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1999-16 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2016 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Phoebus 11 3 13.22 0.78 -2.22 82.9 366 128 0.74 3 AA Eastern Peninsula
2 James Monroe 9 3 11.13 0.87 -2.13 67.6 399 155 0.72 3 AA I Battlefield
3 Heritage(Lyn) 8 5 10.11 2.89 -2.11 72.4 455 286 0.61 3 AA III Seminole
4 Monticello 3 7 4.77 5.23 -1.77 43.7 263 272 0.49 3 AA II Jefferson
5 Poquoson 6 5 7.62 3.38 -1.62 50.4 277 205 0.57 3 AA I Bay Rivers
6 Southampton 6 4 7.37 2.63 -1.37 43.8 303 207 0.59 3 AA I Tri-Rivers
7 Turner Ashby 6 5 7.27 3.73 -1.27 42.7 356 278 0.56 3 AA III Valley
8 Spotswood 8 4 9.25 2.75 -1.25 53.7 301 192 0.61 3 AA III Valley
9 Lord Botetourt 8 3 9.23 1.77 -1.23 62.4 489 265 0.65 3 AA III Blue Ridge
10 Brentsville 10 3 11.23 1.77 -1.23 68.5 460 232 0.66 3 AA II Evergreen
11 Staunton River 13 2 13.89 1.11 -0.89 80.5 766 300 0.72 3 AA III Blue Ridge
12 Park View(SH) 8 2 8.85 1.15 -0.85 50.9 375 176 0.68 3 AA I Tri-Rivers
13 Hidden Valley 5 6 5.85 5.15 -0.85 54.4 394 376 0.51 3 AA IV River Ridge
14 Abingdon 9 2 9.78 1.22 -0.78 72.4 437 202 0.68 3 AA IV Southwest
15 Rockbridge County 0 10 0.76 9.24 -0.76 24.7 158 399 0.28 3 AA III Blue Ridge
16 Blacksburg * 10 5 10.73 4.27 -0.73 72.4 550 391 0.58 3 AA IV River Ridge
17 Colonial Heights 0 10 0.67 9.33 -0.67 28.2 204 540 0.27 3 AA Central Central
18 Tabb 7 5 7.61 4.39 -0.61 55.5 330 269 0.55 3 AA I Bay Rivers
19 New Kent 4 6 4.55 5.45 -0.55 34.1 203 217 0.48 3 AA I Bay Rivers
20 Warhill 4 7 4.44 6.56 -0.44 39.5 322 372 0.46 3 AA I Bay Rivers
21 Lakeland 7 6 7.44 5.56 -0.44 65.7 324 291 0.53 3 AA Eastern Southeastern
22 Fort Defiance 0 10 0.16 9.84 -0.16 12.7 96 441 0.18 3 AA III Valley
23 Armstrong 0 10 0.04 9.96 -0.04 24.0 61 451 0.12 3 AA Central Capital
24 Western Albemarle 4 7 3.98 7.02 0.02 51.0 307 379 0.45 3 AA II Jefferson
25 Brookville 9 3 8.95 3.05 0.05 71.6 408 274 0.60 3 AA III Seminole
26 Petersburg 5 7 4.93 7.07 0.07 54.6 238 272 0.47 3 AA Central Central
27 York 1 9 0.78 9.22 0.22 23.7 118 295 0.29 3 AA I Bay Rivers
28 Cave Spring 3 7 2.70 7.30 0.30 41.9 186 269 0.41 3 AA IV River Ridge
29 Waynesboro 5 6 4.65 6.35 0.35 45.5 237 266 0.47 3 AA III Valley
30 Hopewell 10 4 9.63 4.37 0.37 76.3 480 358 0.57 3 AA Central Central
31 Broadway 1 9 0.60 9.40 0.40 16.4 131 363 0.27 3 AA III Valley
32 Rustburg 10 3 9.52 3.48 0.48 78.9 382 263 0.59 3 AA III Seminole
33 Christiansburg 1 9 0.43 9.57 0.57 30.5 161 509 0.24 3 AA IV River Ridge
34 Booker T. Washington 1 9 0.31 9.69 0.69 25.3 100 360 0.22 3 AA Eastern Eastern
35 Spotsylvania 1 9 0.25 9.75 0.75 28.1 119 465 0.20 3 AA I Battlefield
36 Culpeper County 3 8 2.24 8.76 0.76 37.1 216 358 0.38 3 AA II Evergreen
37 Patrick County 1 9 0.21 9.79 0.79 6.1 95 397 0.19 3 AA IV Piedmont
38 Magna Vista 9 3 8.17 3.83 0.83 64.6 397 300 0.57 3 AA IV Piedmont
39 Fluvanna 1 9 0.14 9.86 0.86 29.8 78 375 0.17 3 AA II Jefferson
40 Liberty(Bed) 2 8 1.12 8.88 0.88 42.1 184 396 0.32 3 AA III Seminole
41 John Marshall 1 9 0.11 9.89 0.89 24.6 80 428 0.16 3 AA Central Colonial
42 George Wythe(R) 1 10 0.07 10.93 0.93 39.4 82 519 0.14 3 AA Central Dominion
43 Riverside 2 8 1.04 8.96 0.96 17.3 150 333 0.31 3 AA Dulles
44 Northside 5 7 3.97 8.03 1.03 57.6 322 418 0.44 3 AA III Blue Ridge
45 Skyline 2 8 0.91 9.09 1.09 24.2 181 424 0.30 3 AA II Northwestern
46 Warren County 3 6 1.71 7.29 1.29 28.0 138 236 0.37 3 AA II Bull Run
47 Manassas Park 2 8 0.50 9.50 1.50 31.8 129 385 0.25 3 AA D-2 Eastern Evergreen
48 Alleghany 4 7 2.29 8.71 1.71 43.5 216 354 0.38 3 AA III Blue Ridge
49 William Monroe 6 5 3.52 7.48 2.48 46.7 246 325 0.43 3 AA D-2 Eastern Bull Run
50 Tunstall 5 6 2.23 8.77 2.77 42.7 212 352 0.38 3 AA IV Piedmont
51 Thomas Jefferson(R) 4 6 1.19 8.81 2.81 43.2 149 313 0.32 3 AA Central Colonial
52 Norcom 6 5 2.83 8.17 3.17 58.1 179 265 0.40 3 AA Eastern Eastern