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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Varina 8 3 10.46 0.54 -2.46 77.1 471 157 0.75 5 AAA 5B Capital  7  1   91.6 -1
2 Nansemond River 6 4 8.45 1.55 -2.45 80.2 249 133 0.65 5 AAA 5A Southeastern  5  2   79.9 -1
3 Stone Bridge 11 3 13.33 0.67 -2.33 96.0 613 203 0.75 5 AAA 5C Potomac  7  0   98.0 -4
4 John Champe 6 5 8.20 2.80 -2.20 76.5 250 168 0.60 5 AA 5C Potomac  5  3   75.0 -1
5 North Stafford 10 3 11.77 1.23 -1.77 92.0 520 225 0.70 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth  4  3   77.4 -6
6 Tuscarora 8 4 9.73 2.27 -1.73 76.0 341 199 0.63 5 AAA 5C Potomac  6  1   90.4 -2
7 Salem(VB) 9 3 10.73 1.27 -1.73 83.3 284 129 0.69 5 AAA 5A Beach  7  0   97.4 -2
8 Hampton 4 5 5.69 3.31 -1.69 47.2 132 108 0.55 5 AAA 5A Peninsula  5  3   62.2 1
9 Harrisonburg 6 4 7.50 2.50 -1.50 49.3 359 239 0.60 5 AA 5D Valley  4  3   46.7 -2
10 Halifax County 5 5 6.48 3.52 -1.48 53.6 257 205 0.56 5 AAA 5D Piedmont  5  2   58.0 0
11 J.R. Tucker 0 9 1.03 7.97 -1.03 17.7 134 286 0.32 5 AAA 5B Colonial  1  6   34.7 1
12 Massaponax 11 2 11.88 1.12 -0.88 96.3 446 186 0.71 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth  7  1   92.3 -4
13 Henrico 10 2 10.81 1.19 -0.81 88.9 451 199 0.69 5 AAA 5B Capital  4  4   75.8 -6
14 Indian River 12 1 12.78 0.22 -0.78 89.9 538 119 0.82 5 AAA 5A Southeastern  5  2   92.5 -7
15 Menchville 0 8 0.76 7.24 -0.76 20.9 87 201 0.30 5 AAA 5A Peninsula  3  4   43.8 3
16 Matoaca 3 7 3.71 6.29 -0.71 55.5 236 287 0.45 5 AAA 5B Central  5  2   75.2 2
17 Maury 12 2 12.65 1.35 -0.65 89.9 552 241 0.70 5 AAA 5A Eastern  7  0   97.3 -5
18 Mountain View 7 5 7.58 4.42 -0.58 78.3 303 248 0.55 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth  6  2   87.3 -1
19 Broad Run 12 1 12.57 0.43 -0.57 94.7 431 123 0.78 5 AAA 5C Potomac  7  0   94.0 -5
20 R.E. Lee(S) 2 8 2.57 7.43 -0.57 36.9 243 360 0.40 5 AAA 5C District 5  0  6   24.4 -2
21 Lee-Davis 1 9 1.40 8.60 -0.40 36.3 234 458 0.34 5 AAA 5B Capital  2  5   40.2 1
22 Warwick 6 5 6.28 4.72 -0.28 47.8 249 224 0.53 5 AAA 5A Peninsula  4  4   53.3 -2
23 Green Run 0 9 0.16 8.84 -0.16 38.5 55 242 0.19 5 AAA 5A Beach  4  3   61.3 4
24 Kempsville 0 8 0.09 7.91 -0.09 39.5 63 326 0.16 5 AAA 5A Beach  0  7   37.8 0
25 Meadowbrook 0 10 0.07 9.93 -0.07 39.3 64 400 0.14 5 AAA 5B Central  0  7   30.3 0
26 Douglas Freeman 7 4 7.04 3.96 -0.04 65.0 297 240 0.55 5 AAA 5B Colonial  5  2   70.2 -2
