|HUTCHINSON'S VIRGINIA HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL REFERENCE||
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1999-18 Team Seasons
VHSL Football - 2018 Pythagorean Expectations
A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.
Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses PFALL = Points for PAALL = Points against Projected W = Projected Wins Projected L = Projected Losses