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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2014 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Meadowbrook 5 6 8.31 2.69 -3.31 71.7 296 195 0.60 5 AAA Central Central  5  6   75.0 0
2 Briar Woods 8 4 10.43 1.57 -2.43 78.4 383 190 0.67 5 AA II Potomac  3  8   72.7 -5
3 Broad Run 9 4 11.21 1.79 -2.21 85.8 460 233 0.66 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  8  4   88.3 -1
4 Hampton 7 4 8.85 2.15 -1.85 74.3 358 212 0.63 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  12  1   95.5 5
5 Matoaca 4 6 5.84 4.16 -1.84 60.4 312 275 0.53 5 AAA Central Central  7  4   74.3 3
6 Henrico 8 3 9.69 1.31 -1.69 81.1 325 155 0.68 5 AAA Central Capital  7  4   87.0 -1
7 Stone Bridge 10 3 11.68 1.32 -1.68 90.4 455 203 0.69 5 AAA Northern Liberty  10  5   94.4 0
8 L.C. Bird * 13 2 14.51 0.49 -1.51 103.9 589 168 0.78 5 AAA Central Dominion  11  1   89.4 -2
9 Atlee 8 3 9.38 1.62 -1.38 80.1 483 252 0.66 5 AAA Central Capital  7  5   79.1 -1
10 Albemarle 3 7 4.37 5.63 -1.37 39.0 266 292 0.48 5 AAA Northwest Jefferson  6  5   62.2 3
11 Salem(VB) 11 3 12.34 1.66 -1.34 93.6 391 186 0.68 5 AAA Eastern Beach  8  3   83.7 -3
12 Wakefield 8 4 9.14 2.86 -1.14 67.5 355 231 0.61 5 AAA Northern National  8  3   65.5 0
13 Mills Godwin 6 4 6.89 3.11 -0.89 62.9 270 201 0.57 5 AAA Central Colonial  4  6   54.7 -2
14 North Stafford 6 6 6.89 5.11 -0.89 68.6 258 231 0.53 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  9  4   83.6 3
15 Mount Vernon 0 10 0.72 9.28 -0.72 35.1 151 390 0.28 5 AAA Northern National  2  8   45.9 2
16 Manchester 11 1 11.59 0.41 -0.59 95.6 478 138 0.78 5 AAA Central Dominion  6  5   64.6 -5
17 Indian River 8 4 8.52 3.48 -0.52 86.2 283 203 0.58 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  11  3   95.6 3
18 Tuscarora 14 1 14.41 0.59 -0.41 99.0 586 179 0.77 5 AA II Potomac  13  1   100.5 -1
19 Thomas Jefferson(A) 0 10 0.19 9.81 -0.19 24.3 103 445 0.19 5 AAA Northern Liberty  0  10   16.8 0
20 Hickory 1 9 1.18 8.82 -0.18 46.9 142 299 0.32 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   58.1 2
21 Kempsville 0 10 0.11 9.89 -0.11 43.3 73 385 0.16 5 AAA Eastern Beach  0  10   36.4 0
22 Kellam 5 6 5.00 6.00 -0.00 72.1 187 200 0.48 5 AAA Eastern Beach  5  6   63.9 0
23 Hermitage 12 1 11.99 1.01 0.01 93.4 480 192 0.71 5 AAA Central Colonial  12  1   98.4 0
24 Freedom 3 8 2.97 8.03 0.03 58.4 184 266 0.41 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   55.4 0
25 Falls Church 7 4 6.89 4.11 0.11 67.2 293 242 0.55 5 AAA Northern National  4  6   38.8 -3
26 Lee-Davis 2 8 1.81 8.19 0.19 48.2 164 287 0.36 5 AAA Central Capital  9  3   86.9 7
27 Maury 1 9 0.80 9.20 0.20 36.1 118 292 0.29 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  7   60.7 3
28 Great Bridge 6 5 5.79 5.21 0.21 71.7 309 297 0.51 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  1  9   51.3 -5
29 Deep Run 1 9 0.70 9.30 0.30 34.7 141 367 0.28 5 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   42.6 1
30 Douglas Freeman 7 4 6.64 4.36 0.36 70.6 208 178 0.54 5 AAA Central Colonial  9  2   79.3 2
31 Highland Springs 11 1 10.55 1.45 0.45 98.2 429 206 0.68 5 AAA Central Capital  14  1   108.0 3
32 Norview 11 2 10.54 2.46 0.46 87.1 386 225 0.63 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  8  3   83.1 -3
33 Green Run 7 5 6.52 5.48 0.48 80.4 272 255 0.52 5 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   58.0 -4
34 Menchville 1 9 0.41 9.59 0.59 36.1 109 351 0.24 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  1  9   44.3 0
35 Gloucester 1 9 0.35 9.65 0.65 40.8 117 399 0.23 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  3  7   51.3 2
36 Prince George 5 5 4.35 5.65 0.65 60.0 274 302 0.48 5 AAA Central Central  3  7   50.3 -2
37 Orange 1 9 0.25 9.75 0.75 33.1 119 463 0.20 5 AAA Northwest Jefferson  6  5   62.4 5
38 R.E. Lee(S) 2 8 1.18 8.82 0.82 53.3 163 343 0.32 5 AAA Northern National  3  7   44.1 1
39 Freedom(R) 1 9 0.03 9.97 0.97 41.6 59 515 0.10 5 AAA Northwest Potomac  4  6   45.9 3
40 J.E.B. Stuart 2 8 1.02 8.98 0.98 36.3 142 318 0.31 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   24.1 -1
41 Thomas Edison 3 8 2.00 9.00 1.00 52.3 145 253 0.36 5 AAA Northern National  3  7   44.8 0
42 Massaponax 13 1 11.95 2.05 1.05 93.3 548 285 0.66 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  12  1   97.5 -1
43 George Marshall 2 8 0.91 9.09 1.09 37.3 149 349 0.30 5 AAA Northern Liberty  6  5   57.9 4
44 Brooke Point 3 8 1.81 9.19 1.19 57.7 149 272 0.35 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  9  3   87.0 6
45 Warwick 2 8 0.28 9.72 1.72 42.2 91 338 0.21 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   52.2 0
46 Princess Anne 2 9 0.24 10.76 1.76 54.3 95 390 0.20 5 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   55.7 1
47 Mountain View 4 7 2.22 8.78 1.78 60.9 187 311 0.38 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  7  4   76.6 3
48 Clover Hill 3 7 0.99 9.01 2.01 56.7 141 319 0.31 5 AAA Central Dominion  3  7   44.3 0
49 Patrick Henry(A) 6 5 3.94 7.06 2.06 62.3 211 262 0.45 5 AAA Central Colonial  4  6   59.7 -2
50 Halifax County 5 6 2.76 8.24 2.24 47.6 295 442 0.40 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  5  6   45.0 0
51 Potomac 6 6 3.06 8.94 2.94 71.1 174 259 0.40 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   54.0 -3