VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2019 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 West Potomac 3 4 5.25 1.75 -2.25 52.1 245 163 0.60 6 AAA 6C Gunston
2 South Lakes 4 3 6.07 0.93 -2.07 63.0 190 95 0.67 6 AAA 6D Liberty
3 Thomas Dale 4 3 5.93 1.07 -1.93 70.0 234 124 0.65 6 AAA 6A Central
4 Annandale 0 8 1.73 6.27 -1.73 29.6 172 277 0.38 6 AAA 6C Gunston
5 Landstown 6 2 7.58 0.42 -1.58 79.0 231 79 0.75 6 AAA 6A Beach
6 John Champe 5 3 6.43 1.57 -1.43 75.0 221 131 0.63 6 AAA 6B Potomac
7 Centreville 4 3 5.28 1.72 -1.28 73.3 171 113 0.60 6 AAA 6D Concorde
8 Gar-Field 5 2 6.16 0.84 -1.16 68.3 199 95 0.68 6 AAA 6C Eastern
9 James Robinson 3 4 4.00 3.00 -1.00 53.3 209 188 0.53 6 AAA 6C Patriot
10 Oscar Smith 6 1 6.95 0.05 -0.95 94.5 315 50 0.86 6 AAA 6A Southeastern
11 Yorktown 6 1 6.93 0.07 -0.93 71.2 232 42 0.85 6 AAA 6D Liberty
12 Colonial Forge 6 1 6.86 0.14 -0.86 97.0 266 63 0.81 6 AAA 6B Commonwealth
13 Stonewall Jackson(M) 6 1 6.78 0.22 -0.78 89.8 205 58 0.78 6 AAA 6D Western
14 Franklin County 4 3 4.75 2.25 -0.75 82.0 169 128 0.57 6 AAA 6A Piedmont
15 Chantilly 6 1 6.75 0.25 -0.75 71.0 260 77 0.77 6 AAA 6D Concorde
16 George Marshall 3 4 3.71 3.29 -0.71 54.3 185 177 0.51 6 AAA 6D National
17 Hayfield 0 7 0.40 6.60 -0.40 47.0 101 284 0.26 6 AAA 6C Gunston
18 West Springfield 5 2 5.39 1.61 -0.39 73.5 280 179 0.61 6 AAA 6C Patriot
19 Massaponax 7 1 7.26 0.74 -0.26 92.3 338 145 0.70 6 AAA 6B Commonwealth
20 Thomas Edison 1 6 1.17 5.83 -0.17 42.6 112 203 0.36 6 AAA 6C National
21 Patriot 6 1 6.17 0.83 -0.17 83.9 235 112 0.68 6 AAA 6D Cedar Run
22 Lake Braddock 6 1 6.15 0.85 -0.15 84.6 299 144 0.67 6 AAA 6C Patriot
23 James Madison 5 3 5.14 2.86 -0.14 83.0 154 124 0.55 6 AAA 6D District 1
24 Fairfax 3 4 3.12 3.88 -0.12 47.0 180 195 0.48 6 AAA 6C Patriot
25 Herndon 0 5 0.03 4.97 -0.03 20.9 29 183 0.14 6 AAA 6D Liberty
26 Mount Vernon 6 1 6.00 1.00 -0.00 80.2 237 122 0.66 6 AAA 6C Gunston
27 Cosby(C) 5 2 4.98 2.02 0.02 63.8 148 106 0.58 6 AAA 6A Dominion
28 T.C. Williams 6 2 5.94 2.06 0.06 73.4 327 221 0.60 6 AAA 6C Gunston
29 Freedom 7 0 6.91 0.09 0.09 99.3 305 62 0.83 6 AAA 6C Cardinal
30 South County 7 0 6.82 0.18 0.18 95.0 279 73 0.79 6 AAA 6C Patriot
31 Westfield 7 0 6.77 0.23 0.23 106.0 276 79 0.78 6 AAA 6D Concorde
32 Washington-Liberty 3 4 2.67 4.33 0.33 43.7 132 158 0.46 6 AAA 6D Liberty
33 Langley 2 5 1.67 5.33 0.33 42.5 154 237 0.39 6 AAA 6D Liberty
34 Forest Park 2 5 1.62 5.38 0.38 54.2 143 223 0.39 6 AAA 6C Eastern
35 James River(C) 1 6 0.61 6.39 0.39 45.7 104 248 0.30 6 AAA 6A Dominion
36 Osbourn 2 5 1.53 5.47 0.47 43.0 144 231 0.38 6 AAA 6D Western
37 Grassfield 3 4 2.45 4.55 0.55 67.1 160 201 0.44 6 AAA 6A Southeastern
38 Colgan 1 6 0.43 6.57 0.57 40.7 80 219 0.27 6 AAA 6B Eastern
39 Riverbend 1 6 0.25 6.75 0.75 66.2 76 258 0.23 6 AAA 6B Commonwealth
40 Woodbridge 3 4 2.17 4.83 0.83 62.6 125 168 0.43 6 AAA 6C Cardinal
41 Osbourn Park 1 6 0.09 6.91 0.91 43.3 41 205 0.17 6 AAA 6D Western
42 Justice / J.E.B. Stuart 3 3 1.78 4.22 1.22 54.4 157 216 0.42 6 AAA 6C District 5
43 Ocean Lakes 5 3 3.72 4.28 1.28 83.0 171 180 0.49 6 AAA 6A Beach
44 Oakton 2 6 0.68 7.32 1.32 50.6 125 301 0.29 6 AAA 6D Concorde
45 Falls Church 6 1 4.64 2.36 1.36 64.0 171 133 0.56 6 AAA 6C National
46 Kellam 2 5 0.62 6.38 1.38 59.5 96 228 0.30 6 AAA 6A Beach
47 Western Branch 2 5 0.59 6.41 1.41 58.1 101 244 0.29 6 AAA 6A Southeastern
48 Battlefield 2 5 0.55 6.45 1.45 66.9 77 191 0.29 6 AAA 6B Western
49 C.D. Hylton 5 3 3.53 4.47 1.47 80.4 196 214 0.48 6 AAA 6C Eastern
50 Tallwood 3 4 1.28 5.72 1.72 62.0 97 169 0.36 6 AAA 6A Beach
51 W.T. Woodson 3 4 1.20 5.80 1.80 62.8 145 260 0.36 6 AAA 6C Patriot
52 McLean 3 3 0.97 5.03 2.03 53.7 92 169 0.35 6 AAA 6D Liberty