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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2016 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Phoebus 11 3 13.22 0.78 -2.22 82.9 366 128 0.74 3 AA Eastern Peninsula  10  1   77.9 -1
2 James Monroe 9 3 11.13 0.87 -2.13 67.6 399 155 0.72 3 AA I Battlefield  7  7   60.0 -2
3 Heritage(Lyn) 8 5 10.11 2.89 -2.11 72.4 455 286 0.61 3 AA III Seminole  13  2   83.0 5
4 Monticello 3 7 4.77 5.23 -1.77 43.7 263 272 0.49 3 AA II Jefferson  9  3   70.1 6
5 Poquoson 6 5 7.62 3.38 -1.62 50.4 277 205 0.57 3 AA I Bay Rivers  10  4   68.1 4
6 Southampton 6 4 7.37 2.63 -1.37 43.8 303 207 0.59 3 AA I Tri-Rivers  5  4   44.8 -1
7 Turner Ashby 6 5 7.27 3.73 -1.27 42.7 356 278 0.56 3 AA III Valley  2  8   34.9 -4
8 Spotswood 8 4 9.25 2.75 -1.25 53.7 301 192 0.61 3 AA III Valley  8  4   54.3 0
9 Lord Botetourt 8 3 9.23 1.77 -1.23 62.4 489 265 0.65 3 AA III Blue Ridge  10  3   78.0 2
10 Brentsville 10 3 11.23 1.77 -1.23 68.5 460 232 0.66 3 AA II Evergreen  4  7   35.3 -6
11 Staunton River 13 2 13.89 1.11 -0.89 80.5 766 300 0.72 3 AA III Blue Ridge  13  1   82.5 0
12 Park View(SH) 8 2 8.85 1.15 -0.85 50.9 375 176 0.68 3 AA I Tri-Rivers  4  4   31.7 -4
13 Hidden Valley 5 6 5.85 5.15 -0.85 54.4 394 376 0.51 3 AA IV River Ridge  2  8   45.5 -3
14 Abingdon 9 2 9.78 1.22 -0.78 72.4 437 202 0.68 3 AA IV Southwest  6  5   57.0 -3
15 Rockbridge County 0 10 0.76 9.24 -0.76 24.7 158 399 0.28 3 AA III Blue Ridge  6  5   46.9 6
16 Blacksburg * 10 5 10.73 4.27 -0.73 72.4 550 391 0.58 3 AA IV River Ridge  11  2   91.6 1
17 Colonial Heights 0 10 0.67 9.33 -0.67 28.2 204 540 0.27 3 AA Central Central  3  7   49.9 3
18 Tabb 7 5 7.61 4.39 -0.61 55.5 330 269 0.55 3 AA I Bay Rivers  3  7   46.5 -4
19 New Kent 4 6 4.55 5.45 -0.55 34.1 203 217 0.48 3 AA I Bay Rivers  4  6   48.3 0
20 Warhill 4 7 4.44 6.56 -0.44 39.5 322 372 0.46 3 AA I Bay Rivers  7  4   68.0 3
21 Lakeland 7 6 7.44 5.56 -0.44 65.7 324 291 0.53 3 AA Eastern Southeastern  4  7   61.8 -3
22 Fort Defiance 0 10 0.16 9.84 -0.16 12.7 96 441 0.18 3 AA III Valley  1  9   12.5 1
23 Armstrong 0 10 0.04 9.96 -0.04 24.0 61 451 0.12 3 AA Central Capital  2  8   41.2 2
24 Western Albemarle 4 7 3.98 7.02 0.02 51.0 307 379 0.45 3 AA II Jefferson  2  8   42.1 -2
25 Brookville 9 3 8.95 3.05 0.05 71.6 408 274 0.60 3 AA III Seminole  10  3   79.0 1
