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1999-16 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2016 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Giles 8 4 10.55 1.45 -2.55 55.8 429 206 0.68 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers
2 Martinsville 8 4 10.27 1.73 -2.27 50.1 422 218 0.66 2 A IV Piedmont
3 Clarke County 10 3 12.24 0.76 -2.24 58.8 503 180 0.74 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run
4 Marion 7 4 8.90 2.10 -1.90 49.2 379 222 0.63 2 A IV Hogoheegee
5 Bluestone 5 6 6.84 4.16 -1.84 24.0 256 213 0.55 2 A D-2 Eastern James River
6 Dan River 9 2 10.74 0.26 -1.74 65.5 407 102 0.80 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood
7 Buffalo Gap 8 4 9.66 2.34 -1.66 54.5 301 178 0.63 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah
8 Brunswick 4 6 5.46 4.54 -1.46 30.7 196 183 0.52 2 A I Tri-Rivers
9 Wilson Memorial 3 7 3.96 6.04 -0.96 30.5 283 331 0.46 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah
10 Glenvar 9 3 9.79 2.21 -0.79 56.2 316 182 0.63 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers
11 Richlands 13 2 13.77 1.23 -0.77 77.8 567 232 0.71 2 AA IV Southwest
12 Union 11 2 11.63 1.37 -0.63 65.5 497 225 0.69 2 A D-2 Western Mountain
13 King William 7 4 7.59 3.41 -0.59 23.1 370 275 0.57 2 A D-2 Eastern Tidewater
14 James River(B) 3 7 3.49 6.51 -0.49 25.2 212 267 0.44 2 A D-2 Western Pioneer
15 Ridgeview 2 8 2.49 7.51 -0.49 15.6 188 283 0.40 2 A Mountain
16 George Mason 2 8 2.45 7.55 -0.45 10.0 190 288 0.40 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run
17 Goochland 13 1 13.45 0.55 -0.45 61.7 500 153 0.77 2 A D-2 Eastern James River
18 East Rockingham 9 4 9.39 3.61 -0.39 59.8 503 353 0.59 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah
19 Page 3 7 3.34 6.66 -0.34 28.1 267 345 0.44 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah
20 Stuarts Draft 13 1 13.31 0.69 -0.31 71.9 476 159 0.75 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah
21 Gate City 5 6 5.26 5.74 -0.26 51.9 308 318 0.49 2 A D-2 Western Mountain
22 Greensville 1 7 1.13 6.87 -0.13 6.4 141 275 0.34 2 A I Tri-Rivers
23 Graham 11 2 11.08 1.92 -0.08 72.5 521 272 0.66 2 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire
24 Prince Edward 5 6 5.06 5.94 -0.06 24.1 293 311 0.49 2 A I James River
25 Tazewell 2 8 2.05 7.95 -0.05 29.6 292 482 0.38 2 A IV Southwest
26 Bruton 0 10 0.04 9.96 -0.04 13.5 56 435 0.11 2 A I Bay Rivers
27 Virginia 3 8 3.01 7.99 -0.01 38.4 283 406 0.41 2 A D-2 Western Southwest
28 Nelson County 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 12.6 42 516 0.08 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood
29 Randolph-Henry 2 8 1.93 8.07 0.07 7.5 185 314 0.37 2 A D-2 Eastern James River
30 Central(W) 8 3 7.83 3.17 0.17 50.5 362 259 0.58 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run
31 Appomattox * 15 0 14.80 0.20 0.20 86.0 680 139 0.83 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood
32 Nottoway 4 7 3.78 7.22 0.22 23.7 265 337 0.44 2 A D-2 Eastern James River
33 Arcadia 3 6 2.74 6.26 0.26 10.8 246 334 0.42 2 A D-2 Eastern Eastern Shore-A
34 Madison County 6 6 5.57 6.43 0.43 41.0 386 407 0.49 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run
35 Grayson County 2 8 1.38 8.62 0.62 24.1 174 343 0.34 2 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire
36 Buckingham County 2 8 1.37 8.63 0.63 14.7 190 376 0.34 2 A D-2 Eastern James River
37 Floyd County 6 5 5.35 5.65 0.65 36.2 243 248 0.49 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers
38 Wise Central 3 7 2.34 7.66 0.66 31.2 176 273 0.39 2 A D-2 Western Mountain
39 Amelia County 4 6 3.33 6.67 0.67 16.0 191 247 0.44 2 A D-2 Eastern James River
40 Lee 6 5 5.08 5.92 0.92 36.6 241 255 0.49 2 A D-2 Western Mountain
41 R.E. Lee(ST) 4 7 3.06 7.94 0.94 33.7 210 299 0.41 2 A III Valley
42 John Battle 5 6 3.96 7.04 1.04 37.4 240 297 0.45 2 A D-2 Western Mountain
43 Lebanon 4 7 2.75 8.25 1.25 30.2 219 329 0.40 2 A D-2 Western Southwest
44 Gretna 3 7 1.54 8.46 1.46 34.1 210 395 0.35 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood
45 Nandua 6 4 4.50 5.50 1.50 32.9 324 349 0.48 2 A D-2 Eastern Eastern Shore-A
46 Chatham 3 7 1.38 8.62 1.62 24.2 191 377 0.34 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood
47 Washington & Lee 4 7 1.55 9.45 2.45 14.4 214 418 0.34 2 A D-2 Eastern Northern Neck
48 Grundy 7 4 4.36 6.64 2.64 39.2 255 298 0.46 2 A D-2 Western Black Diamond
49 Strasburg 8 4 4.84 7.16 3.16 46.6