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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2015 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Kecoughtan 5 7 8.04 3.96 -3.04 65.6 290 223 0.57 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   53.0 -3
2 Nansemond River 7 4 9.85 1.15 -2.85 81.2 396 179 0.69 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  6  5   69.1 -1
3 Henrico 7 4 9.54 1.46 -2.54 87.0 297 148 0.67 5 AAA Central Capital  6  5   65.0 -1
4 Patrick Henry(R) 5 6 7.08 3.92 -2.08 57.5 355 285 0.55 5 AAA Northwest River Ridge  8  3   69.1 3
5 Indian River 11 3 12.94 1.06 -1.94 95.6 425 168 0.72 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  5   68.0 -4
6 Salem(VB) 8 3 9.58 1.42 -1.58 83.7 300 148 0.67 5 AAA Eastern Beach  8  4   77.3 0
7 Norview 8 3 9.54 1.46 -1.54 83.1 377 188 0.67 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  11  3   81.0 3
8 Broad Run 8 4 9.48 2.52 -1.48 88.3 418 256 0.62 5 AAA Northwest Potomac  9  3   86.7 1
9 Lee-Davis 9 3 10.34 1.66 -1.34 86.9 380 193 0.66 5 AAA Central Capital  8  3   75.6 -1
10 Mountain View 7 4 8.33 2.67 -1.33 76.6 410 269 0.60 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  7   54.0 -3
11 Falls Church 4 6 5.28 4.72 -1.28 38.8 270 259 0.51 5 AAA Northern National  7  4   66.0 3
12 Wakefield 8 3 9.20 1.80 -1.20 65.5 311 170 0.65 5 AAA Northern National  2  8   35.8 -6
13 Patrick Henry(A) 4 6 5.08 4.92 -1.08 59.7 253 250 0.50 5 AAA Central Capital  8  4   74.7 4
14 L.C. Bird 11 1 11.98 0.02 -0.98 89.4 505 46 0.92 5 AAA Central Dominion  11  2   93.7 0
15 Bethel 6 5 6.90 4.10 -0.90 74.7 217 179 0.55 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  5   72.4 0
16 Potomac 3 7 3.88 6.12 -0.88 54.0 195 231 0.46 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  4  6   54.2 1
17 Brooke Point 9 3 9.83 2.17 -0.83 87.0 404 231 0.64 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  11  2   86.8 2
18 Hampton 12 1 12.73 0.27 -0.73 95.5 511 123 0.81 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  11  2   92.6 -1
19 Douglas Freeman 9 2 9.58 1.42 -0.58 79.3 292 144 0.67 5 AAA Central Colonial  10  2   83.6 1
20 Highland Springs * 14 1 14.42 0.58 -0.42 108.0 612 186 0.77 5 AAA Central Capital  14  1   102.8 0
21 Hermitage 12 1 12.33 0.67 -0.33 98.4 456 155 0.75 5 AAA Central Colonial  10  2   88.4 -2
22 Massaponax 12 1 12.27 0.73 -0.27 97.5 548 193 0.74 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  12  2   94.8 0
23 Green Run 3 7 3.26 6.74 -0.26 58.0 208 272 0.43 5 AAA Eastern Beach  4  7   59.0 1
24 George Marshall 6 5 6.23 4.77 -0.23 57.9 286 259 0.52 5 AAA Northern National  5  6   55.6 -1
25 Kempsville 0 10 0.21 9.79 -0.21 36.4 77 322 0.19 5 AAA Eastern Beach  0  10   35.8 0
26 Thomas Jefferson(A) 0 10 0.16 9.84 -0.16 16.8 102 464 0.18 5 AAA Northern National  0  9   15.5 0
27 Briar Woods 3 8 3.11 7.89 -0.11 72.7 219 309 0.41 5 AAA II Potomac  4  7   74.6 1
28 Atlee 7 5 7.10 4.90 -0.10 79.1 396 345 0.53 5 AAA Central Capital  5  6   66.0 -2
29 Meadowbrook 5 6 5.02 5.98 -0.02 75.0 225 240 0.48 5 AAA Central Central  4  6   62.6 -1
30 Albemarle 6 5 5.89 5.11 0.11 62.2 232 220 0.51 5 AAA Northwest Jefferson  9  3   79.7 3
31 J.E.B. Stuart 1 9 0.79 9.21 0.21 24.1 141 351 0.29 5 AAA Northern National  4  6   45.9 3
32 Stone Bridge 10 5 9.67 5.33 0.33 94.4 465 373 0.55 5 AAA Northern Potomac  12  3   99.8 2
33 Mills Godwin 4 6 3.51 6.49 0.49 54.7 215 270 0.44 5 AAA Central Colonial  5  5   59.0 1
34 Glen Allen 1 9 0.51 9.49 0.49 35.7 114 337 0.25 5 AAA Central Colonial  3  7   49.4 2
35 Orange 6 5 5.47 5.53 0.53 62.4 266 267 0.50 5 AAA Northwest Jefferson  6  5   64.8 0
36 Matoaca 7 4 6.35 4.65 0.65 74.3 359 320 0.53 5 AAA Central Central  5  5   65.6 -2
37 Thomas Edison 3 7 2.21 7.79 0.79 44.8 192 306 0.39 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   34.1 -2
38 Menchville 1 9 0.10 9.90 0.90 44.3 68 376 0.15 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  1  9   45.4 0
39 J.R. Tucker 5 5 3.98 6.02 1.02 64.2 206 240 0.46 5 AAA Central Colonial  1  9   32.9 -4
40 North Stafford 9 4 7.96 5.04 1.04 83.6 469 396 0.54 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  7  5   69.2 -2
41 Prince George 3 7 1.82 8.18 1.18 50.3 180 314 0.36 5 AAA Central Central  3  7   47.6 0
42 Gloucester 3 7 1.80 8.20 1.20 51.3 210 368 0.36 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   60.7 1
43 Stafford 2 8 0.56 9.44 1.44 54.9 117 333 0.26 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  3  7   49.3 1
44 Deep Run 2 8 0.54 9.46 1.46 42.6 116 334 0.26 5 AAA Central Colonial  6  5   62.2 4
45 Warwick 2 8 0.41 9.59 1.59 52.2 98 315 0.24 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  7   62.3 2
46 Varina 4 6 2.41 7.59 1.59 69.1 185 283 0.40 5 AAA Central Capital  5  6   64.4 1
47 Tuscarora 13 1 11.19 2.81 1.81 100.5 564 338 0.63 5 AAA II Potomac  5  6   70.3 -8
48 Princess Anne 3 7 1.13 8.87 1.87 55.7 141 302 0.32 5 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   50.0 0
49 R.E. Lee(S) 3 7 0.79 9.21 2.21 44.1 155 384 0.29 5 AAA Northern National  5  5   56.2 2
50 Maury 4 7 1.69 9.31 2.31 60.7 169 318 0.35 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  3  7   44.7 -1
51 Hickory 3 7 0.25 9.75 2.75 58.1 86 334 0.20 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  1  8   43.4 -2
52 Halifax County 5 6 1.15 9.85 3.85 45.0 155 344 0.31 5 AAA Northwest Piedmont  2  8   27.2 -3