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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2017 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Riverbend 4 8 7.54 4.46 -3.54 73.1 278 229 0.55 6 AAA 6B Commonwealth  1  9   55.1 -3
2 Oscar Smith 12 3 14.43 0.57 -2.43 105.0 528 159 0.77 6 AAA 6A Southeastern  11  2   89.9 -1
3 C.D. Hylton 9 4 11.42 1.58 -2.42 86.1 534 257 0.68 6 AAA 6C Eastern  7  4   73.6 -2
4 South County 5 6 7.37 3.63 -2.37 73.6 338 260 0.57 6 AAA 6C District 4  7  5   81.3 2
5 Battlefield 7 4 9.21 1.79 -2.21 76.7 284 155 0.65 6 AAA 6D Western  5  5   53.5 -2
6 Thomas Dale 9 3 11.12 0.88 -2.12 85.7 410 160 0.72 6 AAA 6B Central  9  3   81.1 0
7 Woodside 8 3 10.04 0.96 -2.04 72.8 350 147 0.70 6 AAA 6A Peninsula  8  3   68.9 0
8 T.C. Williams 7 4 8.98 2.02 -1.98 70.2 379 218 0.63 6 AAA 6C District 3  4  6   53.1 -3
9 South Lakes 11 2 12.72 0.28 -1.72 80.5 536 130 0.80 6 AAA 6D District 2  9  3   71.6 -2
10 Mount Vernon 7 4 8.56 2.44 -1.56 59.6 422 265 0.61 6 AAA 6C District 3  8  3   67.0 1
11 J.E.B. Stuart 4 5 5.41 3.59 -1.41 33.7 291 250 0.54 6 AAA 6C District 5  7  3   54.3 3
12 Woodbridge 12 2 13.30 0.70 -1.30 93.0 431 145 0.75 6 AAA 6C Eastern  7  3   70.8 -5
13 Ocean Lakes 10 2 11.27 0.73 -1.27 89.7 404 147 0.73 6 AAA 6A Beach  13  1   97.7 3
14 James Robinson 6 4 7.23 2.77 -1.23 68.1 321 225 0.59 6 AAA 6C District 4  6  5   76.0 0
15 Oakton 2 8 2.95 7.05 -0.95 50.2 233 322 0.42 6 AAA 6D District 1  0  10   37.8 -2
16 James Madison 8 4 8.84 3.16 -0.84 80.5 297 203 0.59 6 AAA 6D District 1  10  3   85.6 2
17 Manchester 11 2 11.78 1.22 -0.78 88.2 562 243 0.70 6 AAA 6B Dominion  15  0   103.8 4
18 Patriot 9 3 9.77 2.23 -0.77 90.8 415 240 0.63 6 AAA 6D Western  7  4   75.0 -2
19 West Potomac 5 5 5.48 4.52 -0.48 69.3 260 242 0.52 6 AAA 6C District 3  2  8   51.0 -3
20 West Springfield 5 5 5.46 4.54 -0.46 56.2 270 252 0.52 6 AAA 6C District 4  4  5   59.2 -1
21 Freedom 11 1 11.46 0.54 -0.46 93.4 644 208 0.76 6 AAA 6C Eastern  13  2   96.9 2
22 Centreville 8 3 8.42 2.58 -0.42 80.5 302 195 0.61 6 AAA 6D District 1  9  3   81.8 1
23 Bayside 6 5 6.39 4.61 -0.39 72.5 254 225 0.53 6 AAA 6A Beach  6  5   70.3 0
24 Colgan 3 7 3.38 6.62 -0.38 56.0 308 395 0.44 6 AAA 6C Eastern  4  6   51.0 1
25 Forest Park 3 7 3.35 6.65 -0.35 59.1 207 267 0.44 6 AAA 6C Eastern  1  8   39.5 -2
26 Colonial Forge 12 1 12.31 0.69 -0.31 104.0 465 160 0.74 6 AAA 6B Commonwealth  11  1   102.2 -1
