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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 West Point 7 3 9.52 0.48 -2.52 29.6 377 125 0.75 1 A 1A Tidewater  4  2   39.4 -3
2 Washington & Lee 3 6 5.19 3.81 -2.19 41.8 231 206 0.53 1 A 1A Northern Neck  5  2   55.0 2
3 Colonial Beach 5 5 6.80 3.20 -1.80 30.9 279 211 0.57 1 A 1A Northern Neck  3  4   34.1 -2
4 Galax 11 3 12.79 1.21 -1.79 60.2 527 220 0.71 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire  6  1   68.1 -5
5 Auburn 5 5 6.75 3.25 -1.75 28.5 261 199 0.57 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire  4  4   31.2 -1
6 Essex 8 4 9.45 2.55 -1.45 45.1 323 199 0.62 1 A 1A Northern Neck  6  1   50.1 -2
7 Rappahannock 7 2 7.92 1.08 -0.92 43.9 289 138 0.68 1 A 1A Northern Neck  5  2   39.5 -2
8 Eastside 4 7 4.89 6.11 -0.89 16.6 338 367 0.48 1 A 1D Cumberland  3  4   23.6 -1
9 Chilhowie 14 1 14.82 0.18 -0.82 62.0 658 128 0.84 1 A 1D Hogoheegee  6  1   53.2 -8
10 Riverheads * 13 1 13.74 0.26 -0.74 73.1 636 147 0.81 1 A 1B Shenandoah  7  0   75.9 -6
11 Narrows 10 3 10.61 2.39 -0.61 42.1 413 238 0.63 1 A 1C Pioneer  7  0   60.6 -3
12 J.I. Burton 9 3 9.40 2.60 -0.40 39.5 433 269 0.62 1 A 1D Cumberland  5  2   43.8 -4
13 Northumberland 9 2 9.40 1.60 -0.40 43.5 339 176 0.66 1 A 1A Northern Neck  4  3   29.4 -5
14 Holston 6 5 6.27 4.73 -0.27 25.3 274 247 0.53 1 A 1D Hogoheegee  4  3   30.7 -2
15 Parry McCluer 7 5 7.16 4.84 -0.16 35.8 394 341 0.54 1 A 1C Pioneer  1  6   9.8 -6
16 King & Queen 0 7 0.12 6.88 -0.12 -25.2 68 309 0.18 1 A 1A Tidewater  6  0   43.3 6
17 Covington 6 4 6.10 3.90 -0.10 36.4 261 221 0.54 1 A 1C Pioneer  3  4   38.0 -3
18 Lunenburg 6 5 6.06 4.94 -0.06 34.0 273 253 0.52 1 A 1B James River  5  3   35.9 -1
19 Cumberland 0 9 0.06 8.94 -0.06 1.0 70 444 0.14 1 A 1B James River  0  7   8.4 0
20 George Wythe(W) 7 4 7.04 3.96 -0.04 50.2 286 231 0.55 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire  5  2   59.4 -2
21 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 0 11 0.04 10.96 -0.04 15.9 69 569 0.11 1 A 1B Shenandoah  2  5   18.0 2
22 Lancaster 2 5 1.95 5.05 0.05 1.6 170 242 0.41 1 A 1A Northern Neck  0  7   -4.9 -2
23 Honaker 5 6 4.89 6.11 0.11 20.7 289 314 0.48 1 A 1D Black Diamond  4  3   23.9 -1
24 Grundy 7 5 6.88 5.12 0.12 32.2 348 312 0.53 1 A 1D Black Diamond  4  3   8.1 -3
25 Craig County 2 7 1.87 7.13 0.13 -10.3 190 312 0.38 1 A 1C Pioneer  1  5   -27.4 -1
26 Twin Valley 4 5 3.86 5.14 0.14 -16.6 276 307 0.47 1 A 1D Black Diamond  1  5   -10.0 -3
27 Patrick Henry(GS) 11 2 10.86 2.14 0.14 43.7 527 289 0.65 1 A 1D Hogoheegee  7  0   59.8 -4
28 William Campbell 7 5 6.85 5.15 0.15 45.0 360 324 0.53 1 A 1B Dogwood  3  4   43.0 -4
29 Sussex Central 2 9 1.76 9.24 0.24 4.2 156 288 0.35 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers  6  1   44.4 4
30 Thomas Walker 6 4 5.65 4.35 0.35 11.7 250 227 0.52 1 A 1D Cumberland  6  0   36.2 0
31 Twin Springs 1 9 0.63 9.37 0.37 -13.8 141 384 0.27 1 A 1D Cumberland  4  4   5.4 3
32 Franklin 9 2 8.57 2.43 0.43 34.6 332 208 0.61 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers  2  5   21.7 -7
33 Northwood 1 9 0.38 9.62 0.62 -10.1 137 454 0.23 1 A 1D Hogoheegee  1  6   3.0 0
34 Rye Cove 4 6 3.35 6.65 0.65 -7.6 197 254 0.44 1 A 1D Cumberland  2  4   -4.9 -2
35 Rural Retreat 2 8 1.24 8.76 0.76 14.3 157 324 0.33 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire  3  4   32.8 1
36 Northampton 8 2 7.11 2.89 0.89 27.7 328 235 0.58 1 A 1A Eastern Shore-A  0  6   -13.7 -8
37 Bland(RG) 2 7 1.03 7.97 0.97 5.6 138 294 0.32 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
38 Surry 3 7 1.77 8.23 1.23 13.5 205 362 0.36 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers  2  5   7.9 -1
39 Windsor 2 8 0.76 9.24 1.24 -3.4 140 354 0.28 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers  2  5   3.5 0
40 Middlesex 2 7 0.42 8.58 1.58 -7.5 104 318 0.25 1 A 1A Tidewater  5  2   22.3 3
41 Bath County 5 6 3.25 7.75 1.75 18.7 235 324 0.42 1 A 1C Pioneer  1  6   -1.7 -4
42 Eastern Montgomery 3 8 1.21 9.79 1.79 9.0 142 308 0.32 1 A 1C Pioneer  1  6   3.8 -2
43 Mathews 2 6 0.08 7.92 1.92 -2.3 57 308 0.16 1 A 1A Tidewater  1  5   7.4 -1
44 Castlewood 3 7 0.95 9.05 2.05 0.6 106 244 0.30 1 A 1D Cumberland  5  2   30.9 2
45 Hurley 3 6 0.80 8.20 2.20 -6.5 90 213 0.30 1 A 1D Black Diamond  4  3   23.2 1
46 Altavista 4 8 0.85 11.15 3.15 35.2 197 512 0.28 1 A 1B Dogwood  3  4   35.9 -1