VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2015 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Brunswick 5 6 7.77 3.23 -2.77 35.8 324 234 0.58 2 A I Tri-Rivers  4  6   30.7 -1
2 Graham 6 6 8.60 3.40 -2.60 51.4 467 331 0.59 2 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire  11  2   72.5 5
3 Stuarts Draft 7 5 9.39 2.61 -2.39 41.7 342 213 0.62 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  13  1   71.9 6
4 Gate City 3 7 5.38 4.62 -2.38 37.3 271 256 0.51 2 A D-2 Western Mountain  5  6   51.9 2
5 Wilson Memorial 4 7 6.32 4.68 -2.32 31.1 200 179 0.53 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  3  7   30.5 -1
6 Nottoway 2 8 4.30 5.70 -2.30 16.0 310 344 0.47 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  4  7   23.7 2
7 James River(B) 8 3 9.93 1.07 -1.93 54.9 352 154 0.70 2 A D-2 Western Pioneer  3  7   25.2 -5
8 Clarke County 13 2 14.59 0.41 -1.59 71.0 601 160 0.79 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  10  3   58.8 -3
9 King William 7 3 8.51 1.49 -1.51 28.8 395 207 0.66 2 A D-2 Eastern Tidewater  7  4   23.1 0
10 Central(W) 6 5 7.50 3.50 -1.50 35.0 325 245 0.57 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  8  3   50.5 2
11 Richlands 11 2 12.43 0.57 -1.43 69.4 609 195 0.76 2 AA IV Southwest  13  2   77.8 2
12 Buckingham County 10 2 11.40 0.60 -1.40 65.2 536 180 0.75 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  2  8   14.7 -8
13 Buffalo Gap 11 3 12.35 1.65 -1.35 55.8 491 233 0.68 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  8  4   54.5 -3
14 Virginia 6 5 7.34 3.66 -1.34 39.7 325 251 0.56 2 A D-2 Western Southwest  3  8   38.4 -3
15 R.E. Lee(ST) 9 4 10.10 2.90 -1.10 56.7 475 299 0.61 2 A III Valley  4  7   33.7 -5
16 Wise Central 7 4 8.05 2.95 -1.05 47.7 357 246 0.59 2 A D-2 Western Mountain  3  7   31.2 -4
17 Dan River 7 4 8.05 2.95 -1.05 60.2 322 222 0.59 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  9  2   65.5 2
18 Goochland 8 4 8.98 3.02 -0.98 58.0 406 271 0.60 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  13  1   61.7 5
19 Giles 10 2 10.86 1.14 -0.86 66.0 484 210 0.70 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers  8  4   55.8 -2
20 Glenvar 12 1 12.70 0.30 -0.70 71.1 394 99 0.80 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers  9  3   56.2 -3
21 Nandua 4 6 4.57 5.43 -0.57 3.0 196 209 0.48 2 A D-2 Eastern Eastern Shore-A  6  4   32.9 2
22 Madison County 2 8 2.55 7.45 -0.55 11.4 218 324 0.40 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  6  6   41.0 4
23 Bluestone 3 7 3.52 6.48 -0.52 18.7 236 296 0.44 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  5  6   24.0 2
24 East Rockingham 7 5 7.48 4.52 -0.48 39.0 399 331 0.55 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  9  4   59.8 2
25 Lee 5 6 5.33 5.67 -0.33 31.5 301 308 0.49 2 A D-2 Western Mountain  6  5   36.6 1
26 Gretna 5 6 5.22 5.78 -0.22 46.5 259 269 0.49 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  3  7   34.1 -2
27 Marion 1 9 1.09 8.91 -0.09 3.3 160 349 0.31 2 A IV Hogoheegee  7  4   49.2 6
28 Bruton 1 9 0.92 9.08 0.08 20.1 119 278 0.30 2 A I Bay Rivers  0  10   13.5 -1
29 George Mason 8 4 7.77 4.23 0.23 38.2 386 308 0.56 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  2  8   10.0 -6
30 Appomattox * 15 0 14.77 0.23 0.23 85.0 568 122 0.82 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  15  0   86.0 0
31 Arcadia 5 6 4.74 6.26 0.26 12.0 304 337 0.47 2 A D-2 Eastern Eastern Shore-A  3  6   10.8 -2
32 Ridgeview 6 5 5.73 5.27 0.27 39.2 258 250 0.51 2 A Mountain  2  8   15.6 -4
33 Nelson County 1 9 0.57 9.43 0.43 16.4 120 339 0.26 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  0  10   12.6 -1
34 Prince Edward 3 7 2.43 7.57 0.57 21.8 275 419 0.40 2 A I James River  5  6   24.1 2
35 John Battle 1 9 0.39 9.61 0.61 9.0 113 370 0.23 2 A D-2 Western Mountain  5  6   37.4 4
36 Page 1 9 0.39 9.61 0.61 6.4 158 519 0.23 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  3  7   28.1 2
37 Floyd County 2 8 1.29 8.71 0.71 20.0 193 392 0.33 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers  6  5   36.2 4
38 Martinsville 4 7 3.28 7.72 0.72 44.0 220 302 0.42 2 A IV Piedmont  8  4   50.1 4
39 Randolph-Henry 5 5 4.23 5.77 0.77 32.7 330 370 0.47 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  2  8   7.5 -3
40 Grayson County 6 5 5.21 5.79 0.79 39.9 273 284 0.49 2 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire  2  8   24.1 -4
41 Union 13 1 12.16 1.84 0.84 71.2 541 269 0.67 2 A D-2 Western Mountain  11  2   65.5 -2
42 Strasburg 5 6 4.09 6.91 0.91 25.0 192 233 0.45 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  8  4   46.6 3
43 Amelia County 6 5 5.02 5.98 0.98 36.7 355 379 0.48 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  4  6   16.0 -2
44 Greensville 8 5 6.73 6.27 1.27 35.9 383 373 0.51 2 A I Tri-Rivers  1  7   6.4 -7
45 Washington & Lee 6 5 4.57 6.43 1.43 28.0 231 262 0.47 2 A D-2 Eastern Northern Neck  4  7   14.4 -2
46 Lebanon 2 8 0.42 9.58 1.58 14.6 117 371 0.24 2 A D-2 Western Southwest  4  7   30.2 2
47 Tazewell 4 6 2.38 7.62 1.62 27.8 210 323 0.39 2 A IV Southwest  2  8   29.6 -2
48 Chatham 3 7 1.21 8.79 1.79 32.9 181 377 0.32 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  3  7   24.2 0
49 Grundy 4 6 2.16 7.84 1.84 16.0 229 369 0.38 2 A D-2 Western Black Diamond  7  4   39.2 3