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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2019 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Arcadia 4 3 6.26 0.74 -2.26 18.6 231 105 0.69 2 A 2A Eastern Shore-A
2 Clarke County 5 2 6.65 0.35 -1.65 57.2 247 83 0.75 2 A 2B Bull Run
3 Glenvar 4 3 5.65 1.35 -1.65 57.6 241 142 0.63 2 A 2C Three Rivers
4 Graham 5 2 6.52 0.48 -1.52 65.0 276 105 0.72 2 A 2D Southwest
5 Gretna 5 2 6.49 0.51 -1.49 55.4 312 122 0.72 2 A 2C Dogwood
6 King William 5 2 6.25 0.75 -1.25 50.5 325 148 0.69 2 A 2A Tidewater
7 Page 5 2 6.25 0.75 -1.25 46.8 259 118 0.69 2 A 2B Shenandoah
8 Nottoway 4 2 5.10 0.90 -1.10 41.8 171 90 0.66 2 A 2A James River
9 Richlands 4 3 4.98 2.02 -0.98 64.8 225 161 0.58 2 A 2D Southwest
10 Buffalo Gap 4 2 4.86 1.14 -0.86 40.7 205 120 0.63 2 B 2B Shenandoah
11 Lebanon 0 7 0.80 6.20 -0.80 -1.2 119 254 0.32 2 A 2D Southwest
12 Buckingham County 6 1 6.74 0.26 -0.74 70.1 262 79 0.77 2 B 2C James River
13 Strasburg 6 1 6.68 0.32 -0.68 46.7 265 86 0.75 2 A 2B Bull Run
14 Appomattox 5 2 5.66 1.34 -0.66 70.0 213 125 0.63 2 A 2C Dogwood
15 Thomas Jefferson(R) 6 1 6.61 0.39 -0.61 59.0 296 104 0.74 2 A 2B Colonial
16 Ridgeview 6 1 6.54 0.46 -0.54 66.0 311 116 0.73 2 A 2D Mountain
17 Radford 6 1 6.53 0.47 -0.53 64.7 299 113 0.73 2 A 2C Three Rivers
18 Martinsville 0 8 0.47 7.53 -0.47 20.7 118 330 0.26 2 A 2C Piedmont
19 Randolph-Henry 0 8 0.47 7.53 -0.47 6.0 127 356 0.26 2 A 2A James River
20 Brunswick 3 4 3.45 3.55 -0.45 18.1 195 197 0.50 2 A 2A Tri-Rivers
21 Virginia 0 7 0.44 6.56 -0.44 13.1 97 263 0.27 2 A 2D Southwest
22 Poquoson 4 1 4.39 0.61 -0.39 63.8 158 76 0.68 2 AA 2A Bay Rivers
23 Madison County 0 7 0.35 6.65 -0.35 11.4 105 311 0.25 2 A 2B Bull Run
24 Gate City 3 5 3.30 4.70 -0.30 49.4 208 237 0.47 2 A 2D Mountain
25 Lee 0 8 0.24 7.76 -0.24 26.7 107 385 0.22 2 A 2D Shenandoah
26 Union 6 2 6.21 1.79 -0.21 72.0 233 147 0.61 2 A 2D Mountain
27 Amelia County 4 3 4.03 2.97 -0.03 35.9 205 183 0.53 2 A 2A James River
28 Nelson County 4 4 4.02 3.98 -0.02 39.1 270 269 0.50 2 A 2C Dogwood
29 Bruton 0 6 0.01 5.99 -0.01 9.8 28 335 0.08 2 A 2A Bay Rivers
30 Floyd County 4 4 4.00 4.00 0.00 35.2 211 211 0.50 2 A 2C Three Rivers
31 Windsor 2 5 1.89 5.11 0.11 3.5 173 250 0.41 2 A 2A Tri-Rivers
32 Stuarts Draft 7 0 6.85 0.15 0.15 74.6 300 72 0.81 2 A 2B Shenandoah
33 Greensville 5 1 4.85 1.15 0.15 45.1 264 155 0.63 2 A 2A Tri-Rivers
34 Dan River 5 3 4.85 3.15 0.15 51.4 231 197 0.54 2 A 2C Dogwood
35 Luray 6 1 5.85 1.15 0.15 61.3 301 165 0.65 2 A 2B Bull Run
36 Prince Edward 1 6 0.83 6.17 0.17 14.6 134 281 0.32 2 A 2A James River
37 Nandua 4 4 3.80 4.20 0.20 29.6 235 244 0.49 2 A 2A Eastern Shore-A
38 Wise Central 5 2 4.78 2.22 0.22 50.4 255 192 0.57 2 A 2D Mountain
39 Chatham 5 2 4.67 2.33 0.33 39.0 237 183 0.56 2 A 2C Dogwood
40 John Battle 1 6 0.60 6.40 0.40 20.5 92 221 0.29 2 A 2D Mountain
41 Giles 1 6 0.34 6.66 0.66 30.0 70 211 0.25 2 A 2C Three Rivers
42 Grayson County 2 5 1.27 5.73 0.73 4.6 71 124 0.36 2 A 2C Mtn. Empire
43 East Rockingham 2 4 1.16 4.84 0.84 46.7 108 183 0.37 2 A 2B Shenandoah
44 Bluestone 2 4 0.82 5.18 1.18 21.9 78 154 0.34 2 A 2A James River
45 Tazewell 4 3 2.75 4.25 1.25 39.6 154 181 0.46 2 A 2D Southwest
46 Patrick County 3 5 1.72 6.28 1.28 32.3 149 241 0.38 2 A 2C Piedmont
47 R.E. Lee(ST) 2 6 0.70 7.30 1.30 32.3 109 259 0.30 2 A 2B Three Rivers
48 Fort Chiswell 4 4 2.46 5.54 1.54 35.1 128 173 0.43 2 A 2C Mtn. Empire
49 John Marshall 4 3 2.37 4.63 1.63 51.8 124 159 0.44 2 A 2A Colonial
50 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 2 5 0.25 6.75 1.75 18.0 75 255 0.23 2 A 2B Bull Run
51 Marion 3 4 0.57 6.43 2.43 31.1 91 224 0.29 2 A 2D Southwest
52 James River(B) 4 4 0.96 7.04 3.04 37.0 96 201 0.32 2 A 2C Pioneer