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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Varina 8 3 10.46 0.54 -2.46 77.1 471 157 0.75 5 AAA 5B Capital
2 Nansemond River 6 4 8.45 1.55 -2.45 80.2 249 133 0.65 5 AAA 5A Southeastern
3 Stone Bridge 11 3 13.33 0.67 -2.33 96.0 613 203 0.75 5 AAA 5C Potomac
4 John Champe 6 5 8.20 2.80 -2.20 76.5 250 168 0.60 5 AA 5C Potomac
5 North Stafford 10 3 11.77 1.23 -1.77 92.0 520 225 0.70 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
6 Tuscarora 8 4 9.73 2.27 -1.73 76.0 341 199 0.63 5 AAA 5C Potomac
7 Salem(VB) 9 3 10.73 1.27 -1.73 83.3 284 129 0.69 5 AAA 5A Beach
8 Hampton 4 5 5.69 3.31 -1.69 47.2 132 108 0.55 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
9 Harrisonburg 6 4 7.50 2.50 -1.50 49.3 359 239 0.60 5 AA 5D Valley
10 Halifax County 5 5 6.48 3.52 -1.48 53.6 257 205 0.56 5 AAA 5D Piedmont
11 J.R. Tucker 0 9 1.03 7.97 -1.03 17.7 134 286 0.32 5 AAA 5B Colonial
12 Massaponax 11 2 11.88 1.12 -0.88 96.3 446 186 0.71 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
13 Henrico 10 2 10.81 1.19 -0.81 88.9 451 199 0.69 5 AAA 5B Capital
14 Indian River 12 1 12.78 0.22 -0.78 89.9 538 119 0.82 5 AAA 5A Southeastern
15 Menchville 0 8 0.76 7.24 -0.76 20.9 87 201 0.30 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
16 Matoaca 3 7 3.71 6.29 -0.71 55.5 236 287 0.45 5 AAA 5B Central
17 Maury 12 2 12.65 1.35 -0.65 89.9 552 241 0.70 5 AAA 5A Eastern
18 Mountain View 7 5 7.58 4.42 -0.58 78.3 303 248 0.55 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
19 Broad Run 12 1 12.57 0.43 -0.57 94.7 431 123 0.78 5 AAA 5C Potomac
20 R.E. Lee(S) 2 8 2.57 7.43 -0.57 36.9 243 360 0.40 5 AAA 5C District 5
21 Lee-Davis 1 9 1.40 8.60 -0.40 36.3 234 458 0.34 5 AAA 5B Capital
22 Warwick 6 5 6.28 4.72 -0.28 47.8 249 224 0.53 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
23 Green Run 0 9 0.16 8.84 -0.16 38.5 55 242 0.19 5 AAA 5A Beach
24 Kempsville 0 8 0.09 7.91 -0.09 39.5 63 326 0.16 5 AAA 5A Beach
25 Meadowbrook 0 10 0.07 9.93 -0.07 39.3 64 400 0.14 5 AAA 5B Central
26 Douglas Freeman 7 4 7.04 3.96 -0.04 65.0 297 240 0.55 5 AAA 5B Colonial
27 Freedom(R) 0 9 0.02 8.98 -0.02 31.0 38 387 0.09 5 AAA 5C Potomac
28 Highland Springs * 15 0 14.92 0.08 0.08 100.8 743 105 0.88 5 AAA 5B Capital
29 Deep Run 6 5 5.75 5.25 0.25 62.5 267 258 0.51 5 AAA 5B Colonial
30 Prince George 4 6 3.71 6.29 0.29 51.3 222 270 0.45 5 AAA 5B Central
31 Orange 2 8 1.66 8.34 0.34 37.5 170 309 0.35 5 AAA 5D Jefferson
32 Norview 3 8 2.56 8.44 0.44 47.2 240 373 0.39 5 AAA 5A Eastern
33 Potomac 2 7 1.56 7.44 0.44 54.6 166 296 0.36 5 AAA 5D Eastern
34 Rock Ridge 2 8 1.54 8.46 0.46 45.8 190 357 0.35 5 AA 5C Potomac
35 Thomas Jefferson(A) 1 6 0.52 6.48 0.48 1.3 85 216 0.28 5 AAA 5C District 5
36 William Fleming 1 8 0.47 8.53 0.53 42.3 125 366 0.25 5 AA 5D Blue Ridge
37 Briar Woods 3 8 2.40 8.60 0.60 45.8 205 329 0.38 5 AAA 5C Potomac
38 Gloucester 2 7 1.30 7.70 0.70 37.7 166 321 0.34 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
39 Mills Godwin 5 5 4.29 5.71 0.71 56.4 126 140 0.47 5 AAA 5B Colonial
40 Glen Allen 8 3 7.22 3.78 0.78 72.9 324 255 0.56 5 AAA 5B Colonial
41 Princess Anne 2 8 1.18 8.82 0.82 48.2 123 259 0.32 5 AAA 5A Beach
42 Hermitage 1 9 0.06 9.94 0.94 44.5 62 419 0.13 5 AAA 5B Colonial
43 L.C. Bird 9 3 8.02 3.98 0.98 82.2 262 202 0.56 5 AAA 5B Dominion
44 Falls Church 7 5 5.96 6.04 1.04 66.7 372 374 0.50 5 AAA 5C District 5
45 Brooke Point 7 5 5.84 6.16 1.16 79.0 246 251 0.49 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
46 Wakefield 2 8 0.78 9.22 1.22 25.8 152 379 0.29 5 AAA 5C District 5
47 Bethel 3 6 1.53 7.47 1.47 43.9 114 205 0.36 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
48 Stafford 4 6 2.51 7.49 1.49 65.5 186 279 0.40 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
49 Thomas Edison 3 8 1.29 9.71 1.71 35.2 178 376 0.32 5 AAA 5C District 5
50 Albemarle 4 7 1.72 9.28 2.28 54.5 185 345 0.35 5 AAA 5D Jefferson
51 Atlee 7 4 4.65 6.35 2.35 72.8 236 265 0.47 5 AAA 5B Capital
52 Hickory 3 7 0.55 9.45 2.45 55.8 102 293 0.26 5 AAA 5A Southeastern
53 Patrick Henry(R) 5 5 2.49 7.51 2.51 60.4 234 352 0.40 5 AAA 5D River Ridge
54 Kecoughtan 7 4 4.16 6.84 2.84 56.5 193 232 0.45 5 AAA 5A Peninsula