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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2017 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Liberty(Beal) 9 3 11.06 0.94 -2.06 78.4 403 162 0.71 4 AA 4C Northwestern
2 Smithfield 9 3 10.92 1.08 -1.92 78.6 381 162 0.70 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
3 Courtland 6 5 7.79 3.21 -1.79 72.9 314 226 0.58 4 AA 4B Battlefield
4 Lafayette 12 2 13.76 0.24 -1.76 87.6 493 110 0.82 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
5 Deep Creek 9 3 10.72 1.28 -1.72 82.1 332 151 0.69 4 AA 4A Southeastern
6 Woodgrove 6 4 7.72 2.28 -1.72 68.0 380 242 0.61 4 AA 4C Dulles
7 Warhill 7 4 8.70 2.30 -1.70 68.0 324 198 0.62 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
8 E.C. Glass 8 4 9.46 2.54 -1.46 79.0 386 237 0.62 4 AA 4D Seminole
9 Kings Fork 11 2 12.43 0.57 -1.43 87.5 454 145 0.76 4 AA 4A Southeastern
10 Sherando 11 3 12.28 1.72 -1.28 85.8 576 278 0.67 4 AA 4C Northwestern
11 Dominion 7 4 8.22 2.78 -1.22 67.7 321 215 0.60 4 AA 4C Dulles
12 Heritage(NN) 6 4 7.13 2.87 -1.13 56.8 273 195 0.58 4 AA 4A Peninsula
13 Blacksburg 11 2 12.08 0.92 -1.08 91.6 548 211 0.72 4 AA 4D River Ridge
14 Loudoun Valley 3 7 4.03 5.97 -1.03 46.9 261 302 0.46 4 AA 4C Dulles
15 William Byrd 9 2 9.98 1.02 -0.98 78.1 367 158 0.70 4 AA 4D Blue Ridge
16 Eastern View 11 1 11.88 0.12 -0.88 85.5 647 119 0.84 4 AA 4B Battlefield
17 Millbrook 9 2 9.84 1.16 -0.84 80.8 471 213 0.69 4 AA 4C Northwestern
18 Pulaski County 6 4 6.63 3.37 -0.63 64.1 338 263 0.56 4 AA 4D River Ridge
19 GW-Danville 10 2 10.54 1.46 -0.54 78.0 634 305 0.68 4 AA 4D Piedmont
20 Heritage(Le) 7 3 7.43 2.57 -0.43 62.6 249 168 0.60 4 AA 4C Dulles
21 Dinwiddie 12 1 12.40 0.60 -0.40 93.0 579 189 0.75 4 AA 4B Central
22 Park View(St) 0 10 0.27 9.73 -0.27 23.6 160 602 0.21 4 AA 4C Dulles
23 Salem * 13 2 13.24 1.76 -0.24 96.0 631 299 0.68 4 AA 4D River Ridge
24 Jefferson Forest 5 6 5.23 5.77 -0.23 72.2 407 422 0.49 4 AA 4D Seminole
25 Kettle Run 9 3 9.17 2.83 -0.17 78.4 371 240 0.61 4 AA 4C Northwestern
26 Bassett 1 9 1.10 8.90 -0.10 24.3 177 384 0.32 4 AA 4D Piedmont
27 Great Bridge 0 10 0.00 10.00 -0.00 36.9 25 475 0.05 4 AA 4A Southeastern
28 Denbigh 0 10 0.00 10.00 -0.00 22.0 16 422 0.04 4 AA 4A Peninsula
29 Churchland 1 8 0.92 8.08 0.08 30.0 107 239 0.31 4 AA 4A Eastern
30 Charlottesville 7 4 6.91 4.09 0.09 74.2 454 374 0.55 4 AA 4D Jefferson
31 Powhatan 3 7 2.86 7.14 0.14 48.4 218 306 0.42 4 AA 4B Jefferson
32 Monacan 11 1 10.83 1.17 0.17 88.6 397 174 0.70 4 AA 4B Dominion
33 Huguenot 5 6 4.75 6.25 0.25 56.1 260 288 0.47 4 AA 4B Dominion
34 Lake Taylor 7 4 6.72 4.28 0.28 70.0 311 263 0.54 4 AA 4A Eastern
35 Louisa 14 1 13.64 1.36 0.36 94.0 635 270 0.70 4 AA 4B Jefferson
36 Loudoun County 7 4 6.64 4.36 0.36 63.1 312 267 0.54 4 AA 4C Dulles
37 Amherst County 6 5 5.54 5.46 0.46 79.6 388 386 0.50 4 AA 4D Seminole
38 Jamestown 1 9 0.52 9.48 0.48 37.2 121 354 0.25 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
39 James Wood 2 8 1.46 8.54 0.54 39.2 183 352 0.34 4 AA 4C Northwestern
40 Hanover 2 8 1.45 8.55 0.55 54.3 178 343 0.34 4 AA 4B Capital
41 Riverside 4 6 3.41 6.59 0.59 42.1 202 258 0.44 4 AA 4C Dulles
42 Fauquier 2 8 1.40 8.60 0.60 44.7 181 355 0.34 4 AA 4C Northwestern
43 Woodrow Wilson 1 8 0.38 8.62 0.62 29.0 75 238 0.24 4 AA 4A Eastern
44 Grafton 1 8 0.10 8.90 0.90 32.5 74 388 0.16 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
45 Patrick Henry(A) 5 5 3.96 6.04 1.04 70.7 247 289 0.46 4 AAA 4B Capital
46 Caroline 2 7 0.71 8.29 1.29 42.1 138 342 0.29 4 AA 4B Battlefield
47 Carroll County 2 8 0.52 9.48 1.48 23.8 118 345 0.25 4 AA 4D River Ridge
48 Handley 4 6 2.00 8.00 2.00 54.3 176 294 0.37 4 AA 4C Northwestern
49 Chancellor 3 7 0.92 9.08 2.08 60.0 160 374 0.30 4 AA 4B Battlefield
50 Midlothian 5 6 2.68 8.32 2.32 57.6 215 327 0.40 4 AA 4B Dominion
51 King George 3 7 0.63 9.37 2.37 60.0 118 321 0.27 4 AA 4B Battlefield