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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Southampton 3 5 5.18 2.82 -2.18 20.7 219 175 0.56 3 AA 3A Tri-Rivers
2 Brookville 8 4 9.86 2.14 -1.86 76.1 310 176 0.64 3 AA 3C Seminole
3 Lord Botetourt 10 3 11.66 1.34 -1.66 86.5 560 251 0.69 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
4 Hopewell 9 2 10.52 0.48 -1.52 80.0 391 125 0.76 3 AA 3A Central
5 Norcom 7 5 8.51 3.49 -1.51 74.0 238 171 0.58 3 AA 3A Eastern
6 John Marshall 4 6 5.38 4.62 -1.38 45.1 202 191 0.51 3 AA 3B Colonial
7 Phoebus 11 2 12.27 0.73 -1.27 83.0 401 141 0.74 3 AA 3A Peninsula
8 Warren County 1 9 2.18 7.82 -1.18 19.9 147 236 0.38 3 AA 3B Northwestern
9 Magna Vista 5 6 6.17 4.83 -1.17 49.0 231 211 0.52 3 AA 3D Piedmont
10 Spotsylvania 8 5 9.16 3.84 -1.16 56.7 385 279 0.58 3 AA 3B Battlefield
11 Spotswood 8 2 9.01 0.99 -1.01 61.1 340 150 0.69 3 AA 3C Valley
12 New Kent 4 5 4.71 4.29 -0.71 54.3 177 171 0.51 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers
13 York 8 3 8.54 2.46 -0.54 65.0 271 171 0.61 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers
14 Northside 11 2 11.53 1.47 -0.53 83.7 480 224 0.68 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
15 Broadway 4 6 4.44 5.56 -0.44 40.1 231 251 0.48 3 AA 3C Valley
16 Staunton River 0 10 0.38 9.62 -0.38 28.1 146 482 0.23 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
17 George Wythe(R) 0 11 0.33 10.67 -0.33 32.2 138 498 0.22 3 AA 3B Dominion
18 Waynesboro 0 10 0.28 9.72 -0.28 12.4 121 452 0.21 3 AA 3C Valley
19 Park View(SH) 5 4 5.24 3.76 -0.24 41.8 233 206 0.53 3 AA 3A Tri-Rivers
20 Alleghany 0 9 0.10 8.90 -0.10 14.4 68 354 0.16 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
21 Monticello 2 8 2.00 8.00 -0.00 28.4 191 319 0.37 3 AA 3C Jefferson
22 Cave Spring 2 9 1.90 9.10 0.10 37.9 191 341 0.36 3 AA 3D River Ridge
23 Manassas Park 1 0 0.90 0.10 0.10 35.1 27 12 0.69 3 AA 3B Northwestern
24 Liberty(Bed) 7 6 6.85 6.15 0.15 74.1 356 342 0.51 3 AA 3C Seminole
25 Lakeland 2 8 1.79 8.21 0.21 45.9 154 271 0.36 3 AA 3A Southeastern
26 Rockbridge County 6 5 5.78 5.22 0.22 46.8 346 333 0.51 3 AA 3C Valley
27 Petersburg 7 4 6.70 4.30 0.30 67.9 342 290 0.54 3 AA 3A Central
28 Fluvanna 6 5 5.70 5.30 0.30 52.8 222 216 0.51 3 AA 3C Jefferson
29 Armstrong 1 9 0.69 9.31 0.31 40.3 133 348 0.28 3 AA 3B Capital
30 Abingdon 9 3 8.63 3.37 0.37 69.1 347 245 0.59 3 AA 3D Mountain
31 Tabb 6 4 5.52 4.48 0.48 60.5 215 199 0.52 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers
32 Turner Ashby 2 7 1.41 7.59 0.59 29.7 186 347 0.35 3 AA 3C Valley
33 Western Albemarle 9 3 8.41 3.59 0.59 66.8 333 243 0.58 3 AA 3C Jefferson
34 Rustburg 4 7 3.22 7.78 0.78 72.2 218 302 0.42 3 AA 3C Seminole
35 James Monroe 3 8 2.20 8.80 0.80 41.6 216 361 0.37 3 AA 3B Battlefield
36 Booker T. Washington 6 5 5.18 5.82 0.82 74.0 249 260 0.49 3 AA 3A Eastern
37 Skyline 2 8 1.17 8.83 0.83 19.8 123 260 0.32 3 AA 3B Northwestern
38 Thomas Jefferson(R) 6 6 5.12 6.88 0.88 45.1 200 223 0.47 3 AA 3B Colonial
39 Fort Defiance 5 5 4.10 5.90 0.90 38.1 145 166 0.47 3 AA 3C Valley
40 Culpeper County 9 5 7.93 6.07 1.07 60.2 308 279 0.52 3 AA 3B Northwestern
41 Christiansburg 2 9 0.77 10.23 1.23 39.7 128 333 0.28 3 AA 3D River Ridge
42 Patrick County 2 8 0.76 9.24 1.24 19.2 112 283 0.28 3 AA 3D Piedmont
43 Hidden Valley 3 8 1.56 9.44 1.44 51.3 177 345 0.34 3 AA 3D River Ridge
44 Colonial Heights 2 7 0.42 8.58 1.58 42.7 93 283 0.25 3 AA 3A Central
45 William Monroe 3 7 1.35 8.65 1.65 26.3 120 239 0.33 3 AA 3B Northwestern
46 Tunstall 7 5 4.97 7.03 2.03 55.9 242 275 0.47 3 AA 3D Piedmont
47 Heritage(Lyn) * 14 1 11.91 3.09 2.09 93.0 547 332 0.62 3 AA 3C Seminole
48 Brentsville 6 6 2.04 9.96 3.96 46.4 139 250 0.36 3 AA 3B Northwestern