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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Washington & Lee 2 4 4.20 1.80 -2.20 10.8 149 109 0.58 1 A 1A Northern Neck
2 Colonial Beach 4 4 5.85 2.15 -1.85 32.5 219 151 0.59 1 A 1A Northern Neck
3 West Point 6 2 7.75 0.25 -1.75 31.0 312 87 0.78 1 A 1A Tidewater
4 Eastside 3 6 4.50 4.50 -1.50 14.5 310 310 0.50 1 A 1D Cumberland
5 Essex 5 3 6.46 1.54 -1.46 47.6 226 133 0.63 1 A 1A Northern Neck
6 Auburn 5 4 6.43 2.57 -1.43 25.6 254 181 0.58 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
7 Holston 6 3 7.09 1.91 -1.09 24.4 268 165 0.62 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
8 Galax 7 2 8.01 0.99 -1.01 71.6 334 154 0.68 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
9 Honaker 5 4 5.98 3.02 -0.98 21.3 269 209 0.56 1 A 1D Black Diamond
10 Riverheads 8 1 8.72 0.28 -0.72 69.6 403 113 0.78 1 A 1B Shenandoah
11 Covington 5 3 5.70 2.30 -0.70 36.6 228 163 0.58 1 A 1C Pioneer
12 Thomas Walker 6 2 6.68 1.32 -0.68 10.2 237 130 0.65 1 A 1D Cumberland
13 Parry McCluer 5 4 5.61 3.39 -0.61 44.0 287 238 0.55 1 A 1C Pioneer
14 William Campbell 5 4 5.57 3.43 -0.57 43.5 267 223 0.54 1 A 1B Dogwood
15 Rappahannock 7 1 7.55 0.45 -0.55 30.0 282 99 0.74 1 A 1A Northern Neck
16 Narrows 8 1 8.42 0.58 -0.42 36.8 305 113 0.73 1 A 1C Pioneer
17 George Wythe(W) 5 3 5.40 2.60 -0.40 47.2 203 155 0.57 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
18 Northumberland 6 1 6.24 0.76 -0.24 48.0 233 107 0.69 1 A 1A Northern Neck
19 King & Queen 0 6 0.19 5.81 -0.19 -33.8 68 242 0.22 1 A 1A Tidewater
20 Cumberland 0 7 0.06 6.94 -0.06 4.6 64 363 0.15 1 A 1B James River
21 J.I. Burton 7 2 7.05 1.95 -0.05 41.8 325 202 0.62 1 A 1D Cumberland
22 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 17.3 40 522 0.07 1 A 1B Shenandoah
23 Lancaster 2 4 2.00 4.00 -0.00 -8.5 154 199 0.44 1 A 1A Northern Neck
24 Chilhowie 9 0 8.94 0.06 0.06 59.6 410 66 0.86 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
25 Twin Valley 4 5 3.86 5.14 0.14 -14.9 276 307 0.47 1 A 1D Black Diamond
26 Craig County 2 6 1.78 6.22 0.22 -14.2 170 270 0.39 1 A 1C Pioneer
27 Franklin 8 1 7.72 1.28 0.28 51.3 300 154 0.66 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers
28 Lunenburg 4 4 3.65 4.35 0.35 37.6 193 206 0.48 1 A 1B James River
29 Grundy 6 3 5.64 3.36 0.36 40.3 252 208 0.55 1 A 1D Black Diamond
30 Patrick Henry(GS) 8 1 7.61 1.39 0.39 45.0 370 197 0.65 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
31 Twin Springs 1 8 0.59 8.41 0.41 -14.9 133 356 0.27 1 A 1D Cumberland
32 Northwood 1 8 0.44 8.56 0.56 -14.9 137 411 0.25 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
33 Sussex Central 2 8 1.41 8.59 0.59 14.4 134 262 0.34 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers
34 Rye Cove 3 6 2.40 6.60 0.60 -10.5 169 246 0.41 1 A 1D Cumberland
35 Surry 2 7 1.35 7.65 0.65 16.2 179 340 0.34 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers
36 Northampton 7 1 6.28 1.72 0.72 20.1 265 164 0.62 1 A 1A Eastern Shore-A
37 Mathews 1 6 0.04 6.96 0.96 -10.2 45 298 0.13 1 A 1A Tidewater
38 Bland(RG) 2 6 1.04 6.96 0.96 -2.6 131 265 0.33 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
39 Rural Retreat 2 7 0.86 8.14 1.14 10.1 123 283 0.30 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
40 Windsor 2 7 0.74 8.26 1.26 -8.5 128 313 0.29 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers
41 Eastern Montgomery 2 7 0.68 8.32 1.32 0.9 92 233 0.28 1 A 1C Pioneer
42 Middlesex 2 6 0.32 7.68 1.68 -11.7 94 306 0.24 1 A 1A Tidewater
43 Bath County 5 4 3.03 5.97 1.97 17.4 192 247 0.44 1 A 1C Pioneer
44 Castlewood 3 6 0.95 8.05 2.05 -0.3 98 216 0.31 1 A 1D Cumberland
45 Hurley 3 6 0.80 8.20 2.20 -7.2 90 213 0.30 1 A 1D Black Diamond
46 Altavista 3 6 0.66 8.34 2.34 38.0 143 366 0.28 1 A 1B Dogwood