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1999-19 Team Seasons
A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball
writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s
runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.
Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.
The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses PFALL = Points for PAALL = Points against Projected W = Projected Wins Projected L = Projected Losses
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.
1 |
Central(W)
|
3 |
4 |
5.13 |
1.87 |
-2.13 |
34.5 |
167 |
115 |
0.59 |
3 |
AA |
3B |
Northwestern |
2 |
Brookville
|
3 |
4 |
4.95 |
2.05 |
-1.95 |
65.3 |
172 |
124 |
0.58 |
3 |
AA |
3C |
Seminole |
3 |
George Mason
|
4 |
3 |
5.71 |
1.29 |
-1.71 |
39.6 |
194 |
112 |
0.63 |
3 |
A |
3B |
Northwestern |
4 |
Independence
|
0 |
8 |
1.46 |
6.54 |
-1.46 |
22.3 |
182 |
317 |
0.36 |
3 |
AA |
3A |
Dulles |
5 |
Fluvanna
|
4 |
3 |
5.31 |
1.69 |
-1.31 |
39.2 |
197 |
129 |
0.60 |
3 |
AA |
3C |
Jefferson |
6 |
Rockbridge County
|
5 |
2 |
6.19 |
0.81 |
-1.19 |
51.5 |
280 |
132 |
0.68 |
3 |
AA |
3C |
Valley |
7 |
Turner Ashby
|
5 |
2 |
6.03 |
0.97 |
-1.03 |
52.0 |
242 |
123 |
0.66 |
3 |
AA |
3C |
Valley |
8 |
Norcom
|
4 |
2 |
5.00 |
1.00 |
-1.00 |
73.9 |
274 |
151 |
0.64 |
3 |
AA |
3A |
Eastern |
9 |
Lafayette
|
6 |
1 |
6.97 |
0.03 |
-0.97 |
74.0 |
366 |
49 |
0.88 |
3 |
AA |
3A |
Bay Rivers |
10 |
Phoebus
|
6 |
1 |
6.95 |
0.05 |
-0.95 |
76.8 |
307 |
49 |
0.86 |
3 |
AA |
3A |
Peninsula |
11 |
Magna Vista
|
6 |
1 |
6.84 |
0.16 |
-0.84 |
66.0 |
309 |
77 |
0.80 |
3 |
AA |
3D |
Piedmont |
12 |
Petersburg
|
3 |
4 |
3.84 |
3.16 |
-0.84 |
55.2 |
245 |
228 |
0.52 |
3 |
AA |
3A |
Central |
13 |
Rustburg
|
2 |
5 |
2.83 |
4.17 |
-0.83 |
54.4 |
111 |
128 |
0.46 |
3 |
AA |
3C |
Seminole |
14 |
Fort Defiance
|
4 |
3 |
4.82 |
2.18 |
-0.82 |
40.4 |
192 |
143 |
0.57 |
3 |
AA |
3C |
Shenandoah |
15 |
Western Albemarle
|
4 |
4 |
4.72 |
3.28 |
-0.72 |
39.6 |
207 |
181 |
0.53 |
3 |
AA |
3C |
Jefferson |
16 |
Goochland
|
6 |
1 |
6.59 |
0.41 |
-0.59 |
71.0 |
234 |
84 |
0.74 |
3 |
AA |
3A |
James River |
17 |
Northside
|
5 |
2 |
5.50 |
1.50 |
-0.50 |
84.5 |
173 |
107 |
0.62 |
3 |
AA |
3D |
Blue Ridge |
18 |
Heritage(Lyn)
|
6 |
1 |
6.47 |
0.53 |
-0.47 |
88.4 |
309 |
122 |
0.72 |
3 |
AA |
3C |
Seminole |
19 |
Booker T. Washington
|
3 |
4 |
3.45 |
3.55 |
-0.45 |
52.5 |
197 |
199 |
0.50 |
3 |
AA |
3A |
Eastern |
20 |
Christiansburg
|
3 |
4 |
3.42 |
3.58 |
-0.42 |
51.2 |
173 |
176 |
0.50 |
3 |
AA |
3D |
River Ridge |
21 |
Tunstall
|
0 |
7 |
0.31 |
6.69 |
-0.31 |
23.6 |
95 |
295 |
0.24 |
3 |
AA |
3D |
Piedmont |
22 |
Broadway
|
0 |
7 |
0.17 |
6.83 |
-0.17 |
10.2 |
66 |
262 |
0.20 |
3 |
AA |
3C |
Valley |
23 |
Lakeland
|
0 |
7 |
0.05 |
6.95 |
-0.05 |
30.5 |
47 |
299 |