27 Freedom(R) 0 9 0.02 8.98 -0.02 31.0 38 387 0.09 5 AAA 5C Potomac  2  5   41.9 2
28 Highland Springs * 15 0 14.92 0.08 0.08 100.8 743 105 0.88 5 AAA 5B Capital  7  0   109.1 -8
29 Deep Run 6 5 5.75 5.25 0.25 62.5 267 258 0.51 5 AAA 5B Colonial  7  0   85.0 1
30 Prince George 4 6 3.71 6.29 0.29 51.3 222 270 0.45 5 AAA 5B Central  5  2   72.5 1
31 Orange 2 8 1.66 8.34 0.34 37.5 170 309 0.35 5 AAA 5D Jefferson  3  5   44.0 1
32 Norview 3 8 2.56 8.44 0.44 47.2 240 373 0.39 5 AAA 5A Eastern  1  7   44.5 -2
33 Potomac 2 7 1.56 7.44 0.44 54.6 166 296 0.36 5 AAA 5D Eastern  1  6   40.0 -1
34 Rock Ridge 2 8 1.54 8.46 0.46 45.8 190 357 0.35 5 AA 5C Potomac  2  6   45.8 0
35 Thomas Jefferson(A) 1 6 0.52 6.48 0.48 1.3 85 216 0.28 5 AAA 5C District 5  1  1   54.7 0
36 William Fleming 1 8 0.47 8.53 0.53 42.3 125 366 0.25 5 AA 5D Blue Ridge  2  5   52.0 1
37 Briar Woods 3 8 2.40 8.60 0.60 45.8 205 329 0.38 5 AAA 5C Potomac  5  2   74.9 2
38 Gloucester 2 7 1.30 7.70 0.70 37.7 166 321 0.34 5 AAA 5A Peninsula  5  3   66.4 3
39 Mills Godwin 5 5 4.29 5.71 0.71 56.4 126 140 0.47 5 AAA 5B Colonial  3  5   49.9 -2
40 Glen Allen 8 3 7.22 3.78 0.78 72.9 324 255 0.56 5 AAA 5B Colonial  4  3   58.4 -4
41 Princess Anne 2 8 1.18 8.82 0.82 48.2 123 259 0.32 5 AAA 5A Beach  5  2   84.7 3
42 Hermitage 1 9 0.06 9.94 0.94 44.5 62 419 0.13 5 AAA 5B Colonial  2  5   56.1 1
43 L.C. Bird 9 3 8.02 3.98 0.98 82.2 262 202 0.56 5 AAA 5B Dominion  4  3   66.5 -5
44 Falls Church 7 5 5.96 6.04 1.04 66.7 372 374 0.50 5 AAA 5C District 5  6  1   64.0 -1
45 Brooke Point 7 5 5.84 6.16 1.16 79.0 246 251 0.49 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth  1  6   63.0 -6
46 Wakefield 2 8 0.78 9.22 1.22 25.8 152 379 0.29 5 AAA 5C District 5  3  4   46.0 1
47 Bethel 3 6 1.53 7.47 1.47 43.9 114 205 0.36 5 AAA 5A Peninsula  3  4   53.6 0
48 Stafford 4 6 2.51 7.49 1.49 65.5 186 279 0.40 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth  2  5   53.7 -2
49 Thomas Edison 3 8 1.29 9.71 1.71 35.2 178 376 0.32 5 AAA 5C District 5  1  6   42.6 -2
50 Albemarle 4 7 1.72 9.28 2.28 54.5 185 345 0.35 5 AAA 5D Jefferson  2  5   43.7 -2
51 Atlee 7 4 4.65 6.35 2.35 72.8 236 265 0.47 5 AAA 5B Capital  2  4   55.0 -5
52 Hickory 3 7 0.55 9.45 2.45 55.8 102 293 0.26 5 AAA 5A Southeastern  3  4   58.8 0
53 Patrick Henry(R) 5 5 2.49 7.51 2.51 60.4 234 352 0.40 5 AAA 5D River Ridge  5  3   70.2 0
54 Kecoughtan 7 4 4.16 6.84 2.84 56.5 193 232 0.45 5 AAA 5A Peninsula  1  7   31.1 -6