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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2007 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Washington & Lee 5 5 8.45 1.55 -3.45 27.8 242 129 0.65 2 A A Northern Neck  9  3   55.4 4
2 Floyd County 7 4 8.99 2.01 -1.99 42.2 341 196 0.64 2 A C Three Rivers  13  1   63.4 6
3 Lebanon 8 3 9.87 1.13 -1.87 52.6 390 175 0.69 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  9  4   47.0 1
4 Wilson Memorial 5 5 6.85 3.15 -1.85 31.8 152 114 0.57 2 A B Shenandoah  5  5   23.5 0
5 Lee 7 3 8.61 1.39 -1.61 38.1 257 131 0.66 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  4  6   31.6 -3
6 Honaker 5 5 6.47 3.53 -1.47 30.1 313 250 0.56 2 A D Black Diamond  4  6   22.8 -1
7 Madison County 5 5 6.43 3.57 -1.43 29.5 255 205 0.55 2 A B Bull Run  8  2   44.4 3
8 Strasburg 6 4 7.30 2.70 -1.30 34.9 221 153 0.59 2 A B Bull Run  2  8   9.0 -4
9 George Wythe(W) 11 2 12.24 0.76 -1.24 57.0 384 137 0.74 2 A C Hogoheegee  6  5   37.6 -5
10 James River(B) 6 3 7.18 1.82 -1.18 32.5 218 131 0.62 2 A C Pioneer  4  5   15.7 -2
11 Chilhowie 8 2 9.11 0.89 -1.11 40.1 294 124 0.70 2 A C Hogoheegee  10  2   46.2 2
12 Radford 5 5 6.07 3.93 -1.07 35.9 262 223 0.54 2 A C Three Rivers  7  3   39.4 2
13 Buckingham County 5 5 6.06 3.94 -1.06 30.2 291 248 0.54 2 A B James River  5  5   33.2 0
14 Auburn 5 5 5.82 4.18 -0.82 18.7 234 207 0.53 2 A C Three Rivers  2  8   2.5 -3
15 George Mason 7 3 7.79 2.21 -0.79 40.9 303 190 0.61 2 A B Bull Run  1  9   3.3 -6
16 Chatham 6 4 6.76 3.24 -0.76 38.2 206 157 0.57 2 A B Dogwood  2  8   22.5 -4
17 Giles 10 2 10.44 1.56 -0.44 61.1 406 201 0.67 2 A C Three Rivers  6  5   37.6 -4
18 Grayson County 8 3 8.35 2.65 -0.35 37.6 318 208 0.60 2 A C Mtn. Empire  0  10   -11.7 -8
19 King William 7 6 7.27 5.73 -0.27 34.7 295 270 0.52 2 A A Tidewater  6  5   35.7 -1
20 Essex 11 1 11.14 0.86 -0.14 46.2 455 176 0.72 2 A A Northern Neck  12  1   60.5 1
21 Gretna * 14 0 13.91 0.09 0.09 73.4 637 100 0.86 2 A B Dogwood  13  1   71.0 -1
22 Fort Chiswell 1 9 0.83 9.17 0.17 -2.6 142 345 0.29 2 A C Mtn. Empire  6  4   24.7 5
23 Northampton 4 6 3.77 6.23 0.23 16.2 226 272 0.45 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  4  6   24.3 0
24 Windsor 6 4 5.73 4.27 0.27 28.7 262 235 0.53 2 A A Tri-Rivers  6  4   36.1 0
25 Middlesex 1 9 0.58 9.42 0.42 -4.5 117 328 0.26 2 A A Tidewater  1  9   4.9 0
26 Randolph-Henry 1 9 0.52 9.48 0.48 4.9 118 347 0.25 2 A B James River  3  7   19.4 2
27 Glenvar 3 7 2.51 7.49 0.49 8.2 162 243 0.40 2 A C Three Rivers  6  4   23.1 3
28 Gate City 10 4 9.40 4.60 0.60 59.1 327 251 0.57 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  9  3   50.2 -1
29 Nandua 1 9 0.33 9.67 0.67 -3.1 91 319 0.22 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  3  7   14.4 2
30 Clarke County 8 3 7.30 3.70 0.70 50.4 252 196 0.56 2 A B Bull Run  9  3   51.2 1
31 Appomattox 8 3 7.25 3.75 0.75 51.7 319 250 0.56 2 A B Dogwood  8  3   50.9 0
32 Lancaster 8 3 7.23 3.77 0.77 27.8 299 235 0.56 2 A A Northern Neck  5  5   29.3 -3
33 Dan River 1 9 0.11 9.89 0.89 16.7 54 287 0.16 2 A B Dogwood  4  6   39.6 3
34 Goochland 11 1 9.86 2.14 1.14 60.9 424 241 0.64 2 A B James River  6  5   42.6 -5
35 Arcadia 5 5 3.63 6.37 1.37 20.0 255 314 0.45 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  0  10   -3.5 -5
36 John Battle 3 7 1.58 8.42 1.42 12.8 184 342 0.35 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  0  10   -8.8 -3
37 Patrick Henry(GS) 4 6 2.39 7.61 1.61 22.1 185 284 0.39 2 A C Hogoheegee  4  6   12.9 0
38 Virginia 4 6 1.15 8.85 2.85 31.2 117 249 0.32 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  3  7   12.8 -1