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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2016 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 C.D. Hylton 6 5 9.21 1.79 -3.21 63.4 350 191 0.65 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  9  4   86.1 3
2 James Robinson 4 7 6.65 4.35 -2.65 70.5 276 236 0.54 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  4   68.1 2
3 Woodside 10 3 12.17 0.83 -2.17 92.5 406 150 0.73 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  8  3   72.8 -2
4 Centreville 9 3 10.76 1.24 -1.76 89.2 350 157 0.69 6 AAA Northern Concorde  8  3   80.5 -1
5 Bayside 9 3 10.60 1.40 -1.60 86.1 372 176 0.68 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  5   72.5 -3
6 Colonial Forge 11 3 12.57 1.43 -1.57 86.6 488 218 0.69 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  12  1   104.0 1
7 South County 8 4 9.31 2.69 -1.31 89.5 459 290 0.61 6 AAA Northern Patriot  5  6   73.6 -3
8 Lake Braddock 11 2 12.29 0.71 -1.29 99.1 527 183 0.74 6 AAA Northern Patriot  8  4   81.0 -3
9 Western Branch 6 5 7.23 3.77 -1.23 74.1 210 165 0.56 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  4  6   63.5 -2
10 Grassfield 9 3 10.12 1.88 -1.12 84.4 308 165 0.65 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   60.2 -6
11 Langley 2 8 3.04 6.96 -1.04 53.9 226 307 0.42 6 AAA Northern Liberty  2  8   31.9 0
12 West Potomac 9 3 10.03 1.97 -1.03 90.6 415 227 0.65 6 AAA Northern Patriot  5  5   69.3 -4
13 Thomas Dale 9 3 9.93 2.07 -0.93 85.2 361 202 0.64 6 AAA Central Central  9  3   85.7 0
14 Patriot 7 4 7.91 3.09 -0.91 65.4 343 242 0.59 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  9  3   90.8 2
15 Frank Cox 9 2 9.85 1.15 -0.85 88.0 246 111 0.69 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  5   72.5 -3
16 Ocean Lakes 5 5 5.83 4.17 -0.83 66.3 205 181 0.53 6 AAA Eastern Beach  10  2   89.7 5
17 Hayfield 9 3 9.82 2.18 -0.82 83.9 482 276 0.64 6 AAA Northern Liberty  8  3   73.6 -1
18 Freedom 8 3 8.79 2.21 -0.79 78.0 350 210 0.63 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  11  1   93.4 3
19 Clover Hill 1 9 1.73 8.27 -0.73 40.8 215 384 0.36 6 AAA Central Dominion  2  9   41.6 1
20 James Madison 11 2 11.69 1.31 -0.69 94.3 414 184 0.69 6 AAA Northern Liberty  8  4   80.5 -3
21 Westfield * 13 2 13.61 1.39 -0.61 104.9 507 218 0.70 6 AAA Northern Concorde  15  0   108.6 2
22 South Lakes 12 2 12.61 1.39 -0.61 94.4 574 254 0.69 6 AAA Northern Liberty  11  2   80.5 -1
23 Oscar Smith 13 2 13.60 1.40 -0.60 100.9 474 204 0.70 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  12  3   105.0 -1
24 Battlefield 7 4 7.60 3.40 -0.60 64.5 287 213 0.57 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  7  4   76.7 0
25 West Springfield 2 8 2.49 7.51 -0.49 58.7 229 345 0.40 6 AAA Northern Patriot  5  5   56.2 3
26 Franklin County 4 6 4.35 5.65 -0.35 42.5 294 324 0.48 6 AAA Central Piedmont  4  7   49.8 0
27 James River(C) 6 5 6.17 4.83 -0.17 74.7 311 284 0.52 6 AAA Central Dominion  6  5   64.0 0
28 Osbourn 1 9 1.15 8.85 -0.15 28.9 199 423 0.32 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  1  9   47.0 0
29 Stonewall Jackson(M) 2 8 2.14 7.86 -0.14 39.8 207 335 0.38 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   63.3 1
30 Yorktown 4 6 4.13 5.87 -0.13 61.8 195 222 0.47 6 AAA Northern Liberty  8  3   61.1 4
31 Cosby(C) 5 6 5.11 5.89 -0.11 68.2 259 273 0.49 6 AAA Central Dominion  1  9   36.9 -4
32 First Colonial 1 9 1.08 8.92 -0.08 41.8 124 271 0.31 6 AAA Eastern Beach  2  8   48.9 1
33 Fairfax 0 10 0.08 9.92 -0.08 36.0 75 457 0.14 6 AAA Northern Liberty  4  6   50.3 4
34 Herndon 1 9 0.93 9.07 0.07 44.2 182 423 0.30 6 AAA Northern Concorde  4  6   39.3 3
35 Riverbend 8 4 7.91 4.09 0.09 82.4 290 227 0.56 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  8   73.1 -4
36 Tallwood 8 3 7.90 3.10 0.10 82.2 232 164 0.59 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  6   66.0 -3
37 Forest Park 4 6 3.80 6.20 0.20 55.1 236 283 0.45 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   59.1 -1
38 Washington-Lee 5 6 4.45 6.55 0.55 66.5 298 344 0.46 6 AAA Northern Liberty  2  8   29.9 -3
39 Osbourn Park 1 9 0.35 9.65 0.65 30.0 114 390 0.23 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   51.8 2
40 Gar-Field 1 9 0.28 9.72 0.72 35.0 99 370 0.21 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  0  10   34.7 -1
41 McLean 1 9 0.22 9.78 0.78 39.8 107 433 0.20 6 AAA Northern Liberty  0  9   15.7 -1
42 Kellam 3 7 2.14 7.86 0.86 54.1 171 277 0.38 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   67.2 2
43 Chantilly 4 6 3.14 6.86 0.86 65.2 220 294 0.43 6 AAA Northern Concorde  0  10   37.4 -4
44 Oakton 4 7 3.04 7.96 0.96 70.6 215 307 0.41 6 AAA Northern Concorde  2  8   50.2 -2
45 Annandale 3 7 1.99 8.01 1.01 58.6 185 310 0.37 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   44.3 0
46 Manchester 11 2 9.78 3.22 1.22 93.8 472 313 0.60 6 AAA Central Dominion  11  2   88.2 0
47 W.T. Woodson 5 6 3.65 7.35 1.35 69.9 254 329 0.44 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  6   44.3 -1
48 Landstown 8 3 6.63 4.37 1.37 82.6 231 198 0.54 6 AAA Eastern Beach  12  1   95.9 4
49 Woodbridge 3 7 1.57 8.43 1.43 48.8 146 272 0.35 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  12  2   93.0 9
50 Mount Vernon 5 6 3.32 7.68 1.68 70.9 297 405 0.42 6 AAA Northern Patriot  7  4   59.6 2
51 Granby 5 5 2.57 7.43 2.43 56.1 160 237 0.40 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  6  5   61.7 1
52 T.C. Williams 5 6 2.04 8.96 2.96 79.2 181 313 0.37 6 AAA Northern Patriot  7  4   70.2 2