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1999-16 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2016 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Covington 5 5 7.46 2.54 -2.46 30.9 313 210 0.60 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer
2 Charles City 6 5 8.28 2.72 -2.28 20.2 379 251 0.60 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater
3 West Point 4 6 6.19 3.81 -2.19 -6.4 303 253 0.54 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater
4 Altavista 9 4 11.15 1.85 -2.15 54.9 451 232 0.66 1 A D-1 Eastern Dogwood
5 Middlesex 4 6 6.04 3.96 -2.04 -5.3 319 273 0.54 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater
6 Narrows 6 5 7.68 3.32 -1.68 34.1 348 255 0.58 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire
7 George Wythe(W) 12 2 13.61 0.39 -1.61 62.6 629 168 0.79 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee
8 Galax 11 3 12.56 1.44 -1.56 63.7 536 240 0.69 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire
9 Parry McCluer 11 2 12.47 0.53 -1.47 53.1 515 160 0.76 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer
10 J.I. Burton 8 4 9.40 2.60 -1.40 35.9 438 272 0.62 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland
11 Essex 6 6 7.20 4.80 -1.20 38.5 280 241 0.54 1 A D-2 Eastern Northern Neck
12 Patrick Henry(GS) 8 4 9.17 2.83 -1.17 42.0 354 229 0.61 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee
13 Lunenburg 8 3 9.07 1.93 -1.07 43.8 408 230 0.64 1 A D-1 Eastern James River
14 Northampton 4 6 4.85 5.15 -0.85 0.2 366 374 0.49 1 A D-1 Eastern Eastern Shore-A
15 Auburn 3 7 3.82 6.18 -0.82 20.3 231 276 0.46 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers
16 Riverheads * 13 1 13.68 0.32 -0.68 71.8 641 159 0.80 1 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah
17 Northumberland 7 4 7.64 3.36 -0.64 20.0 340 251 0.58 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck
18 Colonial Beach 9 3 9.59 2.41 -0.59 41.9 365 219 0.63 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck
19 Franklin 7 4 7.49 3.51 -0.49 42.7 322 243 0.57 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers
20 Rural Retreat 4 7 4.33 6.67 -0.33 28.6 335 393 0.46 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee
21 Hurley 11 1 11.31 0.69 -0.31 49.8 630 223 0.74 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond
22 Twin Valley 6 5 6.25 4.75 -0.25 15.2 340 307 0.53 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond
23 Honaker 3 8 3.24 7.76 -0.24 16.7 256 354 0.42 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond
24 Rye Cove 0 9 0.17 8.83 -0.17 -14.3 96 414 0.19 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland
25 Lancaster 3 6 3.16 5.84 -0.16 6.2 250 314 0.44 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck
26 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 0 10 0.07 9.93 -0.07 17.7 63 396 0.14 1 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah
27 Windsor 0 8 0.03 7.97 -0.03 -0.1 61 475 0.11 1 A D-2 Eastern Tri-Rivers
28 King & Queen 0 8 0.00 8.00 -0.00 -30.1 18 491 0.04 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater
29 Craig County 0 10 0.00 10.00 -0.00 -7.3 14 462 0.03 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer
30 Castlewood 6 5 5.91 5.09 0.09 24.1 316 299 0.51 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland
31 Sussex Central 13 1 12.88 1.12 0.12 66.1 444 180 0.71 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers
32 Bland(RG) 4 6 3.86 6.14 0.14 19.5 267 317 0.46 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire
33 Rappahannock 1 7 0.77 7.23 0.23 -6.5 102 234 0.30 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck
34 Eastside 2 8 1.62 8.38 0.38 5.6 205 377 0.35 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland
35 Northwood 1 9 0.42 9.58 0.58 4.9 151 481 0.24 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee
36 Cumberland 1 8 0.35 8.65 0.65 -9.2 105 344 0.23 1 A D-1 Eastern James River
37 Mathews 1 7 0.33 7.67 0.67 -18.6 120 383 0.24 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater
38 Chilhowie 9 3 8.28 3.72 0.72 48.2 440 327 0.57 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee
39 Surry 4 7 3.28 7.72 0.72 16.2 246 338 0.42 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers
40 Eastern Montgomery 1 9 0.14 9.86 0.86 2.8 82 399 0.17 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers
41 Holston 1 9 0.08 9.92 0.92 9.1 83 494 0.14 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee
42 Luray 7 5 5.77 6.23 1.23 46.1 282 290 0.49 1 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah
43 Twin Springs 5 6 3.74 7.26 1.26 20.7 288 368 0.44 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland
44 Thomas Walker 2 8 0.73 9.27 1.27 -6.6 150 385 0.28 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland
45 William Campbell 5 6 3.56 7.44 1.44 38.1 278 365 0.43 1 A D-1 Eastern Dogwood
46 Fort Chiswell 9 4 7.40 5.60 1.60 52.4 388 350 0.53 1 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire
47 Radford 5 6 3.39 7.61 1.61 37.6 201 271 0.43 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers
48 Bath County 2 7 0.33 8.67 1.67 13.0 96 323 0.23 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer