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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Halifax County 5 3 6.62 1.38 -1.62 57.9 232 130 0.64 5 AAA 5D Piedmont
2 Hampton 3 5 4.43 3.57 -1.43 45.3 103 95 0.52 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
3 Tuscarora 6 3 7.37 1.63 -1.37 73.8 264 151 0.64 5 AAA 5C Potomac
4 John Champe 5 4 6.14 2.86 -1.14 76.1 195 147 0.57 5 AA 5C Potomac
5 Salem(VB) 7 2 8.05 0.95 -1.05 82.0 194 88 0.69 5 AAA 5A Beach
6 Nansemond River 4 3 5.03 1.97 -1.03 78.0 160 113 0.59 5 AAA 5A Southeastern
7 J.R. Tucker 0 8 1.02 6.98 -1.02 15.6 127 259 0.33 5 AAA 5B Colonial
8 Matoaca 3 6 3.91 5.09 -0.91 57.2 215 237 0.48 5 AAA 5B Central
9 Harrisonburg 5 3 5.90 2.10 -0.90 51.3 299 204 0.59 5 AA 5D Valley
10 Varina 8 1 8.86 0.14 -0.86 83.2 446 96 0.82 5 AAA 5B Capital
11 Stone Bridge 7 1 7.78 0.22 -0.78 90.4 358 96 0.79 5 AAA 5C Potomac
12 R.E. Lee(S) 1 7 1.77 6.23 -0.77 30.5 182 290 0.39 5 AAA 5C District 5
13 Menchville 0 8 0.76 7.24 -0.76 21.8 87 201 0.30 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
14 Deep Run 5 4 5.72 3.28 -0.72 61.3 248 202 0.55 5 AAA 5B Colonial
15 Massaponax 8 1 8.71 0.29 -0.71 98.3 303 86 0.78 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
16 Maury 8 1 8.64 0.36 -0.64 88.5 349 107 0.77 5 AAA 5A Eastern
17 North Stafford 7 1 7.55 0.45 -0.55 93.6 338 119 0.74 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
18 Mountain View 6 3 6.45 2.55 -0.45 83.0 237 168 0.59 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
19 Douglas Freeman 7 3 7.43 2.57 -0.43 73.4 283 191 0.60 5 AAA 5B Colonial
20 Henrico 7 1 7.40 0.60 -0.40 87.0 352 139 0.72 5 AAA 5B Capital
21 Warwick 5 4 5.29 3.71 -0.29 52.2 194 170 0.53 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
22 Green Run 0 8 0.20 7.80 -0.20 35.5 55 214 0.20 5 AAA 5A Beach
23 Lee-Davis 1 8 1.15 7.85 -0.15 40.0 205 417 0.33 5 AAA 5B Capital
24 Meadowbrook 0 9 0.07 8.93 -0.07 37.0 57 339 0.14 5 AAA 5B Central
25 Falls Church 5 4 5.07 3.93 -0.07 64.2 289 263 0.52 5 AAA 5C District 5
26 Kempsville 0 7 0.06 6.94 -0.06 42.3 51 298 0.15 5 AAA 5A Beach
27 Freedom(R) 0 8 0.02 7.98 -0.02 26.4 38 345 0.10 5 AAA 5C Potomac
28 Highland Springs 9 0 9.00 0.00 0.00 101.0 469 27 0.95 5 AAA 5B Capital
29 Broad Run 9 0 8.98 0.02 0.02 94.0 314 30 0.91 5 AAA 5C Potomac
30 Indian River 9 0 8.93 0.07 0.07 99.8 408 66 0.86 5 AAA 5A Southeastern
31 Norview 3 6 2.88 6.12 0.12 61.1 227 300 0.43 5 AAA 5A Eastern
32 Orange 2 7 1.88 7.12 0.12 33.5 163 267 0.38 5 AAA 5D Jefferson
33 Glen Allen 6 2 5.72 2.28 0.28 63.9 257 183 0.58 5 AAA 5B Colonial
34 Rock Ridge 1 8 0.65 8.35 0.35 40.0 130 335 0.28 5 AA 5C Potomac
35 Briar Woods 3 7 2.61 7.39 0.39 54.4 183 269 0.40 5 AAA 5C Potomac
36 Potomac 2 7 1.56 7.44 0.44 55.9 166 296 0.36 5 AAA 5D Eastern
37 Thomas Jefferson(A) 1 6 0.52 6.48 0.48 2.3 85 216 0.28 5 AAA 5C District 5
38 Prince George 4 5 3.42 5.58 0.58 53.1 202 242 0.45 5 AAA 5B Central
39 William Fleming 1 7 0.39 7.61 0.61 37.2 99 298 0.25 5 AA 5D Blue Ridge
40 Princess Anne 2 7 1.17 7.83 0.83 49.1 97 196 0.33 5 AAA 5A Beach
41 Hermitage 1 9 0.06 9.94 0.94 40.8 62 419 0.13 5 AAA 5B Colonial
42 Gloucester 2 5 1.05 5.95 0.95 41.2 136 259 0.34 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
43 Mills Godwin 5 4 4.03 4.97 0.97 57.1 112 121 0.48 5 AAA 5B Colonial
44 Wakefield 2 7 0.80 8.20 1.20 24.9 142 337 0.30 5 AAA 5C District 5
45 L.C. Bird 7 2 5.66 3.34 1.34 78.3 186 153 0.55 5 AAA 5B Dominion
46 Brooke Point 5 4 3.56 5.44 1.44 86.5 153 179 0.46 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
47 Bethel 3 6 1.53 7.47 1.47 43.9 114 205 0.36 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
48 Stafford 4 6 2.51 7.49 1.49 68.8 186 279 0.40 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
49 Thomas Edison 3 6 1.31 7.69 1.69 36.0 140 270 0.34 5 AAA 5C District 5
50 Kecoughtan 6 3 4.21 4.79 1.79 55.4 165 173 0.49 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
51 Albemarle 4 5 2.14 6.86 1.86 56.0 161 248 0.39 5 AAA 5D Jefferson
52 Patrick Henry(R) 4 4 1.92 6.08 2.08 61.8 178 273 0.39 5 AAA 5D River Ridge
53 Atlee 6 3 3.67 5.33 2.33 75.4 195 224 0.47 5 AAA 5B Capital
54 Hickory 3 6 0.64 8.36 2.36 59.0 102 265 0.28 5 AAA 5A Southeastern