Please report missing or incorrect scores here.
  VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Battlefield 5 4 7.83 1.17 -2.83 55.3 247 122 0.67 6 AAA 6D Western
2 Woodbridge 6 3 8.20 0.80 -2.20 73.1 275 116 0.70 6 AAA 6C Eastern
3 Landstown 6 3 8.00 1.00 -2.00 74.1 171 79 0.68 6 AAA 6A Beach
4 South County 5 4 6.94 2.06 -1.94 78.4 210 134 0.61 6 AAA 6C District 4
5 James Robinson 5 4 6.87 2.13 -1.87 78.3 261 169 0.61 6 AAA 6C District 4
6 First Colonial 2 7 3.41 5.59 -1.41 51.8 129 155 0.45 6 AAA 6A Beach
7 South Lakes 7 2 8.30 0.70 -1.30 70.1 288 115 0.71 6 AAA 6D District 2
8 Tallwood 5 4 6.16 2.84 -1.16 74.1 216 162 0.57 6 AAA 6A Beach
9 Woodside 8 2 8.97 1.03 -0.97 72.1 276 124 0.69 6 AAA 6A Peninsula
10 James Madison 7 2 7.83 1.17 -0.83 81.4 295 146 0.67 6 AAA 6D District 1
11 Oscar Smith 8 1 8.82 0.18 -0.82 87.9 349 82 0.81 6 AAA 6A Southeastern
12 Centreville 8 1 8.82 0.18 -0.82 94.3 327 78 0.81 6 AAA 6D District 1
13 Franklin County 4 4 4.80 3.20 -0.80 67.3 158 136 0.54 6 AAA 6B Piedmont
14 W.T. Woodson 8 1 8.66 0.34 -0.66 87.8 286 86 0.77 6 AAA 6C District 4
15 Frank Cox 7 2 7.62 1.38 -0.62 80.1 279 148 0.65 6 AAA 6A Beach
16 T.C. Williams 4 5 4.57 4.43 -0.57 59.2 271 268 0.50 6 AAA 6C District 3
17 Yorktown 5 4 5.55 3.45 -0.55 61.5 223 187 0.54 6 AAA 6D District 2
18 Patriot 6 3 6.54 2.46 -0.54 80.6 270 188 0.59 6 AAA 6D Western
19 Mount Vernon 7 2 7.49 1.51 -0.49 65.5 369 204 0.64 6 AAA 6C District 3
20 Lake Braddock 7 2 7.48 1.52 -0.48 88.0 319 177 0.64 6 AAA 6C District 4
21 Freedom 8 1 8.46 0.54 -0.46 88.1 382 138 0.73 6 AAA 6C Eastern
22 Stonewall Jackson(M) 5 5 5.42 4.58 -0.42 70.5 217 204 0.52 6 AAA 6D Western
23 Herndon 4 5 4.41 4.59 -0.41 40.7 196 199 0.50 6 AAA 6D District 2
24 Justice / J.E.B. Stuart 7 2 7.38 1.62 -0.38 55.1 296 169 0.64 6 AAA 6C District 5
25 McLean 0 9 0.36 8.64 -0.36 19.3 97 316 0.23 6 AAA 6D District 2
26 George Marshall 7 2 7.29 1.71 -0.29 64.0 248 145 0.63 6 AAA 6D District 5
27 Chantilly 3 6 3.26 5.74 -0.26 53.0 198 244 0.45 6 AAA 6D District 1
28 Washington-Lee 1 7 1.14 6.86 -0.14 23.9 135 262 0.34 6 AAA 6D District 2
29 Western Branch 0 8 0.11 7.89 -0.11 35.5 56 276 0.17 6 AAA 6A Southeastern
30 Granby 0 9 0.10 8.90 -0.10 34.6 64 332 0.16 6 AAA 6A Eastern
31 Osbourn 0 9 0.04 8.96 -0.04 36.7 54 395 0.12 6 AAA 6D Western
32 Oakton 0 9 0.01 8.99 -0.01 39.1 28 444 0.06 6 AAA 6D District 1
33 Manchester 9 0 8.99 0.01 0.01 102.0 539 46 0.92 6 AAA 6B Dominion
34 Clover Hill 4 5 3.92 5.08 0.08 57.2 149 164 0.48 6 AAA 6B Dominion
35 Ocean Lakes 10 0 9.88 0.12 0.12 95.4 357 69 0.84 6 AAA 6A Beach
36 Langley 2 7 1.87 7.13 0.13 40.6 165 271 0.38 6 AAA 6D District 2
37 Thomas Dale 7 2 6.85 2.15 0.15 78.0 278 181 0.61 6 AAA 6B Central
38 Colonial Forge 9 0 8.85 0.15 0.15 109.3 343 76 0.82 6 AAA 6B Commonwealth
39 Westfield 9 0 8.81 0.19 0.19 107.2 338 82 0.80 6 AAA 6D District 1
40 Forest Park 1 7 0.75 7.25 0.25 44.0 104 241 0.30 6 AAA 6C Eastern
41 Colgan 4 5 3.71 5.29 0.29 48.3 163 186 0.47 6 AAA 6C Eastern
42 James River(C) 2 7 1.68 7.32 0.32 47.7 200 345 0.37 6 AAA 6B Dominion
43 C.D. Hylton 6 3 5.50 3.50 0.50 77.0 195 165 0.54 6 AAA 6C Eastern
44 Hayfield 8 1 7.49 1.51 0.51 78.4 329 182 0.64 6 AAA 6C District 3
45 Riverbend 1 8 0.35 8.65 0.65 49.0 95 313 0.23 6 AAA 6B Commonwealth
46 Annandale 3 6 2.10 6.90 0.90 48.7 199 309 0.39 6 AAA 6C District 3
47 West Springfield 4 4 2.99 5.01 1.01 61.8 223 270 0.45 6 AAA 6C District 4
48 Gar-Field 3 6 1.98 7.02 1.02 55.9 112 179 0.38 6 AAA 6C Eastern
49 West Potomac 2 7 0.67 8.33 1.33 54.5 136 345 0.28 6 AAA 6C District 3
50 Fairfax 3 6 1.53 7.47 1.47 50.5 126 227 0.36 6 AAA 6C District 4
51 Osbourn Park 2 7 0.38 8.62 1.62 43.6 111 351 0.24 6 AAA 6D Western
52 Kellam 3 5 1.08 6.92 1.92 74.1 104 207 0.33 6 AAA 6A Beach
53 Cosby(C) 4 5 2.03 6.97 1.97 57.3 119 188 0.39 6 AAA 6B Dominion
54 Bayside 6 3 3.97 5.03 2.03 74.1 187 204 0.48 6 AAA 6A Beach
55 Grassfield 4 5 1.83 7.17 2.17 65.1 134 222 0.38 6 AAA 6A Southeastern