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1999-16 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2016 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 C.D. Hylton 6 5 9.21 1.79 -3.21 63.4 350 191 0.65 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal
2 James Robinson 4 7 6.65 4.35 -2.65 70.5 276 236 0.54 6 AAA Northern Concorde
3 Woodside 10 3 12.17 0.83 -2.17 92.5 406 150 0.73 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula
4 Centreville 9 3 10.76 1.24 -1.76 89.2 350 157 0.69 6 AAA Northern Concorde
5 Bayside 9 3 10.60 1.40 -1.60 86.1 372 176 0.68 6 AAA Eastern Beach
6 Colonial Forge 11 3 12.57 1.43 -1.57 86.6 488 218 0.69 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth
7 South County 8 4 9.31 2.69 -1.31 89.5 459 290 0.61 6 AAA Northern Patriot
8 Lake Braddock 11 2 12.29 0.71 -1.29 99.1 527 183 0.74 6 AAA Northern Patriot
9 Western Branch 6 5 7.23 3.77 -1.23 74.1 210 165 0.56 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern
10 Grassfield 9 3 10.12 1.88 -1.12 84.4 308 165 0.65 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern
11 Langley 2 8 3.04 6.96 -1.04 53.9 226 307 0.42 6 AAA Northern Liberty
12 West Potomac 9 3 10.03 1.97 -1.03 90.6 415 227 0.65 6 AAA Northern Patriot
13 Thomas Dale 9 3 9.93 2.07 -0.93 85.2 361 202 0.64 6 AAA Central Central
14 Patriot 7 4 7.91 3.09 -0.91 65.4 343 242 0.59 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal
15 Frank Cox 9 2 9.85 1.15 -0.85 88.0 246 111 0.69 6 AAA Eastern Beach
16 Ocean Lakes 5 5 5.83 4.17 -0.83 66.3 205 181 0.53 6 AAA Eastern Beach
17 Hayfield 9 3 9.82 2.18 -0.82 83.9 482 276 0.64 6 AAA Northern Liberty
18 Freedom 8 3 8.79 2.21 -0.79 78.0 350 210 0.63 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal
19 Clover Hill 1 9 1.73 8.27 -0.73 40.8 215 384 0.36 6 AAA Central Dominion
20 James Madison 11 2 11.69 1.31 -0.69 94.3 414 184 0.69 6 AAA Northern Liberty
21 Westfield * 13 2 13.61 1.39 -0.61 104.9 507 218 0.70 6 AAA Northern Concorde
22 South Lakes 12 2 12.61 1.39 -0.61 94.4 574 254 0.69 6 AAA Northern Liberty
23 Oscar Smith 13 2 13.60 1.40 -0.60 100.9 474 204 0.70 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern
24 Battlefield 7 4 7.60 3.40 -0.60 64.5 287 213 0.57 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal
25 West Springfield 2 8 2.49 7.51 -0.49 58.7 229 345 0.40 6 AAA Northern Patriot
26 Franklin County 4 6 4.35 5.65 -0.35 42.5 294 324 0.48 6 AAA Central Piedmont
27 James River(C) 6 5 6.17 4.83 -0.17 74.7 311 284 0.52 6 AAA Central Dominion
28 Osbourn 1 9 1.15 8.85 -0.15 28.9 199 423 0.32 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal
29 Stonewall Jackson(M) 2 8 2.14 7.86 -0.14 39.8 207 335 0.38 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal
30 Yorktown 4 6 4.13 5.87 -0.13 61.8 195 222 0.47 6 AAA Northern Liberty
31 Cosby(C) 5 6 5.11 5.89 -0.11 68.2 259 273 0.49 6 AAA Central Dominion
32 First Colonial 1 9 1.08 8.92 -0.08 41.8 124 271 0.31 6 AAA Eastern Beach
33 Fairfax 0 10 0.08 9.92 -0.08 36.0 75 457 0.14 6 AAA Northern Liberty
34 Herndon 1 9 0.93 9.07 0.07 44.2 182 423 0.30 6 AAA Northern Concorde
35 Riverbend 8 4 7.91 4.09 0.09 82.4 290 227 0.56 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth
36 Tallwood 8 3 7.90 3.10 0.10 82.2 232 164 0.59 6 AAA Eastern Beach
37 Forest Park 4 6 3.80 6.20 0.20 55.1 236 283 0.45 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal
38 Washington-Lee 5 6 4.45 6.55 0.55 66.5 298 344 0.46 6 AAA Northern Liberty
39 Osbourn Park 1 9 0.35 9.65 0.65 30.0 114 390 0.23 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal
40 Gar-Field 1 9 0.28 9.72 0.72 35.0 99 370 0.21 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal
41 McLean 1 9 0.22 9.78 0.78 39.8 107 433 0.20 6 AAA Northern Liberty
42 Kellam 3 7 2.14 7.86 0.86 54.1 171 277 0.38 6 AAA Eastern Beach
43 Chantilly 4 6 3.14 6.86 0.86 65.2 220 294 0.43 6 AAA Northern Concorde
44 Oakton 4 7 3.04 7.96 0.96 70.6 215 307 0.41 6 AAA Northern Concorde
45 Annandale 3 7 1.99 8.01 1.01 58.6 185 310 0.37 6 AAA Northern Patriot
46 Manchester 11 2 9.78 3.22 1.22 93.8 472 313 0.60 6 AAA Central Dominion
47 W.T. Woodson 5 6 3.65 7.35 1.35 69.9 254 329 0.44 6 AAA Northern Patriot
48 Landstown 8 3 6.63 4.37 1.37 82.6 231 198 0.54 6 AAA Eastern Beach
49 Woodbridge 3 7 1.57 8.43 1.43 48.8 146 272 0.35 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal
50 Mount Vernon 5 6 3.32 7.68 1.68 70.9 297 405 0.42 6 AAA Northern Patriot
51 Granby 5 5 2.57 7.43 2.43 56.1 160 237 0.40 6 AAA Eastern Eastern
52 T.C. Williams 5 6 2.04 8.96 2.96 79.2 181 313 0.37 6 AAA Northern Patriot