26 Petersburg 5 7 4.93 7.07 0.07 54.6 238 272 0.47 3 AA Central Central  4  6   54.1 -1
27 York 1 9 0.78 9.22 0.22 23.7 118 295 0.29 3 AA I Bay Rivers  9  4   67.6 8
28 Cave Spring 3 7 2.70 7.30 0.30 41.9 186 269 0.41 3 AA IV River Ridge  2  9   44.8 -1
29 Waynesboro 5 6 4.65 6.35 0.35 45.5 237 266 0.47 3 AA III Valley  4  7   38.3 -1
30 Hopewell 10 4 9.63 4.37 0.37 76.3 480 358 0.57 3 AA Central Central  11  4   80.8 1
31 Broadway 1 9 0.60 9.40 0.40 16.4 131 363 0.27 3 AA III Valley  2  8   22.7 1
32 Rustburg 10 3 9.52 3.48 0.48 78.9 382 263 0.59 3 AA III Seminole  3  8   51.8 -7
33 Christiansburg 1 9 0.43 9.57 0.57 30.5 161 509 0.24 3 AA IV River Ridge  0  10   31.6 -1
34 Booker T. Washington 1 9 0.31 9.69 0.69 25.3 100 360 0.22 3 AA Eastern Eastern  4  6   50.2 3
35 Spotsylvania 1 9 0.25 9.75 0.75 28.1 119 465 0.20 3 AA I Battlefield  4  7   45.4 3
36 Culpeper County 3 8 2.24 8.76 0.76 37.1 216 358 0.38 3 AA II Evergreen  6  7   47.7 3
37 Patrick County 1 9 0.21 9.79 0.79 6.1 95 397 0.19 3 AA IV Piedmont  1  9   13.7 0
38 Magna Vista 9 3 8.17 3.83 0.83 64.6 397 300 0.57 3 AA IV Piedmont  8  4   62.4 -1
39 Fluvanna 1 9 0.14 9.86 0.86 29.8 78 375 0.17 3 AA II Jefferson  2  8   33.3 1
40 Liberty(Bed) 2 8 1.12 8.88 0.88 42.1 184 396 0.32 3 AA III Seminole  2  9   49.9 0
41 John Marshall 1 9 0.11 9.89 0.89 24.6 80 428 0.16 3 AA Central Colonial  1  9   26.4 0
42 George Wythe(R) 1 10 0.07 10.93 0.93 39.4 82 519 0.14 3 AA Central Dominion  0  10   24.6 -1
43 Riverside 2 8 1.04 8.96 0.96 17.3 150 333 0.31 3 AA Dulles  4  6   42.1 2
44 Northside 5 7 3.97 8.03 1.03 57.6 322 418 0.44 3 AA III Blue Ridge  5  7   66.2 0
45 Skyline 2 8 0.91 9.09 1.09 24.2 181 424 0.30 3 AA II Northwestern  4  7   32.0 2
46 Warren County 3 6 1.71 7.29 1.29 28.0 138 236 0.37 3 AA II Bull Run  7  5   46.8 4
47 Manassas Park 2 8 0.50 9.50 1.50 31.8 129 385 0.25 3 AA D-2 Eastern Evergreen  1  9   14.8 -1
48 Alleghany 4 7 2.29 8.71 1.71 43.5 216 354 0.38 3 AA III Blue Ridge  4  7   30.9 0
49 William Monroe 6 5 3.52 7.48 2.48 46.7 246 325 0.43 3 AA D-2 Eastern Bull Run  2  8   15.1 -4
50 Tunstall 5 6 2.23 8.77 2.77 42.7 212 352 0.38 3 AA IV Piedmont  3  7   34.1 -2
51 Thomas Jefferson(R) 4 6 1.19 8.81 2.81 43.2 149 313 0.32 3 AA Central Colonial  7  4   57.0 3
52 Norcom 6 5 2.83 8.17 3.17 58.1 179 265 0.40 3 AA Eastern Eastern  8  2   81.0 2