VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2015 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Millbrook 8 4 11.22 0.78 -3.22 72.0 491 183 0.73 4 AA II Northwestern  10  2   71.4 2
2 Dominion 6 4 8.62 1.38 -2.62 66.6 278 141 0.66 4 AA II Dulles  10  3   83.3 4
3 Courtland 11 3 13.23 0.77 -2.23 86.0 505 176 0.74 4 AA I Battlefield  5  6   64.1 -6
4 Powhatan 4 6 6.19 3.81 -2.19 47.2 267 223 0.54 4 AA II Jefferson  8  3   77.4 4
5 GW-Danville 10 2 11.80 0.20 -1.80 75.3 507 111 0.82 4 AA Northwest Piedmont  7  4   54.7 -3
6 William Byrd 6 4 7.66 2.34 -1.66 72.3 295 190 0.61 4 AA III Blue Ridge  10  2   82.6 4
7 Dinwiddie 8 4 9.61 2.39 -1.61 77.2 445 266 0.63 4 AA Central Central  14  1   94.3 6
8 Eastern View 9 3 10.44 1.56 -1.44 75.2 416 206 0.67 4 AA II Evergreen  12  1   85.7 3
9 Heritage(Le) 6 5 7.41 3.59 -1.41 63.2 365 279 0.57 4 AA II Dulles  8  4   66.2 2
10 Woodgrove 11 2 12.39 0.61 -1.39 87.7 540 177 0.75 4 AA II Dulles  11  1   86.8 0
11 Sherando 9 2 10.31 0.69 -1.31 81.2 346 127 0.73 4 AA II Northwestern  6  4   53.5 -3
12 Loudoun Valley 7 3 8.20 1.80 -1.20 67.7 340 194 0.64 4 AA II Dulles  7  4   62.6 0
13 Monacan 9 2 10.13 0.87 -1.13 73.0 373 150 0.71 4 AA Central Dominion  9  3   82.9 0
14 Charlottesville 3 7 4.06 5.94 -1.06 41.6 191 220 0.46 4 AA II Jefferson  7  5   64.1 4
15 Chancellor 7 4 7.87 3.13 -0.87 74.9 367 261 0.58 4 AA I Battlefield  9  3   85.1 2
16 Grafton 7 4 7.62 3.38 -0.62 56.9 285 211 0.57 4 AA I Bay Rivers  9  3   64.6 2
17 Louisa 6 5 6.49 4.51 -0.49 69.3 302 264 0.53 4 AA II Jefferson  8  3   79.8 2
18 Lafayette 12 1 12.47 0.53 -0.47 76.7 559 173 0.76 4 AA I Bay Rivers  13  1   85.8 1
19 Liberty(Beal) 6 5 6.40 4.60 -0.40 64.0 346 306 0.53 4 AA II Evergreen  4  6   54.4 -2
20 Lake Taylor 14 1 14.32 0.68 -0.32 95.6 674 218 0.76 4 AA Eastern Eastern  11  2   82.5 -3
21 John Champe 11 1 11.31 0.69 -0.31 88.7 372 132 0.74 4 AA II Dulles  7  4   63.4 -4
22 Caroline 0 10 0.21 9.79 -0.21 27.5 127 528 0.19 4 AA I Battlefield  2  8   42.6 2
23 Handley 0 10 0.17 9.83 -0.17 12.5 89 402 0.18 4 AA II Northwestern  2  8   28.3 2
24 Smithfield 6 5 6.11 4.89 -0.11 56.5 340 313 0.52 4 AA I Bay Rivers  8  3   63.5 2
25 Kings Fork 6 6 6.00 6.00 0.00 73.8 301 301 0.50 4 AA Eastern Southeastern  4  7   65.8 -2
26 King George 5 6 4.72 6.28 0.28 56.2 260 289 0.47 4 AA I Battlefield  6  5   59.4 1
27 Amherst County 7 5 6.66 5.34 0.34 79.2 405 373 0.52 4 AA III Seminole  9  3   81.0 2
28 Salem * 13 0 12.64 0.36 0.36 99.4 575 154 0.79 4 AA IV River Ridge  13  1   94.7 0
29 E.C. Glass 1 9 0.62 9.38 0.38 45.1 129 353 0.27 4 AA III Seminole  6  4   64.6 5
30 Hanover 9 4 8.61 4.39 0.39 89.1 389 303 0.56 4 AA Central Capital  2  8   47.5 -7
31 Harrisonburg 7 3 6.56 3.44 0.44 54.6 244 192 0.56 4 AA III Valley  6  4   54.0 -1
32 Carroll County 1 8 0.43 8.57 0.57 16.0 125 377 0.25 4 AA IV River Ridge  1  9   21.1 0
33 Jamestown 1 8 0.43 8.57 0.57 23.7 133 402 0.25 4 AA I Bay Rivers  3  7   35.4 2
34 Denbigh 4 7 3.43 7.57 0.57 59.0 211 283 0.43 4 AA Eastern Peninsula  3  8   52.0 -1
35 Jefferson Forest 12 1 11.25 1.75 0.75 96.0 647 325 0.67 4 AA III Seminole  2  8   47.4 -10
36 Pulaski County 9 2 8.23 2.77 0.77 72.5 329 220 0.60 4 AA IV River Ridge  7  4   61.5 -2
37 Fauquier 5 5 4.17 5.83 0.83 52.1 175 198 0.47 4 AA II Evergreen  4  6   44.8 -1
38 William Fleming 4 6 3.14 6.86 0.86 53.7 205 274 0.43 4 AA Northwest Blue Ridge  3  7   44.3 -1
39 Great Bridge 1 9 0.10 9.90 0.90 51.3 70 378 0.16 4 AA Eastern Southeastern  2  8   49.9 1
40 Kettle Run 3 6 2.01 6.99 0.99 52.1 147 233 0.39 4 AA II Evergreen  3  7   45.6 0
41 James Wood 5 5 3.91 6.09 1.09 44.3 263 310 0.46 4 AA II Northwestern  2  8   27.8 -3
42 Park View(St) 2 8 0.82 9.18 1.18 36.8 151 370 0.29 4 AA II Dulles  2  8   34.0 0
43 Rock Ridge 2 8 0.67 9.33 1.33 39.1 161 426 0.27 4 AA Dulles  1  9   30.5 -1
44 Heritage(NN) 5 7 3.62 8.38 1.38 66.1 272 371 0.42 4 AA Eastern Peninsula  8  4   81.8 3
45 Loudoun County 3 7 1.36 8.64 1.64 51.8 181 359 0.34 4 AA II Dulles  3  7   44.3 0
46 Huguenot 2 8 0.33 9.67 1.67 37.2 72 253 0.22 4 AA Central Dominion  3  7   54.3 1
47 Midlothian 2 8 0.20 9.80 1.80 38.5 88 372 0.19 4 AA Central Dominion  3  7   57.6 1
48 Deep Creek 3 7 0.73 9.27 2.27 60.7 100 256 0.28 4 AA Eastern Southeastern  3  8   51.7 0
49 Woodrow Wilson 3 7 0.60 9.40 2.40 53.4 92 255 0.27 4 AA Eastern Eastern  2  8   37.2 -1
50 Freedom(R) 4 6 1.50 8.50 2.50 45.9 183 348 0.34 4 AA Northwest Dulles  4  6   44.2 0
51 Churchland 4 7 1.39 9.61 2.61 55.3 145 297 0.33 4 AA Eastern Eastern  1  9   30.9 -3
52 Bassett 4 6 1.02 8.98 2.98 46.1 148 331 0.31 4 AA IV Piedmont  1  9   21.8 -3