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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Warren County 0 9 1.69 7.31 -1.69 16.8 133 229 0.37 3 AA 3B Northwestern
2 Brookville 6 3 7.64 1.36 -1.64 73.5 271 143 0.65 3 AA 3C Seminole
3 Southampton 3 4 4.62 2.38 -1.62 23.9 207 162 0.56 3 AA 3A Tri-Rivers
4 John Marshall 3 5 4.33 3.67 -1.33 42.0 184 173 0.52 3 AA 3B Colonial
5 Norcom 5 4 6.20 2.80 -1.20 69.8 204 152 0.57 3 AA 3A Eastern
6 Lord Botetourt 6 2 7.08 0.92 -1.08 84.0 305 143 0.68 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
7 Phoebus 7 1 7.84 0.16 -0.84 80.5 290 68 0.81 3 AA 3A Peninsula
8 York 6 2 6.66 1.34 -0.66 61.8 228 126 0.64 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers
9 New Kent 4 3 4.59 2.41 -0.59 56.1 155 122 0.56 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers
10 Hopewell 7 1 7.56 0.44 -0.56 84.5 264 92 0.74 3 AA 3A Central
11 Spotswood 7 1 7.50 0.50 -0.50 64.0 292 107 0.73 3 AA 3C Valley
12 Spotsylvania 6 3 6.50 2.50 -0.50 53.3 265 186 0.59 3 AA 3B Battlefield
13 George Wythe(R) 0 9 0.43 8.57 -0.43 29.4 124 376 0.25 3 AA 3B Dominion
14 Waynesboro 0 10 0.28 9.72 -0.28 13.3 121 452 0.21 3 AA 3C Valley
15 Staunton River 0 9 0.25 8.75 -0.25 23.7 119 446 0.21 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
16 Broadway 4 5 4.17 4.83 -0.17 43.0 215 227 0.49 3 AA 3C Valley
17 Alleghany 0 8 0.10 7.90 -0.10 18.3 61 308 0.17 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
18 Petersburg 6 3 6.04 2.96 -0.04 68.3 280 215 0.57 3 AA 3A Central
19 Abingdon 7 2 6.96 2.04 0.04 69.0 274 174 0.61 3 AA 3D Mountain
20 Rockbridge County 5 4 4.93 4.07 0.07 47.2 305 284 0.52 3 AA 3C Valley
21 Monticello 2 7 1.91 7.09 0.09 34.0 177 288 0.38 3 AA 3C Jefferson
22 Manassas Park 1 0 0.90 0.10 0.10 31.0 27 12 0.69 3 AA 3B Northwestern
23 Fluvanna 6 3 5.89 3.11 0.11 50.9 209 165 0.56 3 AA 3C Jefferson
24 Northside 8 1 7.88 1.12 0.12 87.1 338 164 0.67 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
25 Liberty(Bed) 5 4 4.86 4.14 0.14 73.5 246 232 0.51 3 AA 3C Seminole
26 Armstrong 1 7 0.83 7.17 0.17 40.7 127 282 0.31 3 AA 3B Capital
27 Cave Spring 2 7 1.80 7.20 0.20 41.1 162 271 0.37 3 AA 3D River Ridge
28 Rustburg 3 6 2.71 6.29 0.29 57.4 191 261 0.42 3 AA 3C Seminole
29 Booker T. Washington 6 3 5.68 3.32 0.32 71.9 249 204 0.55 3 AA 3A Eastern
30 Magna Vista 4 5 3.67 5.33 0.33 57.9 162 186 0.47 3 AA 3D Piedmont
31 Turner Ashby 2 6 1.61 6.39 0.39 33.5 186 310 0.38 3 AA 3C Valley
32 Park View(SH) 4 3 3.53 3.47 0.47 51.3 178 177 0.50 3 AA 3A Tri-Rivers
33 Thomas Jefferson(R) 5 4 4.40 4.60 0.60 47.6 184 187 0.50 3 AA 3B Colonial
34 Heritage(Lyn) 8 1 7.38 1.62 0.62 87.0 323 184 0.64 3 AA 3C Seminole
35 Western Albemarle 7 2 6.37 2.63 0.63 63.1 251 181 0.58 3 AA 3C Jefferson
36 Lakeland 2 7 1.34 7.66 0.66 48.4 128 244 0.34 3 AA 3A Southeastern
37 Hidden Valley 2 7 1.33 7.67 0.67 52.0 163 312 0.34 3 AA 3D River Ridge
38 Christiansburg 2 7 1.30 7.70 0.70 41.1 122 236 0.34 3 AA 3D River Ridge
39 Tunstall 6 3 5.24 3.76 0.76 57.9 216 191 0.53 3 AA 3D Piedmont
40 Skyline 2 7 1.05 7.95 0.95 23.7 116 246 0.32 3 AA 3B Northwestern
41 James Monroe 2 7 1.04 7.96 0.96 45.4 150 319 0.32 3 AA 3B Battlefield
42 Fort Defiance 5 4 3.93 5.07 1.07 42.5 142 156 0.48 3 AA 3C Valley
43 Patrick County 2 7 0.74 8.26 1.26 20.9 104 254 0.29 3 AA 3D Piedmont
44 Tabb 5 4 3.70 5.30 1.30 59.2 162 185 0.47 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers
45 Colonial Heights 2 6 0.53 7.47 1.47 51.5 93 248 0.27 3 AA 3A Central
46 Culpeper County 5 4 3.51 5.49 1.49 53.3 166 196 0.46 3 AA 3B Northwestern
47 William Monroe 3 6 1.21 7.79 1.79 24.2 103 205 0.33 3 AA 3B Northwestern
48 Brentsville 5 5 1.68 8.32 3.32 47.2 114 206 0.36 3 AA 3B Northwestern