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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2019 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Central(W) 3 4 5.13 1.87 -2.13 34.5 167 115 0.59 3 AA 3B Northwestern
2 Brookville 3 4 4.95 2.05 -1.95 65.3 172 124 0.58 3 AA 3C Seminole
3 George Mason 4 3 5.71 1.29 -1.71 39.6 194 112 0.63 3 A 3B Northwestern
4 Independence 0 8 1.46 6.54 -1.46 22.3 182 317 0.36 3 AA 3A Dulles
5 Fluvanna 4 3 5.31 1.69 -1.31 39.2 197 129 0.60 3 AA 3C Jefferson
6 Rockbridge County 5 2 6.19 0.81 -1.19 51.5 280 132 0.68 3 AA 3C Valley
7 Turner Ashby 5 2 6.03 0.97 -1.03 52.0 242 123 0.66 3 AA 3C Valley
8 Norcom 4 2 5.00 1.00 -1.00 73.9 274 151 0.64 3 AA 3A Eastern
9 Lafayette 6 1 6.97 0.03 -0.97 74.0 366 49 0.88 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers
10 Phoebus 6 1 6.95 0.05 -0.95 76.8 307 49 0.86 3 AA 3A Peninsula
11 Magna Vista 6 1 6.84 0.16 -0.84 66.0 309 77 0.80 3 AA 3D Piedmont
12 Petersburg 3 4 3.84 3.16 -0.84 55.2 245 228 0.52 3 AA 3A Central
13 Rustburg 2 5 2.83 4.17 -0.83 54.4 111 128 0.46 3 AA 3C Seminole
14 Fort Defiance 4 3 4.82 2.18 -0.82 40.4 192 143 0.57 3 AA 3C Shenandoah
15 Western Albemarle 4 4 4.72 3.28 -0.72 39.6 207 181 0.53 3 AA 3C Jefferson
16 Goochland 6 1 6.59 0.41 -0.59 71.0 234 84 0.74 3 AA 3A James River
17 Northside 5 2 5.50 1.50 -0.50 84.5 173 107 0.62 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
18 Heritage(Lyn) 6 1 6.47 0.53 -0.47 88.4 309 122 0.72 3 AA 3C Seminole
19 Booker T. Washington 3 4 3.45 3.55 -0.45 52.5 197 199 0.50 3 AA 3A Eastern
20 Christiansburg 3 4 3.42 3.58 -0.42 51.2 173 176 0.50 3 AA 3D River Ridge
21 Tunstall 0 7 0.31 6.69 -0.31 23.6 95 295 0.24 3 AA 3D Piedmont
22 Broadway 0 7 0.17 6.83 -0.17 10.2 66 262 0.20 3 AA 3C Valley
23 Lakeland 0 7 0.05 6.95 -0.05 30.5 47 299 0.14 3 AA 3A Southeastern
24 Waynesboro 0 7 0.02 6.98 -0.02 14.2 38 318 0.11 3 AA 3C Valley
25 Alleghany 1 6 1.02 5.98 -0.02 14.8 147 283 0.34 3 AA 3C Three Rivers
26 Armstrong 0 6 0.01 5.99 -0.01 15.9 30 304 0.09 3 AA 3B Capital
27 Lord Botetourt 7 0 6.95 0.05 0.05 85.0 267 44 0.86 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
28 Spotswood 7 0 6.86 0.14 0.14 75.6 293 70 0.81 3 AA 3C Valley
29 Manassas Park 4 3 3.85 3.15 0.15 35.5 198 184 0.52 3 AA 3B Northwestern
30 New Kent 3 4 2.81 4.19 0.19 51.7 139 161 0.46 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers
31 Hidden Valley 5 2 4.80 2.20 0.20 77.7 191 143 0.57 3 AA 3D River Ridge
32 Abingdon 4 3 3.79 3.21 0.21 59.0 201 189 0.52 3 AA 3D Mountain
33 Wilson Memorial 1 6 0.78 6.22 0.22 34.7 118 254 0.32 3 AA 3B Shenandoah
34 Hopewell 7 0 6.72 0.28 0.28 90.0 318 98 0.76 3 AA 3A Central
35 William Byrd 2 5 1.63 5.37 0.37 52.8 126 196 0.39 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
36 Southampton 3 5 2.62 5.38 0.38 33.7 236 308 0.43 3 AA 3A Tri-Rivers
37 Carroll County 2 6 1.47 6.53 0.53 23.9 169 294 0.37 3 AA 3D River Ridge
38 Monticello 1 7 0.41 7.59 0.59 39.0 116 342 0.25 3 AA 3C Jefferson
39 York 6 0 5.37 0.63 0.63 84.0 153 69 0.69 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers
40 Cave Spring 1 6 0.33 6.67 0.67 37.3 89 272 0.25 3 AA 3D River Ridge
41 Skyline 3 4 2.33 4.67 0.67 42.7 207 268 0.44 3 AA 3B Northwestern
42 Staunton River 1 6 0.25 6.75 0.75 42.2 75 255 0.23 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
43 Tabb 2 4 1.23 4.77 0.77 64.0 84 139 0.38 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers
44 William Monroe 3 4 2.16 4.84 0.84 43.3 149 201 0.43 3 AA 3B Northwestern
45 Liberty(Bed) 1 7 0.13 7.87 0.87 42.2 70 321 0.18 3 AA 3C Seminole
46 Colonial Heights 1 7 0.10 7.90 0.90 26.0 58 298 0.16 3 AA 3A Central
47 Park View(SH) 2 4 1.08 4.92 0.92 27.0 92 161 0.36 3 AA 3A Tri-Rivers
48 Warren County 2 5 0.95 6.05 1.05 46.3 162 322 0.33 3 AA 3B Northwestern
49 James Monroe 4 3 2.66 4.34 1.34 61.8 135 162 0.45 3 AA 3B Battlefield
50 Brentsville 4 3 1.69 5.31 2.31 61.5 136 208 0.40 3 AA 3B Northwestern