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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2011 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Osbourn 7 4 9.35 1.65 -2.35 70.1 403 212 0.66 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  5  5   66.0 -2
2 Varina 8 3 10.32 0.68 -2.32 83.8 405 148 0.73 6 AAA Central Capital  10  2   93.6 2
3 Patrick Henry(R) 7 3 9.29 0.71 -2.29 68.0 278 107 0.72 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  8  3   73.4 1
4 Highland Springs 7 3 9.23 0.77 -2.23 76.5 276 110 0.72 6 AAA Central Capital  9  1   91.0 2
5 Frank Cox 5 5 6.86 3.14 -1.86 68.7 223 167 0.57 6 AAA Eastern Beach  7  3   83.9 2
6 Granby 4 6 5.73 4.27 -1.73 59.4 185 166 0.53 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  9  2   85.6 5
7 Western Branch 4 6 5.70 4.30 -1.70 68.3 263 237 0.53 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  9  3   92.5 5
8 L.C. Bird 10 2 11.68 0.32 -1.68 91.3 395 104 0.79 6 AAA Central Dominion  14  0   106.0 4
9 Lake Braddock 7 5 8.62 3.38 -1.62 78.7 287 203 0.59 6 AAA Northern Patriot  8  3   86.2 1
10 Salem(VB) 11 2 12.43 0.57 -1.43 97.3 508 162 0.76 6 AAA Eastern Beach  10  2   96.3 -1
11 Colonial Forge 6 5 7.36 3.64 -1.36 63.2 266 205 0.56 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  10  3   93.8 4
12 T.C. Williams 3 7 4.24 5.76 -1.24 67.1 216 242 0.47 6 AAA Northern Patriot  5  5   72.7 2
13 Thomas Dale 7 4 8.22 2.78 -1.22 77.7 227 152 0.60 6 AAA Central Central  4  6   59.6 -3
14 Bethel 7 4 8.16 2.84 -1.16 93.9 284 192 0.60 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  8  3   83.1 1
15 Mills Godwin 7 3 8.15 1.85 -1.15 64.3 348 201 0.63 6 AAA Central Colonial  7  3   73.3 0
16 Chantilly 6 5 7.00 4.00 -1.00 78.7 267 217 0.55 6 AAA Northern Concorde  8  4   89.3 2
17 Bayside 9 3 9.98 2.02 -0.98 90.2 374 207 0.64 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  3   88.2 -1
18 Stafford 5 5 5.96 4.04 -0.96 64.2 231 200 0.54 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  3  7   74.6 -2
19 Hermitage 12 1 12.90 0.10 -0.90 95.0 380 62 0.86 6 AAA Central Colonial  10  1   94.4 -2
20 West Springfield 4 6 4.88 5.12 -0.88 60.9 221 225 0.50 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  5   69.9 2
21 West Potomac 8 4 8.88 3.12 -0.88 93.6 405 275 0.60 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  5   65.6 -2
22 Deep Run 5 5 5.87 4.13 -0.87 55.1 286 251 0.53 6 AAA Central Colonial  6  4   68.0 1
23 Kecoughtan 6 4 6.81 3.19 -0.81 79.9 208 157 0.57 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   56.8 -2
24 Woodbridge 6 4 6.76 3.24 -0.76 71.8 180 137 0.57 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  6  5   74.6 0
25 Meadowbrook 9 1 9.65 0.35 -0.65 87.5 387 113 0.77 6 AAA Central Central  9  2   81.4 0
26 Landstown 8 3 8.56 2.44 -0.56 90.3 242 152 0.61 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   65.6 -4
27 Westfield 12 1 12.52 0.48 -0.52 109.9 470 141 0.77 6 AAA Northern Concorde  12  1   101.9 0
28 Centreville 13 2 13.51 1.49 -0.51 109.9 512 226 0.69 6 AAA Northern Concorde  8  4   86.7 -5
29 First Colonial 6 4 6.48 3.52 -0.48 76.4 237 189 0.56 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   71.7 -1
30 C.D. Hylton 11 1 11.38 0.62 -0.38 94.0 421 143 0.75 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  10  3   94.5 -1
