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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2015 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Western Branch 6 5 8.54 2.46 -2.54 83.1 309 195 0.61 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  6  5   74.1 0
2 Thomas Dale 9 5 11.37 2.63 -2.37 80.7 399 232 0.63 6 AAA Central Central  9  3   85.2 0
3 Cosby(C) 8 5 10.07 2.93 -2.07 71.6 343 217 0.61 6 AAA Central Dominion  5  6   68.2 -3
4 Chantilly 6 6 8.06 3.94 -2.06 72.1 352 270 0.57 6 AAA Northern Concorde  4  6   65.2 -2
5 Manchester 6 5 7.96 3.04 -1.96 64.6 344 241 0.59 6 AAA Central Dominion  11  2   93.8 5
6 Langley 3 7 4.79 5.21 -1.79 53.7 256 264 0.49 6 AAA Northern Liberty  2  8   53.9 -1
7 Battlefield 9 3 10.69 1.31 -1.69 79.7 324 149 0.68 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  7  4   64.5 -2
8 James Robinson 9 4 10.65 2.35 -1.65 93.5 359 205 0.64 6 AAA Northern Concorde  4  7   70.5 -5
9 Lake Braddock 11 2 12.52 0.48 -1.52 97.5 499 149 0.77 6 AAA Northern Patriot  11  2   99.1 0
10 Freedom 3 7 4.44 5.56 -1.44 55.4 309 336 0.48 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  8  3   78.0 5
11 C.D. Hylton 9 3 10.36 1.64 -1.36 78.8 384 194 0.66 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  6  5   63.4 -3
12 Riverbend 5 7 6.26 5.74 -1.26 70.2 255 247 0.51 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  8  4   82.4 3
13 South Lakes 9 3 10.13 1.87 -1.13 79.6 400 214 0.65 6 AAA Northern Liberty  12  2   94.4 3
14 James Madison 9 2 9.96 1.04 -0.96 84.0 358 155 0.70 6 AAA Northern Liberty  11  2   94.3 2
15 Ocean Lakes 12 1 12.87 0.13 -0.87 98.7 651 119 0.85 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   66.3 -7
16 Kellam 5 6 5.75 5.25 -0.75 63.9 301 291 0.51 6 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   54.1 -2
17 Stonewall Jackson(M) 0 10 0.74 9.26 -0.74 36.6 137 349 0.28 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  2  8   39.8 2
18 Woodside 7 4 7.70 3.30 -0.70 81.1 364 266 0.58 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  10  3   92.5 3
19 Gar-Field 0 10 0.63 9.37 -0.63 37.1 167 453 0.27 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  1  9   35.0 1
20 Centreville 4 7 4.54 6.46 -0.54 70.3 264 301 0.47 6 AAA Northern Concorde  9  3   89.2 5
21 Washington-Lee 5 6 5.53 5.47 -0.53 61.5 219 218 0.50 6 AAA Northern Liberty  5  6   66.5 0
22 Frank Cox 8 4 8.48 3.52 -0.48 81.4 346 250 0.58 6 AAA Eastern Beach  9  2   88.0 1
23 Oakton 5 6 5.41 5.59 -0.41 72.0 252 255 0.50 6 AAA Northern Concorde  4  7   70.6 -1
24 Bayside 7 4 7.38 3.62 -0.38 76.7 302 232 0.57 6 AAA Eastern Beach  9  3   86.1 2
25 Grassfield 8 4 8.38 3.62 -0.38 87.1 356 261 0.58 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  9  3   84.4 1
26 T.C. Williams 2 8 2.36 7.64 -0.36 54.2 156 241 0.39 6 AAA Northern Patriot  5  6   79.2 3
27 Franklin County 0 10 0.25 9.75 -0.25 22.9 98 379 0.21 6 AAA Central Piedmont  4  6   42.5 4
28 West Potomac 8 4 8.17 3.83 -0.17 84.4 416 314 0.57 6 AAA Northern Patriot  9  3   90.6 1
29 Annandale 5 6 5.12 5.88 -0.12 65.3 303 319 0.49 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   58.6 -2
30 James River(C) 4 6 4.12 5.88 -0.12 53.1 212 242 0.47 6 AAA Central Dominion  6  5   74.7 2
31 Osbourn 4 6 4.06 5.94 -0.06 55.0 238 274 0.46 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  1  9   28.9 -3
32 Oscar Smith 13 1 13.05 0.95 -0.05 103.2 462 175 0.73 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  13  2   100.9 0
33 Osbourn Park 1 9 0.89 9.11 0.11 39.2 145 343 0.30 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  1  9   30.0 0
34 Forest Park 6 5 5.83 5.17 0.17 67.3 301 288 0.51 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  4  6   55.1 -2
35 Westfield * 14 1 13.75 1.25 0.25 108.6 459 189 0.71 6 AAA Northern Concorde  13  2   104.9 -1
36 McLean 1 9 0.64 9.36 0.36 39.5 112 302 0.27 6 AAA Northern Liberty  1  9   39.8 0
37 Woodbridge 6 5 5.63 5.37 0.37 68.7 231 227 0.50 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   48.8 -3
38 Fairfax 1 9 0.59 9.41 0.41 35.7 115 320 0.26 6 AAA Northern Liberty  0  10   36.0 -1
39 West Springfield 6 5 5.55 5.45 0.45 78.9 319 317 0.50 6 AAA Northern Patriot  2  8   58.7 -4
40 Colonial Forge 9 2 8.14 2.86 0.86 90.7 343 233 0.60 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  11  3   86.6 2
41 South County 13 1 12.08 1.92 0.92 106.9 550 278 0.66 6 AAA Northern Patriot  8  4   89.5 -5
42 Clover Hill 3 7 2.08 7.92 0.92 44.3 167 274 0.38 6 AAA Central Dominion  1  9   40.8 -2
43 Herndon 2 8 0.91 9.09 1.09 49.6 170 398 0.30 6 AAA Northern Concorde  1  9   44.2 -1
44 Yorktown 3 7 1.84 8.16 1.16 52.7 175 304 0.37 6 AAA Northern Liberty  4  6   61.8 1
45 Landstown 4 6 2.83 7.17 1.17 57.8 170 240 0.41 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  3   82.6 4
46 Hayfield 6 5 4.66 6.34 1.34 70.3 297 333 0.47 6 AAA Northern Liberty  9  3   83.9 3
47 Patriot 4 6 2.50 7.50 1.50 58.6 239 359 0.40 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  7  4   65.4 3
48 Mount Vernon 2 8 0.46 9.54 1.54 45.9 130 401 0.24 6 AAA Northern Patriot  5  6   70.9 3
49 W.T. Woodson 4 7 2.45 8.55 1.55 65.1 248 394 0.39 6 AAA Northern Patriot  5  6   69.9 1
50 Granby 5 5 3.07 6.93 1.93 66.1 185 250 0.43 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  5  5   56.1 0
51 First Colonial 4 6 1.43 8.57 2.57 55.7 149 289 0.34 6 AAA Eastern Beach  1  9   41.8 -3
52 Tallwood 4 6 0.70 9.30 3.30 64.0 132 345 0.28 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  3   82.2 4