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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2017 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Hampton 8 4 11.36 0.64 -3.36 61.2 320 110 0.74 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
2 Varina 8 4 10.88 1.12 -2.88 86.0 402 173 0.70 5 AAA 5B Capital
3 North Stafford 8 4 10.63 1.37 -2.63 85.0 474 222 0.68 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
4 L.C. Bird 7 4 9.55 1.45 -2.55 72.5 354 176 0.67 5 AAA 5B Dominion
5 Indian River 8 4 9.95 2.05 -1.95 77.7 391 218 0.64 5 AAA 5A Southeastern
6 Gloucester 5 6 6.93 4.07 -1.93 47.9 234 192 0.55 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
7 Salem(VB) 8 5 9.83 3.17 -1.83 70.5 318 209 0.60 5 AAA 5A Beach
8 Douglas Freeman 4 6 5.77 4.23 -1.77 59.9 229 204 0.53 5 AAA 5B Colonial
9 John Champe 8 4 9.71 2.29 -1.71 81.0 437 256 0.63 5 AA 5C Potomac
10 Hermitage 11 2 12.18 0.82 -1.18 101.9 404 149 0.73 5 AAA 5B Colonial
11 Green Run 2 8 3.01 6.99 -1.01 48.1 232 317 0.42 5 AAA 5A Beach
12 Lee-Davis 6 5 6.95 4.05 -0.95 70.3 341 279 0.55 5 AAA 5B Capital
13 Halifax County 5 5 5.94 4.06 -0.94 44.2 297 258 0.54 5 AAA 5D Piedmont
14 Nansemond River 9 5 9.93 4.07 -0.93 79.8 363 261 0.58 5 AAA 5A Southeastern
15 Massaponax 4 6 4.86 5.14 -0.86 66.3 246 251 0.49 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
16 Harrisonburg 8 4 8.75 3.25 -0.75 65.5 420 291 0.59 5 AA 5D Valley
17 Brooke Point 10 3 10.71 2.29 -0.71 92.9 379 214 0.64 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
18 Glen Allen 2 8 2.71 7.29 -0.71 46.0 264 381 0.41 5 AAA 5B Colonial
19 William Fleming 0 10 0.56 9.44 -0.56 43.6 157 447 0.26 5 AA 5D Blue Ridge
20 Broad Run 10 2 10.55 1.45 -0.55 87.3 413 198 0.68 5 AAA 5C Potomac
21 Henrico 9 3 9.53 2.47 -0.53 90.8 401 243 0.62 5 AAA 5B Capital
22 R.E. Lee(S) 4 7 4.48 6.52 -0.48 35.2 288 331 0.47 5 AAA 5C District 5
23 Warwick 2 8 2.30 7.70 -0.30 33.1 156 244 0.39 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
24 Stafford 10 4 10.23 3.77 -0.23 92.9 388 268 0.59 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
25 Kempsville 0 10 0.19 9.81 -0.19 35.9 89 384 0.19 5 AAA 5A Beach
26 Freedom(R) 1 9 1.16 8.84 -0.16 40.2 164 348 0.32 5 AAA 5C Potomac
27 Highland Springs * 14 1 14.12 0.88 -0.12 107.6 500 179 0.74 5 AAA 5B Capital
28 Stone Bridge 12 1 12.06 0.94 -0.06 96.5 523 203 0.72 5 AAA 5C Potomac
29 Rock Ridge 1 9 0.96 9.04 0.04 40.2 175 402 0.30 5 AA 5C Potomac
30 Deep Run 5 5 4.67 5.33 0.33 64.2 257 270 0.49 5 AAA 5B Colonial
31 Norview 4 7 3.66 7.34 0.34 61.3 136 176 0.44 5 AAA 5A Eastern
32 Tuscarora 12 3 11.57 3.43 0.43 96.5 444 283 0.61 5 AAA 5C Potomac
33 Bethel 3 7 2.48 7.52 0.52 35.8 148 223 0.40 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
34 J.R. Tucker 5 5 4.43 5.57 0.57 59.9 292 318 0.48 5 AAA 5B Colonial
35 Princess Anne 5 6 4.30 6.70 0.70 62.4 252 297 0.46 5 AAA 5A Beach
36 Falls Church 6 5 5.27 5.73 0.73 47.8 288 297 0.49 5 AAA 5C District 5
37 Maury 4 7 3.21 7.79 0.79 48.9 244 339 0.42 5 AAA 5A Eastern
38 Thomas Jefferson(A) 1 7 0.16 7.84 0.84 -3.4 71 302 0.19 5 AAA 5C District 5
39 Briar Woods 2 8 1.12 8.88 0.88 57.1 142 306 0.32 5 AAA 5C Potomac
40 Atlee 3 7 2.04 7.96 0.96 57.5 203 336 0.38 5 AAA 5B Capital
41 Orange 5 6 3.78 7.22 1.22 60.5 329 418 0.44 5 AAA 5D Jefferson
42 Prince George 4 6 2.70 7.30 1.30 55.7 206 298 0.41 5 AAA 5B Central
43 Mountain View 5 6 3.61 7.39 1.39 78.2 178 232 0.43 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
44 Wakefield 3 8 1.50 9.50 1.50 33.9 188 372 0.34 5 AAA 5C District 5
45 Albemarle 5 6 3.32 7.68 1.68 64.4 252 344 0.42 5 AAA 5D Jefferson
46 Matoaca 4 6 2.31 7.69 1.69 61.3 187 292 0.39 5 AAA 5B Central
47 Thomas Edison 3 7 1.29 8.71 1.71 29.8 196 397 0.33 5 AAA 5C District 5
48 Hickory 2 8 0.27 9.73 1.73 45.9 86 324 0.21 5 AAA 5A Southeastern
49 Meadowbrook 4 7 2.21 8.79 1.79 67.9 159 265 0.38 5 AAA 5B Central
50 Mills Godwin 6 5 4.12 6.88 1.88 66.1 144 174 0.45 5 AAA 5B Colonial
51 Kecoughtan 4 6 2.12 7.88 1.88 40.4 153 249 0.38 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
52 Menchville 2 8 0.07 9.93 1.93 32.9 59 363 0.14 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
53 Potomac 3 7 1.03 8.97 1.97 64.4 169 376 0.31 5 AAA 5D Eastern
54 Patrick Henry(R) 6 5 3.29 7.71 2.71 70.9 277 380 0.42 5 AAA 5D River Ridge