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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2013 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Appomattox 7 5 10.13 1.87 -3.13 51.4 387 207 0.65 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  6  5   51.1 -1
2 Brunswick 12 3 14.37 0.63 -2.37 63.6 514 161 0.76 2 AA I Southside  9  4   49.8 -3
3 Marion 6 5 8.27 2.73 -2.27 33.0 356 236 0.60 2 AA IV Southwest  10  2   59.0 4
4 Strasburg 3 7 5.24 4.76 -2.24 20.7 204 197 0.51 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  7  4   35.2 4
5 King William 8 3 9.94 1.06 -1.94 41.7 461 201 0.70 2 A D-2 Eastern Tidewater  10  3   41.6 2
6 Tazewell 2 8 3.77 6.23 -1.77 27.1 275 331 0.45 2 AA IV Southwest  5  6   32.2 3
7 Gretna 7 4 8.55 2.45 -1.55 54.0 359 226 0.61 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  1  9   23.7 -6
8 Buckingham County 10 4 11.51 2.49 -1.51 60.4 511 290 0.64 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  8  4   54.2 -2
9 Lee 5 6 6.33 4.67 -1.33 31.4 292 261 0.53 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  9  3   51.5 4
10 Chatham 6 4 7.20 2.80 -1.20 38.5 346 244 0.59 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  5  6   37.8 -1
11 Dan River 9 3 10.17 1.83 -1.17 59.2 368 195 0.65 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  7  4   52.2 -2
12 Prince Edward 1 9 2.04 7.96 -1.04 16.1 195 323 0.38 2 AA I Southside  4  7   32.8 3
13 Goochland 10 3 10.97 2.03 -0.97 61.2 558 299 0.65 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  9  3   60.4 -1
14 Grayson County 5 6 5.90 5.10 -0.90 32.0 323 306 0.51 2 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire  3  7   26.8 -2
15 R.E. Lee(ST) 8 4 8.85 3.15 -0.85 54.8 327 223 0.59 2 AA III Valley  6  5   41.9 -2
16 Wise Central 1 9 1.76 8.24 -0.76 5.3 174 308 0.36 2 AA D-2 Western Mountain  4  7   30.7 3
17 Graham 6 5 6.73 4.27 -0.73 35.4 360 304 0.54 2 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire  4  7   25.8 -2
18 Riverheads 12 2 12.70 1.30 -0.70 61.4 579 249 0.70 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  11  1   58.4 -1
19 Amelia County 5 6 5.38 5.62 -0.38 36.4 310 315 0.50 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  6  5   39.1 1
20 Clarke County 12 1 12.38 0.62 -0.38 61.9 463 153 0.75 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  11  1   51.1 -1
21 Virginia 6 6 6.38 5.62 -0.38 37.6 374 357 0.51 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  2  8   26.1 -4
22 John Battle 6 5 6.25 4.75 -0.25 38.4 278 251 0.53 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  2  8   21.4 -4
23 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 1 9 1.15 8.85 -0.15 19.4 188 401 0.32 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  1  9   9.6 0
24 Nelson County 0 10 0.10 9.90 -0.10 10.9 83 457 0.15 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  2  8   15.5 2
25 East Rockingham 7 4 7.09 3.91 -0.09 46.4 288 231 0.55 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  9  3   49.9 2
26 Nandua 6 5 5.96 5.04 0.04 15.5 285 268 0.52 2 A D-2 Eastern Eastern Shore-A  7  4   28.1 1
27 Windsor 1 9 0.90 9.10 0.10 2.9 142 335 0.30 2 A D-2 Eastern Tri-Rivers  2  8   1.3 1
28 Wilson Memorial 10 2 9.83 2.17 0.17 62.0 380 217 0.64 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  13  2   63.6 3
29 Floyd County 2 8 1.78 8.22 0.22 11.2 181 319 0.36 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers  2  8   25.6 0
30 Martinsville 3 7 2.77 7.23 0.23 30.8 218 311 0.41 2 AA IV Piedmont  1  10   28.7 -2
31 Bruton 8 4 7.68 4.32 0.32 58.0 302 244 0.55 2 AA I Bay Rivers  2  9   20.7 -6
32 Union 9 3 8.63 3.37 0.37 59.6 357 252 0.59 2 A D-2 Western Mountain  9  3   57.1 0
33 Glenvar 5 6 4.57 6.43 0.43 36.3 289 328 0.47 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers  14  1   72.4 9
34 Bluestone 3 7 2.39 7.61 0.61 23.3 202 310 0.39 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  1  9   8.4 -2
35 George Mason 6 5 5.38 5.62 0.62 36.4 253 257 0.50 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  2  8   4.8 -4
36 Lebanon 5 4 4.27 4.73 0.73 37.6 238 247 0.49 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  6  5   41.6 1
37 Luray 5 6 4.21 6.79 0.79 33.6 254 303 0.46 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  7  4   38.6 2
38 Greensville 1 8 0.12 8.88 0.88 10.4 79 390 0.17 2 AA I Southside  2  8   2.0 1
39 Buffalo Gap 2 8 0.82 9.18 1.18 19.4 133 326 0.29 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  5  6   29.6 3
40 Page 2 8 0.75 9.25 1.25 19.4 129 327 0.28 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  0  10   4.3 -2
41 Madison County 3 8 1.69 9.31 1.31 22.0 178 335 0.35 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  2  8   8.8 -1
42 Arcadia 6 5 4.56 6.44 1.44 19.5 265 301 0.47 2 A D-2 Eastern Eastern Shore-A  2  8   4.1 -4
43 James River(B) 5 6 3.55 7.45 1.45 44.0 279 367 0.43 2 A D-2 Western Pioneer  3  7   18.6 -2
44 Giles * 15 0 13.39 1.61 1.61 71.9 567 259 0.69 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers  12  1   69.0 -3
45 Richlands 9 4 7.30 5.70 1.70 59.6 377 344 0.52 2 AA IV Southwest  9  4   60.1 0
46 Nottoway 6 6 4.15 7.85 1.85 45.0 248 314 0.44 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  11  3   61.8 5
47 Gate City 8 5 6.10 6.90 1.90 57.9 364 381 0.49 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  10  3   60.2 2
48 Grundy 3 7 0.97 9.03 2.03 12.4 192 439 0.30 2 A D-2 Western Black Diamond  0  9   3.3 -3
49 Randolph-Henry 5 5 2.69 7.31 2.31 39.3 277 401 0.41 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  2  8   22.5 -3