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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2019 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Blacksburg 5 3 6.68 1.32 -1.68 71.7 228 125 0.65 4 AA 4D River Ridge
2 Sherando 3 2 4.22 0.78 -1.22 75.0 155 83 0.65 4 AA 4C Northwestern
3 Loudoun Valley 5 3 6.14 1.86 -1.14 68.7 185 119 0.61 4 AA 4C Dulles
4 Warwick 4 4 5.11 2.89 -1.11 53.3 168 136 0.55 4 AA 4A Peninsula
5 Churchland 6 2 7.02 0.98 -1.02 78.6 241 116 0.68 4 AA 4A Eastern
6 Kettle Run 0 7 0.82 6.18 -0.82 31.0 110 232 0.32 4 AA 4C Northwestern
7 GW-Danville 5 2 5.77 1.23 -0.77 70.7 339 191 0.64 4 AA 4D Piedmont
8 Patrick Henry(A) 5 3 5.72 2.28 -0.72 68.8 211 150 0.58 4 AA 4B Capital
9 Loudoun County 6 2 6.70 1.30 -0.70 78.3 233 127 0.65 4 AA 4C Dulles
10 Huguenot 3 3 3.64 2.36 -0.64 66.7 183 156 0.54 4 AA 4B Dominion
11 Hampton 5 3 5.61 2.39 -0.61 62.2 170 124 0.58 4 AAA 4A Peninsula
12 Menchville 3 4 3.59 3.41 -0.59 43.8 111 109 0.50 4 AA 4A Peninsula
13 Tuscarora 6 1 6.58 0.42 -0.58 90.4 219 79 0.73 4 AA 4C Dulles
14 Pulaski County 7 1 7.53 0.47 -0.53 86.8 213 76 0.74 4 AA 4D River Ridge
15 Powhatan 3 4 3.50 3.50 -0.50 59.0 131 131 0.50 4 AA 4B Jefferson
16 Millbrook 4 2 4.48 1.52 -0.48 63.5 221 148 0.60 4 AA 4C Northwestern
17 Courtland 1 7 1.40 6.60 -0.40 39.5 151 268 0.36 4 AA 4B Battlefield
18 Chancellor 5 3 5.24 2.76 -0.24 62.5 274 216 0.56 4 AA 4B Battlefield
19 Dinwiddie 3 4 3.19 3.81 -0.19 75.3 205 219 0.48 4 AA 4B Central
20 Kings Fork 2 5 2.18 4.82 -0.18 50.9 135 181 0.43 4 AA 4A Southeastern
21 George Wythe(R) 0 6 0.17 5.83 -0.17 25.0 72 265 0.21 4 AA 4B Dominion
22 Jefferson Forest 4 3 4.14 2.86 -0.14 70.5 212 185 0.53 4 AA 4D Seminole
23 Park View(St) 0 6 0.12 5.88 -0.12 12.5 77 322 0.19 4 AA 4C Dulles
24 Charlottesville 0 8 0.10 7.90 -0.10 29.1 68 340 0.17 4 AA 4D Jefferson
25 Denbigh 0 7 0.10 6.90 -0.10 16.3 52 250 0.17 4 AA 4A Peninsula
26 Monacan 5 1 5.02 0.98 -0.02 76.0 198 108 0.65 4 AA 4B Dominion
27 Spotsylvania 5 2 4.98 2.02 0.02 61.5 225 161 0.58 4 AA 4B Battlefield
28 Eastern View 8 0 7.96 0.04 0.04 87.0 374 54 0.87 4 AA 4B Battlefield
29 King George 3 4 2.94 4.06 0.06 60.3 166 187 0.47 4 AA 4B Battlefield
30 E.C. Glass 7 0 6.89 0.11 0.11 92.0 330 71 0.82 4 AA 4D Seminole
31 Heritage(Le) 1 7 0.88 7.12 0.12 37.7 81 176 0.32 4 AA 4C Dulles
32 Culpeper County 1 7 0.86 7.14 0.14 44.1 101 221 0.31 4 AA 4B Northwestern
33 Warhill 6 0 5.85 0.15 0.15 79.8 233 60 0.80 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
34 Louisa 7 0 6.84 0.16 0.16 92.4 295 74 0.80 4 AA 4B Jefferson
35 Great Bridge 3 4 2.81 4.19 0.19 52.9 158 183 0.46 4 AA 4A Southeastern
36 Handley 6 0 5.71 0.29 0.29 83.3 237 79 0.75 4 AA 4C Northwestern
37 Caroline 1 6 0.60 6.40 0.40 32.9 117 281 0.29 4 AA 4B Battlefield
38 Heritage(NN) 1 7 0.41 7.59 0.59 31.9 58 171 0.25 4 AA 4A Peninsula
39 Amherst County 1 6 0.35 6.65 0.65 54.5 100 296 0.25 4 AA 4D Seminole
40 Hanover 1 6 0.29 6.71 0.71 35.9 84 269 0.24 4 AA 4B Capital
41 Lake Taylor 6 2 5.21 2.79 0.79 88.1 291 231 0.56 4 AA 4A Eastern
42 Woodrow Wilson 1 6 0.11 6.89 0.89 38.4 60 275 0.18 4 AA 4A Eastern
43 Grafton 1 6 0.09 6.91 0.91 34.7 51 255 0.17 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
44 James Wood 5 2 4.06 2.94 0.94 62.2 250 222 0.53 4 AA 4C Northwestern
45 Liberty(Beal) 8 0 6.93 1.07 1.07 82.6 288 144 0.67 4 AA 4C Northwestern
46 Salem 6 1 4.93 2.07 1.07 90.0 237 172 0.58 4 AA 4D River Ridge
47 Lee-Davis 2 5 0.89 6.11 1.11 40.2 92 188 0.33 4 AA 4B Capital
48 Smithfield 2 4 0.53 5.47 1.47 50.0 68 161 0.30 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
49 Fauquier 4 4 2.48 5.52 1.52 61.5 130 175 0.43 4 AA 4C Northwestern
50 Bassett 5 3 3.34 4.66 1.66 54.3 160 181 0.47 4 AA 4D Piedmont
51 Jamestown 2 5 0.30 6.70 1.70 46.0 63 200 0.24 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
52 Dominion 3 4 0.88 6.12 2.12 55.3 95 195 0.33 4 AA 4C Dulles