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1999-16 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2016 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Henrico 6 5 9.19 1.81 -3.19 65.0 347 190 0.65 5 AAA Central Capital
2 Orange 6 5 8.41 2.59 -2.41 64.8 340 220 0.61 5 AAA Northwest Jefferson
3 Salem(VB) 8 4 10.40 1.60 -2.40 77.3 290 145 0.67 5 AAA Eastern Beach
4 Princess Anne 3 7 5.20 4.80 -2.20 50.0 273 265 0.51 5 AAA Eastern Beach
5 Norview 11 3 13.17 0.83 -2.17 81.0 576 207 0.74 5 AAA Eastern Eastern
6 Falls Church 7 4 9.16 1.84 -2.16 66.0 433 239 0.64 5 AAA Northern National
7 Briar Woods 4 7 5.79 5.21 -1.79 74.6 309 297 0.51 5 AAA II Potomac
8 L.C. Bird 11 2 12.74 0.26 -1.74 93.7 581 138 0.81 5 AAA Central Dominion
9 Mills Godwin 5 5 6.69 3.31 -1.69 59.0 266 205 0.56 5 AAA Central Colonial
10 Indian River 7 5 8.67 3.33 -1.67 68.0 325 228 0.59 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern
11 Varina 5 6 6.61 4.39 -1.61 64.4 277 238 0.54 5 AAA Central Capital
12 Stone Bridge 12 3 13.43 1.57 -1.43 99.8 507 229 0.69 5 AAA Northern Potomac
13 Lee-Davis 8 3 9.31 1.69 -1.31 75.6 354 188 0.65 5 AAA Central Capital
14 Broad Run 9 3 10.25 1.75 -1.25 86.7 302 157 0.66 5 AAA Northwest Potomac
15 Hermitage 10 2 11.22 0.78 -1.22 88.4 427 159 0.73 5 AAA Central Colonial
16 Hampton 11 2 12.21 0.79 -1.21 92.6 465 169 0.73 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula
17 J.R. Tucker 1 9 2.11 7.89 -1.11 32.9 154 251 0.38 5 AAA Central Colonial
18 Patrick Henry(R) 8 3 9.00 2.00 -1.00 69.1 316 181 0.64 5 AAA Northwest River Ridge
19 Prince George 3 7 3.45 6.55 -0.45 47.6 239 303 0.44 5 AAA Central Central
20 Massaponax 12 2 12.44 1.56 -0.44 94.8 580 269 0.68 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth
21 Matoaca 5 5 5.41 4.59 -0.41 65.6 303 285 0.52 5 AAA Central Central
22 Warwick 4 7 4.36 6.64 -0.36 62.3 202 236 0.46 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula
23 Potomac 4 6 4.27 5.73 -0.27 54.2 218 243 0.47 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal
24 North Stafford 7 5 7.27 4.73 -0.27 69.2 375 320 0.54 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth
25 Highland Springs * 14 1 14.25 0.75 -0.25 102.8 620 208 0.75 5 AAA Central Capital
26 Douglas Freeman 10 2 10.13 1.87 -0.13 83.6 346 185 0.65 5 AAA Central Colonial
27 Kempsville 0 10 0.09 9.91 -0.09 35.8 74 418 0.15 5 AAA Eastern Beach
28 Thomas Jefferson(A) 0 9 0.05 8.95 -0.05 15.5 62 431 0.13 5 AAA Northern National
29 Gloucester 4 6 4.04 5.96 -0.04 60.7 227 262 0.46 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula
30 Tuscarora 5 6 5.02 5.98 -0.02 70.3 254 271 0.48 5 AAA II Potomac
31 Atlee 5 6 4.97 6.03 0.03 66.0 242 260 0.48 5 AAA Central Capital
32 Glen Allen 3 7 2.93 7.07 0.07 49.4 220 305 0.42 5 AAA Central Colonial
33 Green Run 4 7 3.85 7.15 0.15 59.0 222 279 0.44 5 AAA Eastern Beach
34 Nansemond River 6 5 5.78 5.22 0.22 69.1 244 235 0.51 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern
35 Wakefield 2 8 1.67 8.33 0.33 35.8 191 346 0.36 5 AAA Northern National
36 Patrick Henry(A) 8 4 7.63 4.37 0.37 74.7 322 262 0.55 5 AAA Central Capital
37 Mountain View 4 7 3.51 7.49 0.49 54.0 259 343 0.43 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth
38 Menchville 1 9 0.48 9.52 0.52 45.4 113 343 0.25 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula
39 Bethel 6 5 5.47 5.53 0.53 72.4 261 262 0.50 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula
40 Hickory 1 8 0.42 8.58 0.58 43.4 92 281 0.25 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern
41 Maury 3 7 2.41 7.59 0.59 44.7 208 318 0.40 5 AAA Eastern Eastern
42 Thomas Edison 1 9 0.39 9.61 0.61 34.1 124 407 0.23 5 AAA Northern National
43 Stafford 3 7 2.37 7.63 0.63 49.3 192 296 0.39 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth
44 Halifax County 2 8 1.21 8.79 0.79 27.2 159 331 0.32 5 AAA Northwest Piedmont
45 Brooke Point 11 2 10.18 2.82 0.82 86.8 565 351 0.62 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth
46 Deep Run 6 5 5.05 5.95 0.95 62.2 255 271 0.48 5 AAA Central Colonial
47 George Marshall 5 6 4.02 6.98 0.98 55.6 282 346 0.45 5 AAA Northern National
48 J.E.B. Stuart 4 6 2.56 7.44 1.44 45.9 208 309 0.40 5 AAA Northern National
49 Meadowbrook 4 6 2.51 7.49 1.49 62.6 158 237 0.40 5 AAA Central Central
50 Kecoughtan 2 8 0.37 9.63 1.63 53.0 107 357 0.23 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula
51 R.E. Lee(S) 5 5 3.26 6.74 1.74 56.2 260 340 0.43 5 AAA Northern Patriot
52 Albemarle 9 3 7.02 4.98 1.98 79.7 311 274 0.53 5 AAA Northwest Jefferson