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1999-17 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2016 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Covington 5 5 7.46 2.54 -2.46 30.9 313 210 0.60 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  7  3   25.8 2
2 Charles City 6 5 8.28 2.72 -2.28 20.2 379 251 0.60 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  2  7   -5.0 -4
3 West Point 4 6 6.19 3.81 -2.19 -6.4 303 253 0.54 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  7  2   17.6 3
4 Altavista 9 4 11.15 1.85 -2.15 54.9 451 232 0.66 1 A D-1 Eastern Dogwood  2  8   28.8 -7
5 Middlesex 4 6 6.04 3.96 -2.04 -5.3 319 273 0.54 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  5  4   11.1 1
6 Narrows 6 5 7.68 3.32 -1.68 34.1 348 255 0.58 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire  9  1   38.2 3
7 George Wythe(W) 12 2 13.61 0.39 -1.61 62.6 629 168 0.79 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  6  4   40.7 -6
8 Galax 11 3 12.56 1.44 -1.56 63.7 536 240 0.69 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire  7  3   52.3 -4
9 Parry McCluer 11 2 12.47 0.53 -1.47 53.1 515 160 0.76 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  4  6   12.7 -7
10 J.I. Burton 8 4 9.40 2.60 -1.40 35.9 438 272 0.62 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  5  4   19.8 -3
11 Essex 6 6 7.20 4.80 -1.20 38.5 280 241 0.54 1 A D-2 Eastern Northern Neck  9  1   44.6 3
12 Patrick Henry(GS) 8 4 9.17 2.83 -1.17 42.0 354 229 0.61 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  8  2   31.4 0
13 Lunenburg 8 3 9.07 1.93 -1.07 43.8 408 230 0.64 1 A D-1 Eastern James River  4  6   19.6 -4
14 Northampton 4 6 4.85 5.15 -0.85 0.2 366 374 0.49 1 A D-1 Eastern Eastern Shore-A  4  4   2.8 0
15 Auburn 3 7 3.82 6.18 -0.82 20.3 231 276 0.46 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers  4  6   21.9 1
16 Riverheads * 13 1 13.68 0.32 -0.68 71.8 641 159 0.80 1 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  8  2   65.2 -5
17 Northumberland 7 4 7.64 3.36 -0.64 20.0 340 251 0.58 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  6  4   27.0 -1
18 Colonial Beach 9 3 9.59 2.41 -0.59 41.9 365 219 0.63 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  7  3   34.5 -2
19 Franklin 7 4 7.49 3.51 -0.49 42.7 322 243 0.57 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  3  7   12.7 -4
20 Rural Retreat 4 7 4.33 6.67 -0.33 28.6 335 393 0.46 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  2  8   9.9 -2
21 Hurley 11 1 11.31 0.69 -0.31 49.8 630 223 0.74 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond  6  4   21.6 -5
22 Twin Valley 6 5 6.25 4.75 -0.25 15.2 340 307 0.53 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond  3  7   -9.0 -3
23 Honaker 3 8 3.24 7.76 -0.24 16.7 256 354 0.42 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond  3  7   13.1 0
24 Rye Cove 0 9 0.17 8.83 -0.17 -14.3 96 414 0.19 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  1  9   -23.0 1
25 Lancaster 3 6 3.16 5.84 -0.16 6.2 250 314 0.44 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  1  8   -9.3 -2
26 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 0 10 0.07 9.93 -0.07 17.7 63 396 0.14 1 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  0  10   14.8 0
27 Windsor 0 8 0.03 7.97 -0.03 -0.1 61 475 0.11 1 A D-2 Eastern Tri-Rivers  0  10   -10.0 0
28 King & Queen 0 8 0.00 8.00 -0.00 -30.1 18 491 0.04 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  0  4   -35.6 0
29 Craig County 0 10 0.00 10.00 -0.00 -7.3 14 462 0.03 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  0  10   -23.6 0
30 Castlewood 6 5 5.91 5.09 0.09 24.1 316 299 0.51 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  5  5   8.4 -1
31 Sussex Central 13 1 12.88 1.12 0.12 66.1 444 180 0.71 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  7  2   45.7 -6
32 Bland(RG) 4 6 3.86 6.14 0.14 19.5 267 317 0.46 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire  3  7   11.0 -1
33 Rappahannock 1 7 0.77 7.23 0.23 -6.5 102 234 0.30 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  2  7   1.5 1
34 Eastside 2 8 1.62 8.38 0.38 5.6 205 377 0.35 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  6  4   22.3 4
35 Northwood 1 9 0.42 9.58 0.58 4.9 151 481 0.24 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  3  7   2.2 2
36 Cumberland 1 8 0.35 8.65 0.65 -9.2 105 344 0.23 1 A D-1 Eastern James River  0  10   -10.5 -1
37 Mathews 1 7 0.33 7.67 0.67 -18.6 120 383 0.24 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  0  7   -20.6 -1
38 Chilhowie 9 3 8.28 3.72 0.72 48.2 440 327 0.57 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  7  3   38.3 -2
39 Surry 4 7 3.28 7.72 0.72 16.2 246 338 0.42 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  2  7   6.1 -2
40 Eastern Montgomery 1 9 0.14 9.86 0.86 2.8 82 399 0.17 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers  3  7   -0.7 2
41 Holston 1 9 0.08 9.92 0.92 9.1 83 494 0.14 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  2  8   0.2 1
42 Luray 7 5 5.77 6.23 1.23 46.1 282 290 0.49 1 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  9  1   59.9 2
43 Twin Springs 5 6 3.74 7.26 1.26 20.7 288 368 0.44 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  2  8   -14.6 -3
44 Thomas Walker 2 8 0.73 9.27 1.27 -6.6 150 385 0.28 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  6  4   1.1 4
45 William Campbell 5 6 3.56 7.44 1.44 38.1 278 365 0.43 1 A D-1 Eastern Dogwood  8  2   57.2 3
46 Fort Chiswell 9 4 7.40 5.60 1.60 52.4 388 350 0.53 1 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire  7  3   50.2 -2
47 Radford 5 6 3.39 7.61 1.61 37.6 201 271 0.43 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers  2  8   30.7 -3
48 Bath County 2 7 0.33 8.67 1.67 13.0 96 323 0.23 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  2  8   -8.4 0