18 -2.82 75.0 429 183 0.70 4 AA II Dulles  8  4   75.7 -1
2 Lake Taylor 10 3 12.60 0.40 -2.60 88.0 447 125 0.78 4 AAA Eastern Eastern  15  0   104.4 5
3 Powhatan 6 5 7.90 3.10 -1.90 59.0 342 242 0.59 4 AA II Jefferson  9  2   68.4 3
4 E.C. Glass 4 7 5.60 5.40 -1.60 39.3 297 293 0.50 4 AA III Seminole  3  7   48.2 -1
5 Phoebus 10 2 11.57 0.43 -1.57 94.5 448 132 0.77 4 AAA Eastern Peninsula  8  4   78.7 -2
6 Salem 11 3 12.56 1.44 -1.56 76.1 500 224 0.69 4 AA IV River Ridge  14  1   90.8 3
7 Courtland 10 3 11.49 1.51 -1.49 75.6 471 222 0.68 4 AA I Battlefield  10  2   76.8 0
8 Denbigh 8 4 9.24 2.76 -1.24 79.7 432 276 0.61 4 AAA Eastern Peninsula  3  7   49.9 -5
9 Hanover 6 6 6.97 5.03 -0.97 65.7 263 233 0.53 4 AAA Central Capital  8  4   75.9 2
10 Norcom 8 3 8.94 2.06 -0.94 75.2 265 154 0.63 4 AAA Eastern Eastern  8  3   76.7 0
11 Charlottesville 4 7 4.83 6.17 -0.83 39.4 286 313 0.48 4 AA II Jefferson  4  7   44.7 0
12 Fauquier 5 6 5.76 5.24 -0.76 41.6 233 225 0.51 4 AA II Evergreen  5  6   51.3 0
13 Liberty(Beal) 7 5 7.75 4.25 -0.75 64.1 410 328 0.56 4 AA II Evergreen  12  2   85.1 5
14 Jefferson Forest 4 6 4.71 5.29 -0.71 38.8 298 311 0.49 4 AA III Seminole  12  1   82.2 8
15 Harrisonburg 2 8 2.67 7.33 -0.67 25.7 247 359 0.41 4 AA III Valley  2  8   19.6 0
16 Amherst County 3 8 3.62 7.38 -0.62 46.1 292 380 0.43 4 AA III Seminole  3  7   50.4 0
17 Sherando 13 2 13.45 1.55 -0.45 82.3 498 224 0.69 4 AA II Northwestern  9  3   76.1 -4
18 GW-Danville 10 2 10.30 1.70 -0.30 62.4 481 247 0.66 4 AAA Northwest Western Valley  12  1   80.3 2
19 Carroll County 2 7 2.28 6.72 -0.28 31.3 247 369 0.40 4 AA IV Southwest  1  9   28.5 -1
20 J.R. Tucker 4 6 4.16 5.84 -0.16 47.6 260 295 0.47 4 AAA Central Colonial  3  7   45.4 -1
21 Kings Fork 9 4 9.14 3.86 -0.14 82.0 381 277 0.58 4 AAA Eastern Southeastern  10  3   85.2 1
22 Chancellor 1 9 1.08 8.92 -0.08 35.3 123 269 0.31 4 AA I Battlefield  3  7   44.9 2
23 Woodrow Wilson 0 10 0.02 9.98 -0.02 38.4 34 371 0.08 4 AAA Eastern Eastern  3  7   60.3 3
24 Fluvanna 1 9 0.90 9.10 0.10 22.4 147 346 0.30 4 AA II Jefferson  1  9   27.6 0
25 Dinwiddie * 15 0 14.86 0.14 0.14 101.0 719 127 0.85 4 AAA Central Central  9  3   78.6 -6
26 Pulaski County 4 7 3.86 7.14 0.14 46.6 172 216 0.44 4 AA IV River Ridge  5  6   55.4 1
27 Handley 7 4 6.83 4.17 0.17 53.3 402 335 0.55 4 AA II Northwestern  4  6   45.6 -3
28 Lakeland 1 9 0.79 9.21 0.21 44.3 116 288 0.29 4 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  8   59.0 2
29 James Wood 1 9 0.79 9.21 0.21 16.1 119 296 0.29 4 AA II Northwestern  5  6   50.0 4
30 William Fleming 3 7 2.57 7.43 0.43 37.6 179 265 0.40 4 AAA Northwest Western Valley  8  3   58.1 5
31 King George 8 3 7.55 3.45 0.45 65.5 254 190 0.57 4 AA I Battlefield  4  6   44.2 -4
32 Smithfield 4 6 3.50 6.50 0.50 46.0 214 269 0.44 4 AA I Bay Rivers  5  6   41.1 1
33 Caroline 4 7 3.50 7.50 0.50 49.9 257 341 0.43 4 AA I Battlefield  0  10   22.7 -4
34 Booker T. Washington 2 7 1.31 7.69 0.69 45.3 152 293 0.34 4 AAA Eastern Eastern  6  6   69.7 4
35 Grafton 3 7 2.29 7.71 0.71 43.2 127 199 0.39 4 AA I Bay Rivers  6  5   50.8 3
36 Louisa 3 7 2.28 7.72 0.72 40.7 166 261 0.39 4 AA II Jefferson  7  4   60.6 4
37 Tabb 7 4 6.24 4.76 0.76 63.8 304 275 0.53 4 AA I Bay Rivers  7  4   53.6 0
38 Eastern View 10 2 9.24 2.76 0.76 63.1 416 266 0.61 4 AA II Evergreen  10  2   72.4 0
39 Bassett 3 7 2.21 7.79 0.79 27.3 215 343 0.39 4 AA IV Piedmont  3  7   34.9 0
40 Nansemond River 4 7 3.10 7.90 0.90 61.9 234 331 0.41 4 AAA Eastern Southeastern  5  6   66.5 1
41 Loudoun County 5 6 4.09 6.91 0.91 56.4 196 238 0.45 4 AA II Dulles  4  7   51.5 -1
42 Heritage(Le) 3 7 2.02 7.98 0.98 36.9 158 263 0.38 4 AA II Dulles  3  7   52.5 0
43 Heritage(NN) 12 2 11.00 3.00 1.00 92.7 403 249 0.62 4 AAA Eastern Peninsula  11  2   86.6 -1
44 Churchland 8 3 6.99 4.01 1.01 65.6 268 218 0.55 4 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  7   55.4 -4
45 Dominion 7 5 5.93 6.07 1.07 66.0 239 241 0.50 4 AA II Dulles  5  6   60.1 -2
46 Millbrook 2 8 0.68 9.32 1.32 26.0 99 261 0.28 4 AA II Northwestern  3  7   36.4 1
47 Deep Creek 2 8 0.67 9.33 1.33 50.5 134 356 0.27 4 AAA Eastern Southeastern  0  10   39.8 -2
48 Monacan 5 6 3.54 7.46 1.46 61.0 239 315 0.43 4 AAA Central Dominion  11  3   90.6 6
49 Midlothian 2 8 0.48 9.52 1.52 40.9 113 341 0.25 4 AAA Central Dominion  2  8   52.4 0
50 Park View(St) 2 8 0.30 9.70 1.70 37.9 57 206 0.22 4 AA II Dulles  0  10   23.5 -2
51 Jamestown 4 7 2.13 8.87 1.87 45.5 188 319 0.37 4 AA I Bay Rivers  0  10   14.5 -4
52 Glen Allen 4 7 1.28 9.72 2.72 58.2 166 352 0.32 4 AAA Central Capital  1  9   37.1 -3