31 Washington-Lee 2 8 2.37 7.63 -0.37 34.5 207 319 0.39 6 AAA Northern National  5  5   50.8 3
32 Cosby(C) 9 1 9.28 0.72 -0.28 88.5 266 103 0.72 6 AAA Central Dominion  8  2   70.0 -1
33 Ocean Lakes 8 3 8.27 2.73 -0.27 86.4 294 195 0.60 6 AAA Eastern Beach  14  1   104.3 6
34 Princess Anne 0 10 0.12 9.88 -0.12 39.8 68 352 0.16 6 AAA Eastern Beach  1  9   47.4 1
35 James River(C) 3 7 3.04 6.96 -0.04 53.4 206 280 0.42 6 AAA Central Dominion  3  7   43.7 0
36 Grassfield 10 2 10.02 1.98 -0.02 96.1 288 158 0.65 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  8  3   93.0 -2
37 Prince George 4 6 4.01 5.99 -0.01 50.4 237 275 0.46 6 AAA Central Central  3  7   37.1 -1
38 Henrico 5 5 4.90 5.10 0.10 56.4 278 282 0.50 6 AAA Central Capital  2  8   46.5 -3
39 Osbourn Park 2 8 1.86 8.14 0.14 46.5 172 297 0.37 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  5  5   66.5 3
40 Norview 6 4 5.84 4.16 0.16 75.1 255 225 0.53 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  2  8   52.8 -4
41 Woodside 10 1 9.80 1.20 0.20 101.8 327 150 0.69 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  5  5   63.8 -5
42 Herndon 2 8 1.77 8.23 0.23 57.9 201 355 0.36 6 AAA Northern Concorde  1  9   51.4 -1
43 Manchester 7 3 6.76 3.24 0.24 79.9 310 236 0.57 6 AAA Central Dominion  7  3   66.5 0
44 Oscar Smith * 14 1 13.67 1.33 0.33 112.7 561 237 0.70 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  11  2   102.8 -3
45 Battlefield 10 3 9.59 3.41 0.41 94.0 346 236 0.59 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  8  4   84.4 -2
46 South Lakes 1 9 0.55 9.45 0.45 38.9 108 309 0.26 6 AAA Northern Liberty  3  7   53.2 2
47 Hickory 6 4 5.54 4.46 0.46 76.0 247 228 0.52 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   61.8 -3
48 Franklin County 9 3 8.45 3.55 0.55 76.4 317 230 0.58 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  4  6   52.5 -5
49 James Robinson 4 7 3.45 7.55 0.55 82.5 169 226 0.43 6 AAA Northern Concorde  5  6   81.0 1
50 Forest Park 2 8 1.40 8.60 0.60 47.2 126 247 0.34 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  4  6   65.6 2
51 Gar-Field 9 3 8.38 3.62 0.62 81.1 318 233 0.58 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   51.2 -6
52 Stonewall Jackson(M) 4 6 3.36 6.64 0.64 59.3 188 242 0.44 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  9  2   85.8 5
53 Oakton 8 3 7.31 3.69 0.69 94.5 322 250 0.56 6 AAA Northern Concorde  9  5   86.7 1
54 Douglas Freeman 3 7 2.20 7.80 0.80 42.2 144 230 0.39 6 AAA Central Colonial  6  4   69.2 3
55 Clover Hill 7 3 6.19 3.81 0.81 76.6 250 209 0.54 6 AAA Central Dominion  2  8   32.0 -5
56 Annandale 1 9 0.17 9.83 0.83 52.8 78 348 0.18 6 AAA Northern Patriot  2  8   46.1 1
57 Matoaca 5 5 4.14 5.86 0.86 65.4 263 299 0.47 6 AAA Central Central  4  6   47.3 -1
58 Kellam 3 7 2.05 7.95 0.95 58.1 127 210 0.38 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  4   77.8 3
59 Riverbend 2 8 0.73 9.27 1.27 44.2 131 335 0.28 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  5   74.0 3
60 W.T. Woodson 2 8 0.59 9.41 1.41 57.0 108 302 0.26 6 AAA Northern Patriot  2  8   53.1 0
61 Tallwood 2 8 0.52 9.48 1.48 52.0 109 319 0.25 6 AAA Eastern Beach  1  9   47.6 -1
62 Fairfax 6 5 4.30 6.70 1.70 63.0 208 245 0.46 6 AAA Northern Liberty  5  5   65.2 -1
63 Gloucester 3 7 0.51 9.49 2.49 63.5 101 298 0.25 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  0  10   34.8 -3