VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Battlefield 5 5 8.17 1.83 -3.17 53.5 261 150 0.64 6 AAA 6D Western
2 James Robinson 6 5 8.57 2.43 -2.57 76.0 338 212 0.61 6 AAA 6C District 4
3 Centreville 9 3 11.43 0.57 -2.43 81.8 370 122 0.75 6 AAA 6D District 1
4 Woodbridge 7 3 9.19 0.81 -2.19 70.8 305 124 0.71 6 AAA 6C Eastern
5 Landstown 7 5 8.96 3.04 -1.96 73.3 212 142 0.60 6 AAA 6A Beach
6 Oscar Smith 11 2 12.74 0.26 -1.74 89.9 489 116 0.81 6 AAA 6A Southeastern
7 Lake Braddock 7 4 8.72 2.28 -1.72 80.1 342 208 0.62 6 AAA 6C District 4
8 South County 7 5 8.64 3.36 -1.64 81.3 251 177 0.59 6 AAA 6C District 4
9 First Colonial 3 7 4.58 5.42 -1.58 53.8 157 167 0.48 6 AAA 6A Beach
10 South Lakes 9 3 10.53 1.47 -1.53 71.6 357 172 0.67 6 AAA 6D District 2
11 Woodside 8 3 9.47 1.53 -1.47 68.9 283 144 0.66 6 AAA 6A Peninsula
12 James Madison 10 3 11.38 1.62 -1.38 85.6 371 180 0.67 6 AAA 6D District 1
13 W.T. Woodson 11 2 12.30 0.70 -1.30 90.1 378 131 0.74 6 AAA 6C District 4
14 Mount Vernon 8 3 9.12 1.88 -1.12 67.0 438 244 0.64 6 AAA 6C District 3
15 T.C. Williams 4 6 4.69 5.31 -0.69 53.1 278 291 0.49 6 AAA 6C District 3
16 Justice / J.E.B. Stuart 7 3 7.62 2.38 -0.62 54.3 308 200 0.61 6 AAA 6C District 5
17 Colonial Forge 11 1 11.60 0.40 -0.60 102.2 409 118 0.78 6 AAA 6B Commonwealth
18 George Marshall 8 3 8.50 2.50 -0.50 61.2 305 194 0.61 6 AAA 6D District 5
19 Westfield 13 1 13.47 0.53 -0.47 96.8 496 150 0.77 6 AAA 6D District 1
20 Freedom 13 2 13.45 1.55 -0.45 96.9 566 254 0.69 6 AAA 6C Eastern
21 Herndon 4 6 4.40 5.60 -0.40 41.3 203 222 0.48 6 AAA 6D District 2
22 Frank Cox 9 3 9.36 2.64 -0.36 83.1 371 232 0.62 6 AAA 6A Beach
23 Chantilly 3 7 3.33 6.67 -0.33 50.7 211 273 0.44 6 AAA 6D District 1
24 McLean 0 10 0.32 9.68 -0.32 16.6 97 342 0.22 6 AAA 6D District 2
25 Franklin County 6 5 6.32 4.68 -0.32 65.1 199 178 0.53 6 AAA 6B Piedmont
26 Patriot 7 4 7.30 3.70 -0.30 75.0 305 237 0.56 6 AAA 6D Western
27 Washington-Lee 1 8 1.26 7.74 -0.26 25.4 142 278 0.34 6 AAA 6D District 2
28 Stonewall Jackson(M) 5 6 5.18 5.82 -0.18 65.7 227 237 0.49 6 AAA 6D Western
29 Ocean Lakes 13 1 13.16 0.84 -0.16 97.7 454 164 0.73 6 AAA 6A Beach
30 Western Branch 0 9 0.09 8.91 -0.09 36.7 59 321 0.16 6 AAA 6A Southeastern
31 Granby 0 10 0.08 9.92 -0.08 36.6 64 386 0.14 6 AAA 6A Eastern
32 Oakton 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 37.8 42 483 0.08 6 AAA 6D District 1
33 Manchester * 15 0 14.98 0.02 0.02 103.8 819 70 0.92 6 AAA 6B Dominion
34 Forest Park 1 8 0.85 8.15 0.15 39.5 107 247 0.30 6 AAA 6C Eastern
35 Clover Hill 4 6 3.82 6.18 0.18 58.0 149 178 0.46 6 AAA 6B Dominion
36 Langley 3 7 2.80 7.20 0.20 40.5 191 271 0.41 6 AAA 6D District 2
37 Tallwood 6 5 5.72 5.28 0.28 70.8 237 230 0.51 6 AAA 6A Beach
38 Hayfield 10 2 9.69 2.31 0.31 81.3 420 247 0.63 6 AAA 6C District 3
39 Yorktown 6 5 5.56 5.44 0.44 60.7 245 243 0.50 6 AAA 6D District 2
40 Riverbend 1 9 0.42 9.58 0.58 55.1 108 345 0.24 6 AAA 6B Commonwealth
41 Osbourn 1 9 0.11 9.89 0.89 40.6 75 395 0.16 6 AAA 6D Western
42 Thomas Dale 9 3 7.96 4.04 1.04 81.1 320 249 0.56 6 AAA 6B Central
43 Colgan 4 6 2.92 7.08 1.08 51.0 170 236 0.42 6 AAA 6C Eastern
44 Gar-Field 3 7 1.83 8.17 1.17 47.0 120 209 0.36 6 AAA 6C Eastern
45 James River(C) 3 8 1.80 9.20 1.20 54.0 221 404 0.35 6 AAA 6B Dominion
46 Annandale 4 6 2.78 7.22 1.22 53.1 222 316 0.41 6 AAA 6C District 3
47 Kellam 4 6 2.71 7.29 1.29 65.4 185 267 0.41 6 AAA 6A Beach
48 West Potomac 2 8 0.62 9.38 1.38 51.0 143 392 0.27 6 AAA 6C District 3
49 West Springfield 4 5 2.57 6.43 1.43 59.2 237 333 0.42 6 AAA 6C District 4
50 Bayside 6 5 4.47 6.53 1.53 70.3 233 268 0.47 6 AAA 6A Beach
51 C.D. Hylton 7 4 5.43 5.57 1.57 73.6 208 210 0.50 6 AAA 6C Eastern
52 Osbourn Park 2 8 0.37 9.63 1.63 40.5 111 372 0.23 6 AAA 6D Western
53 Cosby(C) 4 7 2.36 8.64 1.64 59.1 133 215 0.38 6 AAA 6B Dominion
54 Fairfax 3 7 1.20 8.80 1.80 53.9 126 264 0.32 6 AAA 6C District 4
55 Grassfield 4 6 1.38 8.62 2.62 63.3 134 264 0.34 6 AAA 6A Southeastern