27 Chantilly 0 10 0.30 9.70 -0.30 37.4 111 404 0.22 6 AAA 6D District 1  3  7   50.7 3
28 McLean 0 9 0.27 8.73 -0.27 15.7 91 329 0.22 6 AAA 6D District 2  0  10   16.6 0
29 Herndon 4 6 4.22 5.78 -0.22 39.3 178 200 0.47 6 AAA 6D District 2  4  6   41.3 0
30 W.T. Woodson 4 6 4.20 5.80 -0.20 44.3 197 222 0.47 6 AAA 6C District 4  11  2   90.1 7
31 Gar-Field 0 10 0.17 9.83 -0.17 34.7 93 419 0.18 6 AAA 6C Eastern  3  7   47.0 3
32 Lake Braddock 8 4 8.05 3.95 -0.05 81.0 336 258 0.57 6 AAA 6C District 4  7  4   80.1 -1
33 Annandale 3 7 3.04 6.96 -0.04 44.3 267 363 0.42 6 AAA 6C District 3  4  6   53.1 1
34 Clover Hill 2 9 1.77 9.23 0.23 41.6 184 339 0.35 6 AAA 6B Dominion  4  6   58.0 2
35 Tallwood 5 6 4.72 6.28 0.28 66.0 234 260 0.47 6 AAA 6A Beach  6  5   70.8 1
36 Cosby(C) 1 9 0.71 9.29 0.29 36.9 131 340 0.28 6 AAA 6B Dominion  4  7   59.1 3
37 Frank Cox 6 5 5.68 5.32 0.32 72.5 326 318 0.51 6 AAA 6A Beach  9  3   83.1 3
38 Western Branch 4 6 3.55 6.45 0.45 63.5 210 262 0.44 6 AAA 6A Southeastern  0  9   36.7 -4
39 First Colonial 2 8 1.50 8.50 0.50 48.9 153 291 0.34 6 AAA 6A Beach  3  7   53.8 1
40 Kellam 5 5 4.32 5.68 0.68 67.2 261 289 0.47 6 AAA 6A Beach  4  6   65.4 -1
41 Osbourn 1 9 0.23 9.77 0.77 47.0 91 364 0.20 6 AAA 6D Western  1  9   40.6 0
42 Landstown 12 1 11.22 1.78 0.78 95.9 358 181 0.66 6 AAA 6A Beach  7  5   73.3 -5
43 Langley 2 8 1.14 8.86 0.86 31.9 168 359 0.32 6 AAA 6D District 2  3  7   40.5 1
44 Washington-Lee 2 8 1.05 8.95 0.95 29.9 173 382 0.31 6 AAA 6D District 2  1  8   25.4 -1
45 Hayfield 8 3 7.01 3.99 0.99 73.6 410 333 0.55 6 AAA 6C District 3  10  2   81.3 2
46 Grassfield 3 7 1.86 8.14 1.14 60.2 158 273 0.37 6 AAA 6A Southeastern  4  6   63.3 1
47 George Marshall 9 2 7.80 3.20 1.20 65.8 391 281 0.58 6 AAA 6D District 5  8  3   61.2 -1
48 Granby 6 5 4.74 6.26 1.26 61.7 213 236 0.47 6 AAA 6A Eastern  0  10   36.6 -6
49 Westfield * 15 0 13.73 1.27 1.27 108.6 445 184 0.71 6 AAA 6D District 1  13  1   96.8 -2
50 Yorktown 8 3 6.67 4.33 1.33 61.1 339 289 0.54 6 AAA 6D District 2  6  5   60.7 -2
51 James River(C) 6 5 4.66 6.34 1.34 64.0 274 307 0.47 6 AAA 6B Dominion  3  8   54.0 -3
52 Fairfax 4 6 2.44 7.56 1.56 50.3 173 263 0.40 6 AAA 6C District 4  3  7   53.9 -1
53 Franklin County 4 7 2.21 8.79 1.79 49.8 259 432 0.37 6 AAA 6B Piedmont  6  5   65.1 2
54 Osbourn Park 3 7 0.68 9.32 2.32 51.8 140 370 0.27 6 AAA 6D Western  2  8   40.5 -1
55 Stonewall Jackson(M) 3 7 0.33 9.67 2.67 63.3 82 288 0.22 6 AAA 6D Western  5  6   65.7 2