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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Southampton 3 5 5.18 2.82 -2.18 20.7 219 175 0.56 3 AA 3A Tri-Rivers  3  5   33.7 0
2 Brookville 8 4 9.86 2.14 -1.86 76.1 310 176 0.64 3 AA 3C Seminole  3  4   65.3 -5
3 Lord Botetourt 10 3 11.66 1.34 -1.66 86.5 560 251 0.69 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge  7  0   85.0 -3
4 Hopewell 9 2 10.52 0.48 -1.52 80.0 391 125 0.76 3 AA 3A Central  7  0   90.0 -2
5 Norcom 7 5 8.51 3.49 -1.51 74.0 238 171 0.58 3 AA 3A Eastern  4  2   73.9 -3
6 John Marshall 4 6 5.38 4.62 -1.38 45.1 202 191 0.51 3 AA 3B Colonial  4  3   51.8 0
7 Phoebus 11 2 12.27 0.73 -1.27 83.0 401 141 0.74 3 AA 3A Peninsula  6  1   76.8 -5
8 Warren County 1 9 2.18 7.82 -1.18 19.9 147 236 0.38 3 AA 3B Northwestern  2  5   46.3 1
9 Magna Vista 5 6 6.17 4.83 -1.17 49.0 231 211 0.52 3 AA 3D Piedmont  6  1   66.0 1
10 Spotsylvania 8 5 9.16 3.84 -1.16 56.7 385 279 0.58 3 AA 3B Battlefield  5  2   61.5 -3
11 Spotswood 8 2 9.01 0.99 -1.01 61.1 340 150 0.69 3 AA 3C Valley  7  0   75.6 -1
12 New Kent 4 5 4.71 4.29 -0.71 54.3 177 171 0.51 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers  3  4   51.7 -1
13 York 8 3 8.54 2.46 -0.54 65.0 271 171 0.61 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers  6  0   84.0 -2
14 Northside 11 2 11.53 1.47 -0.53 83.7 480 224 0.68 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge  5  2   84.5 -6
15 Broadway 4 6 4.44 5.56 -0.44 40.1 231 251 0.48 3 AA 3C Valley  0  7   10.2 -4
16 Staunton River 0 10 0.38 9.62 -0.38 28.1 146 482 0.23 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge  1  6   42.2 1
17 George Wythe(R) 0 11 0.33 10.67 -0.33 32.2 138 498 0.22 3 AA 3B Dominion  0  6   25.0 0
18 Waynesboro 0 10 0.28 9.72 -0.28 12.4 121 452 0.21 3 AA 3C Valley  0  7   14.2 0
19 Park View(SH) 5 4 5.24 3.76 -0.24 41.8 233 206 0.53 3 AA 3A Tri-Rivers  2  4   27.0 -3
20 Alleghany 0 9 0.10 8.90 -0.10 14.4 68 354 0.16 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge  1  6   14.8 1
21 Monticello 2 8 2.00 8.00 -0.00 28.4 191 319 0.37 3 AA 3C Jefferson  1  7   39.0 -1
22 Cave Spring 2 9 1.90 9.10 0.10 37.9 191 341 0.36 3 AA 3D River Ridge  1  6   37.3 -1
23 Manassas Park 1 0 0.90 0.10 0.10 35.1 27 12 0.69 3 AA 3B Northwestern  4  3   35.5 3
24 Liberty(Bed) 7 6 6.85 6.15 0.15 74.1 356 342 0.51 3 AA 3C Seminole  1  7   42.2 -6
25 Lakeland 2 8 1.79 8.21 0.21 45.9 154 271 0.36 3 AA 3A Southeastern  0  7   30.5 -2
26 Rockbridge County 6 5 5.78 5.22 0.22 46.8 346 333 0.51 3 AA 3C Valley  5  2   51.5 -1
27 Petersburg 7 4 6.70 4.30 0.30 67.9 342 290 0.54 3 AA 3A Central  3  4   55.2 -4
28 Fluvanna 6 5 5.70 5.30 0.30 52.8 222 216 0.51 3 AA 3C Jefferson  4  3   39.2 -2
29 Armstrong 1 9 0.69 9.31 0.31 40.3 133 348 0.28 3 AA 3B Capital  0  6   15.9 -1
30 Abingdon 9 3 8.63 3.37 0.37 69.1 347 245 0.59 3 AA 3D Mountain  4  3   59.0 -5
31 Tabb 6 4 5.52 4.48 0.48 60.5 215 199 0.52 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers  2  4   64.0 -4
32 Turner Ashby 2 7 1.41 7.59 0.59 29.7 186 347 0.35 3 AA 3C Valley  5  2   52.0 3
33 Western Albemarle 9 3 8.41 3.59 0.59 66.8 333 243 0.58 3 AA 3C Jefferson  4  4   39.6 -5
34 Rustburg 4 7 3.22 7.78 0.78 72.2 218 302 0.42 3 AA 3C Seminole  2  5   54.4 -2
35 James Monroe 3 8 2.20 8.80 0.80 41.6 216 361 0.37 3 AA 3B Battlefield  4  3   61.8 1
36 Booker T. Washington 6 5 5.18 5.82 0.82 74.0 249 260 0.49 3 AA 3A Eastern  3  4   52.5 -3
37 Skyline 2 8 1.17 8.83 0.83 19.8 123 260 0.32 3 AA 3B Northwestern  3  4   42.7 1
38 Thomas Jefferson(R) 6 6 5.12 6.88 0.88 45.1 200 223 0.47 3 AA 3B Colonial  6  1   59.0 0
39 Fort Defiance 5 5 4.10 5.90 0.90 38.1 145 166 0.47 3 AA 3C Valley  4  3   40.4 -1
40 Culpeper County 9 5 7.93 6.07 1.07 60.2 308 279 0.52 3 AA 3B Northwestern  1  7   44.1 -8
41 Christiansburg 2 9 0.77 10.23 1.23 39.7 128 333 0.28 3 AA 3D River Ridge  3  4   51.2 1
42 Patrick County 2 8 0.76 9.24 1.24 19.2 112 283 0.28 3 AA 3D Piedmont  3  5   32.3 1
43 Hidden Valley 3 8 1.56 9.44 1.44 51.3 177 345 0.34 3 AA 3D River Ridge  5  2   77.7 2
44 Colonial Heights 2 7 0.42 8.58 1.58 42.7 93 283 0.25 3 AA 3A Central  1  7   26.0 -1
45 William Monroe 3 7 1.35 8.65 1.65 26.3 120 239 0.33 3 AA 3B Northwestern  3  4   43.3 0
46 Tunstall 7 5 4.97 7.03 2.03 55.9 242 275 0.47 3 AA 3D Piedmont  0  7   23.6 -7
47 Heritage(Lyn) * 14 1 11.91 3.09 2.09 93.0 547 332 0.62 3 AA 3C Seminole  6  1   88.4 -8
48 Brentsville 6 6 2.04 9.96 3.96 46.4 139 250 0.36 3 AA 3B Northwestern  4  3   61.5 -2