0.14 |
3 |
AA |
3A |
Southeastern |
24 |
Waynesboro
|
0 |
7 |
0.02 |
6.98 |
-0.02 |
14.2 |
38 |
318 |
0.11 |
3 |
AA |
3C |
Valley |
25 |
Alleghany
|
1 |
6 |
1.02 |
5.98 |
-0.02 |
14.8 |
147 |
283 |
0.34 |
3 |
AA |
3C |
Three Rivers |
26 |
Armstrong
|
0 |
6 |
0.01 |
5.99 |
-0.01 |
15.9 |
30 |
304 |
0.09 |
3 |
AA |
3B |
Capital |
27 |
Lord Botetourt
|
7 |
0 |
6.95 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
85.0 |
267 |
44 |
0.86 |
3 |
AA |
3D |
Blue Ridge |
28 |
Spotswood
|
7 |
0 |
6.86 |
0.14 |
0.14 |
75.6 |
293 |
70 |
0.81 |
3 |
AA |
3C |
Valley |
29 |
Manassas Park
|
4 |
3 |
3.85 |
3.15 |
0.15 |
35.5 |
198 |
184 |
0.52 |
3 |
AA |
3B |
Northwestern |
30 |
New Kent
|
3 |
4 |
2.81 |
4.19 |
0.19 |
51.7 |
139 |
161 |
0.46 |
3 |
AA |
3A |
Bay Rivers |
31 |
Hidden Valley
|
5 |
2 |
4.80 |
2.20 |
0.20 |
77.7 |
191 |
143 |
0.57 |
3 |
AA |
3D |
River Ridge |
32 |
Abingdon
|
4 |
3 |
3.79 |
3.21 |
0.21 |
59.0 |
201 |
189 |
0.52 |
3 |
AA |
3D |
Mountain |
33 |
Wilson Memorial
|
1 |
6 |
0.78 |
6.22 |
0.22 |
34.7 |
118 |
254 |
0.32 |
3 |
AA |
3B |
Shenandoah |
34 |
Hopewell
|
7 |
0 |
6.72 |
0.28 |
0.28 |
90.0 |
318 |
98 |
0.76 |
3 |
AA |
3A |
Central |
35 |
William Byrd
|
2 |
5 |
1.63 |
5.37 |
0.37 |
52.8 |
126 |
196 |
0.39 |
3 |
AA |
3D |
Blue Ridge |
36 |
Southampton
|
3 |
5 |
2.62 |
5.38 |
0.38 |
33.7 |
236 |
308 |
0.43 |
3 |
AA |
3A |
Tri-Rivers |
37 |
Carroll County
|
2 |
6 |
1.47 |
6.53 |
0.53 |
23.9 |
169 |
294 |
0.37 |
3 |
AA |
3D |
River Ridge |
38 |
Monticello
|
1 |
7 |
0.41 |
7.59 |
0.59 |
39.0 |
116 |
342 |
0.25 |
3 |
AA |
3C |
Jefferson |
39 |
York
|
6 |
0 |
5.37 |
0.63 |
0.63 |
84.0 |
153 |
69 |
0.69 |
3 |
AA |
3A |
Bay Rivers |
40 |
Cave Spring
|
1 |
6 |
0.33 |
6.67 |
0.67 |
37.3 |
89 |
272 |
0.25 |
3 |
AA |
3D |
River Ridge |
41 |
Skyline
|
3 |
4 |
2.33 |
4.67 |
0.67 |
42.7 |
207 |
268 |
0.44 |
3 |
AA |
3B |
Northwestern |
42 |
Staunton River
|
1 |
6 |
0.25 |
6.75 |
0.75 |
42.2 |
75 |
255 |
0.23 |
3 |
AA |
3D |
Blue Ridge |
43 |
Tabb
|
2 |
4 |
1.23 |
4.77 |
0.77 |
64.0 |
84 |
139 |
0.38 |
3 |
AA |
3A |
Bay Rivers |
44 |
William Monroe
|
3 |
4 |
2.16 |
4.84 |
0.84 |
43.3 |
149 |
201 |
0.43 |
3 |
AA |
3B |
Northwestern |
45 |
Liberty(Bed)
|
1 |
7 |
0.13 |
7.87 |
0.87 |
42.2 |
70 |
321 |
0.18 |
3 |
AA |
3C |
Seminole |
46 |
Colonial Heights
|
1 |
7 |
0.10 |
7.90 |
0.90 |
26.0 |
58 |
298 |
0.16 |
3 |
AA |
3A |
Central |
47 |
Park View(SH)
|
2 |
4 |
1.08 |
4.92 |
0.92 |
27.0 |
92 |
161 |
0.36 |
3 |
AA |
3A |
Tri-Rivers |
48 |
Warren County
|
2 |
5 |
0.95 |
6.05 |
1.05 |
46.3 |
162 |
322 |
0.33 |
3 |
AA |
3B |
Northwestern |
49 |
James Monroe
|
4 |
3 |
2.66 |
4.34 |
1.34 |
61.8 |
135 |
162 |
0.45 |
3 |
AA |
3B |
Battlefield |
50 |
Brentsville
|
4 |
3 |
1.69 |
5.31 |
2.31 |
61.5 |
136 |
208 |
0.40 |
3 |
AA |
3B |
Northwestern |
|