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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 West Point 7 3 9.52 0.48 -2.52 29.6 377 125 0.75 1 A 1A Tidewater
2 Washington & Lee 3 6 5.19 3.81 -2.19 41.8 231 206 0.53 1 A 1A Northern Neck
3 Colonial Beach 5 5 6.80 3.20 -1.80 30.9 279 211 0.57 1 A 1A Northern Neck
4 Galax 11 3 12.79 1.21 -1.79 60.2 527 220 0.71 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
5 Auburn 5 5 6.75 3.25 -1.75 28.5 261 199 0.57 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
6 Essex 8 4 9.45 2.55 -1.45 45.1 323 199 0.62 1 A 1A Northern Neck
7 Rappahannock 7 2 7.92 1.08 -0.92 43.9 289 138 0.68 1 A 1A Northern Neck
8 Eastside 4 7 4.89 6.11 -0.89 16.6 338 367 0.48 1 A 1D Cumberland
9 Chilhowie 14 1 14.82 0.18 -0.82 62.0 658 128 0.84 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
10 Riverheads * 13 1 13.74 0.26 -0.74 73.1 636 147 0.81 1 A 1B Shenandoah
11 Narrows 10 3 10.61 2.39 -0.61 42.1 413 238 0.63 1 A 1C Pioneer
12 J.I. Burton 9 3 9.40 2.60 -0.40 39.5 433 269 0.62 1 A 1D Cumberland
13 Northumberland 9 2 9.40 1.60 -0.40 43.5 339 176 0.66 1 A 1A Northern Neck
14 Holston 6 5 6.27 4.73 -0.27 25.3 274 247 0.53 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
15 Parry McCluer 7 5 7.16 4.84 -0.16 35.8 394 341 0.54 1 A 1C Pioneer
16 King & Queen 0 7 0.12 6.88 -0.12 -25.2 68 309 0.18 1 A 1A Tidewater
17 Covington 6 4 6.10 3.90 -0.10 36.4 261 221 0.54 1 A 1C Pioneer
18 Lunenburg 6 5 6.06 4.94 -0.06 34.0 273 253 0.52 1 A 1B James River
19 Cumberland 0 9 0.06 8.94 -0.06 1.0 70 444 0.14 1 A 1B James River
20 George Wythe(W) 7 4 7.04 3.96 -0.04 50.2 286 231 0.55 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
21 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 0 11 0.04 10.96 -0.04 15.9 69 569 0.11 1 A 1B Shenandoah
22 Lancaster 2 5 1.95 5.05 0.05 1.6 170 242 0.41 1 A 1A Northern Neck
23 Honaker 5 6 4.89 6.11 0.11 20.7 289 314 0.48 1 A 1D Black Diamond
24 Grundy 7 5 6.88 5.12 0.12 32.2 348 312 0.53 1 A 1D Black Diamond
25 Craig County 2 7 1.87 7.13 0.13 -10.3 190 312 0.38 1 A 1C Pioneer
26 Twin Valley 4 5 3.86 5.14 0.14 -16.6 276 307 0.47 1 A 1D Black Diamond
27 Patrick Henry(GS) 11 2 10.86 2.14 0.14 43.7 527 289 0.65 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
28 William Campbell 7 5 6.85 5.15 0.15 45.0 360 324 0.53 1 A 1B Dogwood
29 Sussex Central 2 9 1.76 9.24 0.24 4.2 156 288 0.35 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers
30 Thomas Walker 6 4 5.65 4.35 0.35 11.7 250 227 0.52 1 A 1D Cumberland
31 Twin Springs 1 9 0.63 9.37 0.37 -13.8 141 384 0.27 1 A 1D Cumberland
32 Franklin 9 2 8.57 2.43 0.43 34.6 332 208 0.61 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers
33 Northwood 1 9 0.38 9.62 0.62 -10.1 137 454 0.23 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
34 Rye Cove 4 6 3.35 6.65 0.65 -7.6 197 254 0.44 1 A 1D Cumberland
35 Rural Retreat 2 8 1.24 8.76 0.76 14.3 157 324 0.33 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
36 Northampton 8 2 7.11 2.89 0.89 27.7 328 235 0.58 1 A 1A Eastern Shore-A
37 Bland(RG) 2 7 1.03 7.97 0.97 5.6 138 294 0.32 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
38 Surry 3 7 1.77 8.23 1.23 13.5 205 362 0.36 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers
39 Windsor 2 8 0.76 9.24 1.24 -3.4 140 354 0.28 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers
40 Middlesex 2 7 0.42 8.58 1.58 -7.5 104 318 0.25 1 A 1A Tidewater
41 Bath County 5 6 3.25 7.75 1.75 18.7 235 324 0.42 1 A 1C Pioneer
42 Eastern Montgomery 3 8 1.21 9.79 1.79 9.0 142 308 0.32 1 A 1C Pioneer
43 Mathews 2 6 0.08 7.92 1.92 -2.3 57 308 0.16 1 A 1A Tidewater
44 Castlewood 3 7 0.95 9.05 2.05 0.6 106 244 0.30 1 A 1D Cumberland
45 Hurley 3 6 0.80 8.20 2.20 -6.5 90 213 0.30 1 A 1D Black Diamond
46 Altavista 4 8 0.85 11.15 3.15 35.2 197 512 0.28 1 A 1B Dogwood