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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2013 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Cosby(C) 7 4 8.87 2.13 -1.87 69.9 312 184 0.63 6 AAA Central Dominion  7  5   78.3 0
2 Bethel 5 5 6.66 3.34 -1.66 71.9 271 210 0.56 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  5  6   65.2 0
3 James Robinson 8 4 9.46 2.54 -1.46 88.9 387 238 0.62 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  5   77.9 -2
4 Herndon 1 9 2.33 7.67 -1.33 49.8 238 370 0.39 6 AAA Northern Concorde  4  6   65.4 3
5 Varina 9 3 10.20 1.80 -1.20 88.1 420 221 0.66 6 AAA Central Capital  4  6   64.4 -5
6 Woodside 6 5 7.19 3.81 -1.19 80.0 353 279 0.56 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  7  4   75.0 1
7 South County 9 3 10.06 1.94 -1.06 91.3 550 299 0.65 6 AAA Northern Patriot  10  2   93.4 1
8 C.D. Hylton 10 2 11.02 0.98 -1.02 95.0 421 172 0.71 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  9  2   90.0 -1
9 Langley 9 3 10.00 2.00 -1.00 86.5 481 265 0.64 6 AAA Northern Liberty  6  5   64.6 -3
10 Franklin County 4 6 4.92 5.08 -0.92 53.1 251 254 0.50 6 AAA Central Western Valley  1  9   39.5 -3
11 Forest Park 9 4 9.91 3.09 -0.91 88.4 245 159 0.61 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  7  4   78.2 -2
12 Oscar Smith 14 1 14.89 0.11 -0.89 105.4 642 103 0.86 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  12  2   102.0 -2
13 Patriot 8 3 8.83 2.17 -0.83 85.4 377 224 0.63 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  9  3   89.0 1
14 Ocean Lakes 12 1 12.71 0.29 -0.71 98.0 615 151 0.80 6 AAA Eastern Beach  15  0   112.8 3
15 Frank Cox 6 5 6.66 4.34 -0.66 80.0 265 226 0.54 6 AAA Eastern Beach  9  3   92.1 3
16 Chantilly 5 6 5.65 5.35 -0.65 78.7 346 339 0.51 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  6   79.2 1
17 Tallwood 6 5 6.64 4.36 -0.64 79.2 304 260 0.54 6 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   61.6 -3
18 Lake Braddock 12 1 12.61 0.39 -0.61 105.1 595 164 0.78 6 AAA Northern Patriot  10  3   96.3 -2
19 Fairfax 7 4 7.60 3.40 -0.60 78.0 291 216 0.57 6 AAA Northern Liberty  5  5   56.3 -2
20 Patrick Henry(R) 8 3 8.58 2.42 -0.58 75.4 302 189 0.62 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  6  5   57.0 -2
21 Colonial Forge 10 4 10.52 3.48 -0.52 99.1 357 237 0.60 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  9  4   86.9 -1
22 Battlefield 6 5 6.51 4.49 -0.51 77.0 233 203 0.53 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  11  2   96.1 5
23 Westfield 11 3 11.48 2.52 -0.48 100.0 393 224 0.64 6 AAA Northern Concorde  12  2   104.1 1
24 McLean 5 5 5.43 4.57 -0.43 65.7 241 226 0.52 6 AAA Northern Liberty  5  5   57.4 0
25 Western Branch 10 2 10.38 1.62 -0.38 92.9 479 241 0.67 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  4   78.7 -3
26 Yorktown 9 3 9.23 2.77 -0.23 84.5 323 207 0.61 6 AAA Northern National  7  4   77.2 -2
27 Hayfield 5 6 5.21 5.79 -0.21 73.9 273 284 0.49 6 AAA Northern National  7  4   80.9 2
28 Gar-Field 0 10 0.19 9.81 -0.19 41.7 62 267 0.19 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   57.4 3
29 Thomas Dale 6 5 6.19 4.81 -0.19 71.5 270 246 0.52 6 AAA Central Central  9  3   85.8 3
30 James River(C) 6 4 6.16 3.84 -0.16 64.1 243 204 0.54 6 AAA Central Dominion  8  5   80.0 2
31 Kecoughtan 5 5 5.13 4.87 -0.13 69.4 210 206 0.50 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  9  3   81.7 4
32 James Madison 1 9 0.99 9.01 0.01 44.0 162 367 0.31 6 AAA Northern Liberty  5  5   60.2 4
33 Riverbend 5 5 4.94 5.06 0.06 76.0 232 234 0.50 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  6  5   68.9 1
34 Annandale 1 9 0.92 9.08 0.08 45.1 154 360 0.30 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  5   73.6 5
35 Bayside 6 5 5.89 5.11 0.11 77.7 193 183 0.51 6 AAA Eastern Beach  7  4   83.7 1
36 W.T. Woodson 3 7 2.77 7.23 0.23 61.9 150 214 0.41 6 AAA Northern Patriot  2  8   53.1 -1
37 Centreville * 15 0 14.66 0.34 0.34 115.8 680 169 0.80 6 AAA Northern Concorde  12  3   105.0 -3
38 Stafford 1 9 0.49 9.51 0.51 54.0 109 327 0.25 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  1  9   40.4 0
39 Stonewall Jackson(M) 8 5 7.17 5.83 0.83 86.5 421 390 0.52 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  5  6   68.8 -3
40 Osbourn Park 3 7 2.09 7.91 0.91 60.1 149 244 0.38 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  0  10   39.2 -3
41 Oakton 5 5 4.05 5.95 0.95 74.6 228 263 0.46 6 AAA Northern Concorde  5  6   73.0 0
42 West Potomac 4 6 2.99 7.01 1.01 70.4 256 351 0.42 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  6   68.3 0
43 Woodbridge 6 5 4.99 6.01 1.01 76.7 237 254 0.48 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  4  6   63.1 -2
44 Osbourn 2 8 0.79 9.21 1.21 53.9 81 201 0.29 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  2  8   51.4 0
45 First Colonial 3 7 1.70 8.30 1.30 64.5 145 261 0.36 6 AAA Eastern Beach  2  8   55.5 -1
46 T.C. Williams 7 4 5.44 5.56 1.56 87.0 242 244 0.50 6 AAA Northern Patriot  2  8   48.1 -5
47 Washington-Lee 8 3 6.11 4.89 1.89 85.2 240 221 0.52 6 AAA Northern National  6  5   68.3 -2
48 Grassfield 9 3 7.01 4.99 1.99 88.3 331 292 0.53 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  4  6   60.5 -5
49 South Lakes 5 6 2.99 8.01 2.01 65.7 193 278 0.41 6 AAA Northern Liberty  2  8   42.4 -3
50 Granby 4 6 1.86 8.14 2.14 65.1 144 249 0.37 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  1  9   44.6 -3
51 West Springfield 3 7 0.66 9.34 2.34 59.4 130 346 0.27 6 AAA Northern Patriot  9  3   90.2 6
52 Landstown 3 7 0.64 9.36 2.36 64.5 114 308 0.27 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   67.7 1