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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2019 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Glen Allen 4 3 6.50 0.50 -2.50 58.4 223 86 0.72 5 AAA 5B Colonial
2 Frank Cox 4 3 5.72 1.28 -1.72 66.0 186 107 0.63 5 AAA 5A Beach
3 Atlee 2 4 3.62 2.38 -1.62 55.0 145 124 0.54 5 AAA 5B Capital
4 Nansemond River 5 2 5.99 1.01 -0.99 79.9 236 122 0.66 5 AAA 5A Southeastern
5 Matoaca 5 2 5.97 1.03 -0.97 75.2 188 98 0.66 5 AAA 5B Central
6 Briar Woods 5 2 5.94 1.06 -0.94 74.9 182 96 0.65 5 AAA 5C Potomac
7 Mountain View 6 2 6.91 1.09 -0.91 87.3 254 128 0.66 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
8 Orange 3 5 3.90 4.10 -0.90 44.0 223 227 0.50 5 AAA 5D Jefferson
9 Woodgrove 3 4 3.90 3.10 -0.90 73.2 159 146 0.52 5 AA 5C Dulles
10 Varina 7 1 7.87 0.13 -0.87 91.6 430 95 0.82 5 AAA 5B Capital
11 Deep Creek 6 1 6.80 0.20 -0.80 81.4 268 72 0.79 5 AAA 5A Southeastern
12 L.C. Bird 4 3 4.78 2.22 -0.78 66.5 97 73 0.57 5 AAA 5B Dominion
13 Patrick Henry(R) 5 3 5.54 2.46 -0.54 70.2 262 194 0.57 5 AAA 5D River Ridge
14 Princess Anne 5 2 5.48 1.52 -0.48 84.7 196 122 0.62 5 AAA 5A Beach
15 Indian River 5 2 5.41 1.59 -0.41 92.5 219 139 0.61 5 AAA 5A Southeastern
16 Manchester 6 1 6.30 0.70 -0.30 97.0 268 119 0.69 5 AAA 5B Dominion
17 Prince George 5 2 5.29 1.71 -0.29 72.5 170 112 0.60 5 AAA 5B Central
18 Kempsville 0 7 0.24 6.76 -0.24 37.8 70 241 0.23 5 AAA 5A Beach
19 Bayside 3 4 3.16 3.84 -0.16 62.1 119 128 0.48 5 AAA 5A Beach
20 Clover Hill 5 2 5.09 1.91 -0.09 75.1 158 110 0.59 5 AAA 5B Dominion
21 R.E. Lee(S) 0 6 0.08 5.92 -0.08 24.4 51 257 0.17 5 AAA 5C National
22 First Colonial 0 8 0.02 7.98 -0.02 37.7 31 279 0.10 5 AAA 5A Beach
23 Meadowbrook 0 7 0.01 6.99 -0.01 30.3 29 353 0.08 5 AAA 5B Central
24 Freedom(R) 2 5 2.01 4.99 -0.01 41.9 167 234 0.42 5 AAA 5C Potomac
25 Salem(VB) 7 0 7.00 0.00 0.00 97.4 299 12 0.96 5 AAA 5A Beach
26 Woodside 8 0 7.99 0.01 0.01 76.7 251 17 0.94 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
27 William Fleming 2 5 1.99 5.01 0.01 52.0 145 204 0.42 5 AA 5D Blue Ridge
28 Douglas Freeman 5 2 4.98 2.02 0.02 70.2 134 96 0.58 5 AAA 5B Colonial
29 Maury 7 0 6.97 0.03 0.03 97.3 341 46 0.88 5 AAA 5A Eastern
30 Midlothian 1 6 0.93 6.07 0.07 58.5 69 138 0.33 5 AAA 5B Dominion
31 Stone Bridge 7 0 6.87 0.13 0.13 98.0 316 73 0.81 5 AAA 5C Potomac
32 Green Run 4 3 3.86 3.14 0.14 61.3 161 149 0.52 5 AAA 5A Beach
33 Highland Springs 7 0 6.85 0.15 0.15 109.1 258 63 0.80 5 AAA 5B Capital
34 Broad Run 7 0 6.85 0.15 0.15 94.0 303 74 0.80 5 AAA 5C Potomac
35 Gloucester 5 3 4.84 3.16 0.16 66.4 185 158 0.54 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
36 Norview 1 7 0.74 7.26 0.26 44.5 115 268 0.30 5 AAA 5A Eastern
37 Harrisonburg 4 3 3.68 3.32 0.32 46.7 183 176 0.51 5 AA 5D Valley
38 Hermitage 2 5 1.62 5.38 0.38 56.1 152 237 0.39 5 AAA 5B Colonial
39 Thomas Jefferson(A) 1 1 0.61 1.39 0.39 54.7 28 38 0.42 5 AAA 5C National
40 Deep Run 7 0 6.61 0.39 0.39 85.0 242 85 0.74 5 AAA 5B Colonial
41 Halifax County 5 2 4.59 2.41 0.41 58.0 203 160 0.56 5 AAA 5D Piedmont
42 Potomac 1 6 0.50 6.50 0.50 40.0 84 217 0.28 5 AAA 6B Cardinal
43 Henrico 4 4 3.43 4.57 0.57 75.8 178 198 0.47 5 AAA 5B Capital
44 Stafford 2 5 1.23 5.77 0.77 53.7 109 193 0.36 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
45 Kecoughtan 1 7 0.11 7.89 0.89 31.1 57 275 0.17 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
46 J.R. Tucker 1 6 0.11 6.89 0.89 34.7 41 193 0.18 5 AAA 5B Colonial
47 Brooke Point 1 6 0.10 6.90 0.90 63.0 50 243 0.17 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
48 North Stafford 4 3 3.08 3.92 0.92 77.4 193 211 0.48 5 AAA 5D Commonwealth
49 Rock Ridge 2 6 0.83 7.17 1.17 45.8 125 278 0.31 5 AA 5C Potomac
50 Wakefield 3 4 1.76 5.24 1.24 46.0 131 196 0.40 5 AAA 5C National
51 Granby 2 4 0.70 5.30 1.30 38.4 71 150 0.32 5 AAA 5A Eastern
52 Albemarle 2 5 0.58 6.42 1.42 43.7 102 249 0.29 5 AAA 5D Jefferson
53 Bethel 3 4 1.54 5.46 1.46 53.6 140 224 0.38 5 AAA 5A Peninsula
54 Mills Godwin 3 5 1.47 6.53 1.53 49.9 102 177 0.37 5 AAA 5B Colonial
55 Riverside 4 3 1.97 5.03 2.03 68.4 111 157 0.41 5 AA 5C Potomac
56 Hickory 3 4 0.86 6.14 2.14 58.8 90 186 0.33 5 AAA 5A Southeastern