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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2017 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Colonial Beach 7 4 9.97 1.03 -2.97 30.2 320 138 0.70 1 A 1A Northern Neck
2 Galax 10 4 12.81 1.19 -2.81 42.4 519 215 0.71 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
3 Grundy 7 4 9.75 1.25 -2.75 35.2 334 156 0.68 1 A 1D Black Diamond
4 Chilhowie 11 4 13.21 1.79 -2.21 41.9 549 262 0.68 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
5 Sussex Central 9 3 11.15 0.85 -2.15 44.3 404 156 0.72 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers
6 Lunenburg 5 7 7.12 4.88 -2.12 19.9 453 394 0.53 1 A 1B James River
7 Castlewood 5 6 6.82 4.18 -1.82 7.5 272 227 0.55 1 A 1D Cumberland
8 West Point 7 3 8.76 1.24 -1.76 16.5 357 173 0.67 1 A 1A Tidewater
9 Riverheads * 12 2 13.56 0.44 -1.56 65.0 479 134 0.78 1 A 1B Shenandoah
10 Narrows 11 2 12.52 0.48 -1.52 37.2 507 151 0.77 1 A 1C Pioneer
11 Essex 12 2 13.50 0.50 -1.50 48.4 547 161 0.77 1 A 1A Northern Neck
12 Covington 8 4 9.34 2.66 -1.34 26.2 403 253 0.61 1 A 1C Pioneer
13 Parry McCluer 5 7 6.32 5.68 -1.32 17.2 286 275 0.51 1 A 1C Pioneer
14 George Wythe(W) 6 5 7.20 3.80 -1.20 42.0 289 228 0.56 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
15 Rye Cove 1 9 1.91 8.09 -0.91 -24.3 191 326 0.37 1 A 1D Cumberland
16 Craig County 0 10 0.76 9.24 -0.76 -24.6 130 328 0.28 1 A 1C Pioneer
17 Rappahannock 2 7 2.74 6.26 -0.74 0.2 204 277 0.42 1 A 1A Northern Neck
18 Cumberland 0 11 0.38 10.62 -0.38 -10.4 149 511 0.23 1 A 1B James River
19 Eastside 6 4 6.28 3.72 -0.28 27.3 345 284 0.55 1 A 1D Cumberland
20 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 0 11 0.16 10.84 -0.16 15.0 124 592 0.17 1 A 1B Shenandoah
21 Middlesex 5 5 5.13 4.87 -0.13 9.1 270 265 0.50 1 A 1A Tidewater
22 King & Queen 0 4 0.10 3.90 -0.10 -37.7 52 205 0.20 1 A 1A Tidewater
23 Twin Valley 3 7 3.08 6.92 -0.08 -12.4 252 340 0.43 1 A 1D Black Diamond
24 Lancaster 1 8 1.07 7.93 -0.07 -10.6 157 330 0.32 1 A 1A Northern Neck
25 Mathews 0 7 0.05 6.95 -0.05 -22.4 54 331 0.14 1 A 1A Tidewater
26 Windsor 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 -10.5 42 515 0.08 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers
27 Northumberland 7 4 6.89 4.11 0.11 29.4 390 322 0.55 1 A 1A Northern Neck
28 Honaker 3 7 2.81 7.19 0.19 9.6 238 337 0.41 1 A 1D Black Diamond
29 Thomas Walker 6 5 5.78 5.22 0.22 -0.1 247 238 0.51 1 A 1D Cumberland
30 Patrick Henry(GS) 9 3 8.52 3.48 0.48 27.6 415 298 0.58 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
31 William Campbell 9 3 8.43 3.57 0.57 53.2 452 329 0.58 1 A 1B Dogwood
32 Northwood 3 7 2.39 7.61 0.61 0.7 273 419 0.39 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
33 Eastern Montgomery 3 7 2.35 7.65 0.65 -1.0 171 265 0.39 1 A 1C Pioneer
34 Northampton 4 5 3.18 5.82 0.82 3.4 212 265 0.44 1 A 1A Eastern Shore-A
35 Franklin 3 7 2.17 7.83 0.83 13.2 237 381 0.38 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers
36 Rural Retreat 2 9 1.03 9.97 0.97 7.7 187 433 0.30 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
37 Hurley 6 5 5.00 6.00 1.00 16.6 271 290 0.48 1 A 1D Black Diamond
38 Bath County 2 8 0.98 9.02 1.02 -7.7 148 337 0.31 1 A 1C Pioneer
39 Holston 2 8 0.91 9.09 1.09 -0.8 171 401 0.30 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
40 Surry 2 7 0.75 8.25 1.25 7.5 158 384 0.29 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers
41 Charles City 2 7 0.54 8.46 1.46 -7.3 126 349 0.27 1 A 1A Tidewater
42 J.I. Burton 7 6 5.48 7.52 1.52 27.7 299 336 0.47 1 A 1D Cumberland
43 Altavista 3 9 1.47 10.53 1.53 31.3 211 438 0.33 1 A 1B Dogwood
44 Twin Springs 2 8 0.27 9.73 1.73 -14.7 99 373 0.21 1 A 1D Cumberland
45 Washington & Lee 8 4 6.05 5.95 1.95 25.3 324 322 0.50 1 A 1A Northern Neck
46 Bland(RG) 3 8 0.99 10.01 2.01 8.8 203 478 0.30 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
47 Auburn 4 7 1.92 9.08 2.08 17.6 176 313 0.36 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire