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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2014 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 King William 10 3 12.63 0.37 -2.63 41.6 546 147 0.79 2 A D-2 Eastern Tidewater  7  3   28.8 -3
2 Wilson Memorial 13 2 14.90 0.10 -1.90 63.6 541 85 0.86 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  4  7   31.1 -9
3 Luray 7 4 8.80 2.20 -1.80 38.6 279 167 0.63 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  7  5   38.2 0
4 Richlands 9 4 10.77 2.23 -1.77 60.1 401 224 0.64 2 AA IV Southwest  11  2   69.4 2
5 Wise Central 4 7 5.75 5.25 -1.75 30.7 238 230 0.51 2 AA D-2 Western Mountain  7  4   47.7 3
6 Amelia County 6 5 7.72 3.28 -1.72 39.1 306 223 0.58 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  6  5   36.7 0
7 Gate City 10 3 11.62 1.38 -1.62 60.2 443 201 0.69 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  3  7   37.3 -7
8 Buckingham County 8 4 9.36 2.64 -1.36 54.2 436 273 0.61 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  10  2   65.2 2
9 Brunswick 9 4 10.24 2.76 -1.24 49.8 343 211 0.62 2 AA I Southside  5  6   35.8 -4
10 Tazewell 5 6 6.00 5.00 -1.00 32.2 305 285 0.52 2 AA IV Southwest  4  6   27.8 -1
11 Dan River 7 4 7.98 3.02 -0.98 52.2 238 166 0.59 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  7  4   60.2 0
12 Nottoway 11 3 11.93 2.07 -0.93 61.8 352 184 0.66 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  2  8   16.0 -9
13 Clarke County 11 1 11.83 0.17 -0.83 51.1 503 104 0.83 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  13  2   71.0 2
14 Appomattox 6 5 6.78 4.22 -0.78 51.1 273 229 0.54 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  15  0   85.0 9
15 Lee 9 3 9.76 2.24 -0.76 51.5 433 251 0.63 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  5  6   31.5 -4
16 R.E. Lee(ST) 6 5 6.73 4.27 -0.73 41.9 315 266 0.54 2 AA III Valley  9  4   56.7 3
17 Goochland 9 3 9.68 2.32 -0.68 60.4 423 249 0.63 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  8  4   58.0 -1
18 Chatham 5 6 5.58 5.42 -0.58 37.8 265 262 0.50 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  3  7   32.9 -2
19 East Rockingham 9 3 9.50 2.50 -0.50 49.9 377 230 0.62 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  7  5   39.0 -2
20 Riverheads 11 1 11.47 0.53 -0.47 58.4 472 151 0.76 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  13  1   68.9 2
21 Glenvar * 14 1 14.35 0.65 -0.35 72.4 422 134 0.76 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers  12  1   71.1 -2
22 Giles 12 1 12.32 0.68 -0.32 69.0 604 207 0.74 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers  10  2   66.0 -2
23 Greensville 2 8 2.28 7.72 -0.28 2.0 236 371 0.39 2 AA I Southside  8  5   35.9 6
24 Page 0 10 0.26 9.74 -0.26 4.3 114 434 0.21 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  1  9   6.4 1
25 James River(B) 3 7 3.22 6.78 -0.22 18.6 205 270 0.43 2 A D-2 Western Pioneer  8  3   54.9 5
26 Marion 10 2 10.16 1.84 -0.16 59.0 429 228 0.65 2 AA IV Southwest  1  9   3.3 -9
27 Gretna 1 9 1.11 8.89 -0.11 23.7 121 261 0.32 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  5  6   46.5 4
28 Grundy 0 9 0.05 8.95 -0.05 3.3 54 377 0.13 2 A D-2 Western Black Diamond  4  6   16.0 4
29 Arcadia 2 8 1.97 8.03 0.03 4.1 138 232 0.37 2 A D-2 Eastern Eastern Shore-A  5  6   12.0 3
30 Madison County 2 8 1.96 8.04 0.04 8.8 202 341 0.37 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  2  8   11.4 0
31 Lebanon 6 5 5.82 5.18 0.18 41.6 264 253 0.51 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  2  8   14.6 -4
32 George Mason 2 8 1.77 8.23 0.23 4.8 158 279 0.36 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  8  4   38.2 6
33 Nandua 7 4 6.76 4.24 0.24 28.1 322 271 0.54 2 A D-2 Eastern Eastern Shore-A  4  6   3.0 -3
34 Floyd County 2 8 1.73 8.27 0.27 25.6 181 323 0.36 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers  2  8   20.0 0
35 Virginia 2 8 1.42 8.58 0.58 26.1 188 366 0.34 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  6  5   39.7 4
36 Grayson County 3 7 2.32 7.68 0.68 26.8 176 274 0.39 2 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire  6  5   39.9 3
37 Bluestone 1 9 0.23 9.77 0.77 8.4 98 392 0.20 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  3  7   18.7 2
38 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 1 9 0.20 9.80 0.80 9.6 102 432 0.19 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  1  9   11.0 0
39 Prince Edward 4 7 3.20 7.80 0.80 32.8 273 380 0.42 2 AA I Southside  3  7   21.8 -1
40 Martinsville 1 10 0.18 10.82 0.82 28.7 87 394 0.18 2 AA IV Piedmont  4  7   44.0 3
41 Buffalo Gap 5 6 3.98 7.02 1.02 29.6 231 285 0.45 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  11  3   55.8 6
42 Randolph-Henry 2 8 0.92 9.08 1.08 22.5 180 421 0.30 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  5  5   32.7 3
43 John Battle 2 8 0.71 9.29 1.29 21.4 132 343 0.28 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  1  9   9.0 -1
44 Windsor 2 8 0.55 9.45 1.45 1.3 133 381 0.26 2 A D-2 Eastern Tri-Rivers  2  8   1.1 0
45 Bruton 2 9 0.48 10.52 1.52 20.7 106 332 0.24 2 AA I Bay Rivers  1  9   20.1 -1
46 Strasburg 7 4 5.47 5.53 1.53 35.2 293 294 0.50 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  5  6   25.0 -2
47 Graham 4 7 2.42 8.58 1.58 25.8 279 446 0.38 2 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire  6  6   51.4 2
48 Union 9 3 7.14 4.86 1.86 57.1 309 268 0.54 2 A D-2 Western Mountain  13  1   71.2 4
49 Nelson County 2 8 0.11 9.89 1.89 15.5 70 374 0.16 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  1  9   16.4 -1