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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2019 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Auburn 4 4 5.87 2.13 -1.87 31.2 217 149 0.59 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
2 Hurley 4 3 5.48 1.52 -1.48 23.2 228 142 0.62 1 A 1D Black Diamond
3 Rappahannock 5 2 6.32 0.68 -1.32 39.5 306 134 0.70 1 A 1A Northern Neck
4 Holston 4 3 5.24 1.76 -1.24 30.7 222 148 0.60 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
5 J.I. Burton 5 2 6.13 0.87 -1.13 43.8 282 137 0.67 1 A 1D Cumberland
6 Middlesex 5 2 6.12 0.88 -1.12 22.3 176 86 0.67 1 A 1A Tidewater
7 Washington & Lee 5 2 5.95 1.05 -0.95 55.0 274 144 0.66 1 A 1A Northern Neck
8 West Point 4 2 4.81 1.19 -0.81 39.4 146 87 0.63 1 A 1A Tidewater
9 Colonial Beach 3 4 3.76 3.24 -0.76 34.1 207 196 0.51 1 A 1A Northern Neck
10 Essex 6 1 6.73 0.27 -0.73 50.1 323 98 0.77 1 A 1A Northern Neck
11 Franklin 2 5 2.66 4.34 -0.66 21.7 140 168 0.45 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers
12 Northampton 0 6 0.63 5.37 -0.63 -13.7 122 270 0.31 1 A 1A Eastern Shore-A
13 Galax 6 1 6.45 0.55 -0.45 68.1 308 124 0.71 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
14 Chilhowie 6 1 6.34 0.66 -0.34 53.2 289 125 0.70 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
15 Lunenburg 5 3 5.31 2.69 -0.31 35.9 269 209 0.56 1 A 1B James River
16 Castlewood 5 2 5.28 1.72 -0.28 30.9 168 111 0.60 1 A 1D Cumberland
17 Lancaster 0 7 0.03 6.97 -0.03 -4.9 44 324 0.12 1 A 1A Northern Neck
18 George Wythe(W) 5 2 5.02 1.98 -0.02 59.4 237 168 0.59 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire
19 Cumberland 0 7 0.00 7.00 -0.00 8.4 18 316 0.05 1 A 1B James River
20 Honaker 4 3 3.88 3.12 0.12 23.9 206 190 0.52 1 A 1D Black Diamond
21 William Campbell 3 4 2.88 4.12 0.12 43.0 182 208 0.47 1 A 1B Dogwood
22 Northumberland 4 3 3.87 3.13 0.13 29.4 291 269 0.52 1 A 1A Northern Neck
23 Patrick Henry(GS) 7 0 6.86 0.14 0.14 59.8 307 73 0.81 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
24 Riverheads 7 0 6.85 0.15 0.15 75.9 319 78 0.80 1 A 1B Shenandoah
25 Twin Valley 1 5 0.68 5.32 0.32 -10.0 110 236 0.32 1 A 1D Black Diamond
26 Covington 3 4 2.66 4.34 0.34 38.0 150 180 0.45 1 A 1C Pioneer
27 King & Queen 6 0 5.58 0.42 0.42 43.3 219 84 0.72 1 A 1A Tidewater
28 Thomas Walker 6 0 5.57 0.43 0.43 36.2 237 92 0.72 1 A 1D Cumberland
29 Eastern Montgomery 1 6 0.55 6.45 0.45 3.8 102 253 0.29 1 A 1C Pioneer
30 Sussex Central 6 1 5.55 1.45 0.45 44.4 260 158 0.62 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers
31 Narrows 7 0 6.50 0.50 0.50 60.6 218 84 0.72 1 A 1C Pioneer
32 Grundy 4 3 3.42 3.58 0.58 8.1 183 186 0.50 1 A 1D Black Diamond
33 Craig County 1 5 0.41 5.59 0.59 -27.4 90 237 0.28 1 A 1C Pioneer
34 Bath County 1 6 0.33 6.67 0.67 -1.7 110 334 0.25 1 A 1C Pioneer
35 Parry McCluer 1 6 0.17 6.83 0.83 9.8 60 234 0.20 1 A 1C Pioneer
36 Charles City 1 3 0.08 3.92 0.92 8.4 47 203 0.19 1 A 1A Tidewater
37 Northwood 1 6 0.07 6.93 0.93 3.0 44 247 0.15 1 A 1D Hogoheegee
38 Mathews 1 5 0.04 5.96 0.96 7.4 48 296 0.14 1 A 1A Tidewater
39 Altavista 3 4 2.01 4.99 0.99 35.9 184 258 0.42 1 A 1B Dogwood
40 Eastside 3 4 1.96 5.04 1.04 23.6 177 251 0.41 1 A 1D Cumberland
41 Rye Cove 2 4 0.87 5.13 1.13 -4.9 136 262 0.34 1 A 1D Cumberland
42 Surry 2 5 0.85 6.15 1.15 7.9 154 320 0.32 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers
43 Twin Springs 4 4 2.65 5.35 1.35 5.4 134 174 0.44 1 A 1D Cumberland
44 Rural Retreat 3 4 1.52 5.48 1.48 32.8 118 190 0.38 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire