VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2014 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 James Madison 5 5 8.21 1.79 -3.21 60.2 271 154 0.64 6 AAA Northern Liberty  9  2   84.0 4
2 Riverbend 6 5 8.69 2.31 -2.69 68.9 363 222 0.62 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  7   70.2 -1
3 Woodside 7 4 8.93 2.07 -1.93 75.0 366 213 0.63 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  7  4   81.1 0
4 Centreville 12 3 13.77 1.23 -1.77 105.0 609 249 0.71 6 AAA Northern Concorde  4  7   70.3 -8
5 Western Branch 7 4 8.63 2.37 -1.63 78.7 352 218 0.62 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  6  5   83.1 -1
6 C.D. Hylton 9 2 10.43 0.57 -1.43 90.0 415 141 0.75 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  9  3   78.8 0
7 Colonial Forge 9 4 10.30 2.70 -1.30 86.9 430 262 0.62 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  9  2   90.7 0
8 Kecoughtan 9 3 10.29 1.71 -1.29 81.7 402 207 0.66 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  5  7   65.6 -4
9 Bayside 7 4 8.23 2.77 -1.23 83.7 316 211 0.60 6 AAA Eastern Beach  7  4   76.7 0
10 James River(C) 8 5 9.18 3.82 -1.18 80.0 339 245 0.58 6 AAA Central Dominion  4  6   53.1 -4
11 Oscar Smith 12 2 13.05 0.95 -1.05 102.0 610 231 0.73 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  13  1   103.2 1
12 Varina 4 6 5.00 5.00 -1.00 64.4 256 256 0.50 6 AAA Central Capital  4  6   69.1 0
13 Hayfield 7 4 7.89 3.11 -0.89 80.9 412 292 0.59 6 AAA Northern National  6  5   70.3 -1
14 Thomas Dale 9 3 9.88 2.12 -0.88 85.8 384 217 0.64 6 AAA Central Central  9  5   80.7 0
15 South County 10 2 10.88 1.12 -0.88 93.4 594 256 0.70 6 AAA Northern Patriot  13  1   106.9 3
16 West Springfield 9 3 9.83 2.17 -0.83 90.2 371 212 0.64 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  5   78.9 -3
17 James Robinson 6 5 6.64 4.36 -0.64 77.9 298 255 0.54 6 AAA Northern Concorde  9  4   93.5 3
18 Westfield 12 2 12.63 1.37 -0.63 104.1 538 236 0.70 6 AAA Northern Concorde  14  1   108.6 2
19 Cosby(C) 7 5 7.63 4.37 -0.63 78.3 295 240 0.55 6 AAA Central Dominion  8  5   71.6 1
20 Frank Cox 9 3 9.59 2.41 -0.59 92.1 375 225 0.63 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  4   81.4 -1
21 Osbourn Park 0 10 0.58 9.42 -0.58 39.2 117 328 0.26 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  1  9   39.2 1
22 Langley 6 5 6.57 4.43 -0.57 64.6 338 292 0.54 6 AAA Northern Liberty  3  7   53.7 -3
23 Yorktown 7 4 7.39 3.61 -0.39 77.2 301 231 0.57 6 AAA Northern National  3  7   52.7 -4
24 Grassfield 4 6 4.17 5.83 -0.17 60.5 196 222 0.47 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  8  4   87.1 4
25 South Lakes 2 8 2.13 7.87 -0.13 42.4 207 336 0.38 6 AAA Northern Liberty  9  3   79.6 7
26 W.T. Woodson 2 8 2.13 7.87 -0.13 53.1 250 406 0.38 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  7   65.1 2
27 Lake Braddock 10 3 10.12 2.88 -0.12 96.3 424 266 0.61 6 AAA Northern Patriot  11  2   97.5 1
28 Battlefield 11 2 11.02 1.98 -0.02 96.1 440 233 0.65 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  9  3   79.7 -2
29 Forest Park 7 4 6.97 4.03 0.03 78.2 294 240 0.55 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  6  5   67.3 -1
30 Franklin County 1 9 0.87 9.13 0.13 39.5 155 370 0.30 6 AAA Central Western Valley  0  10   22.9 -1
31 Granby 1 9 0.86 9.14 0.14 44.6 138 331 0.29 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  5  5   66.1 4
32 Herndon 4 6 3.86 6.14 0.14 65.4 288 342 0.46 6 AAA Northern Concorde  2  8   49.6 -2
33 First Colonial 2 8 1.84 8.16 0.16 55.5 144 250 0.37 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   55.7 2
34 Osbourn 2 8 1.75 8.25 0.25 51.4 198 352 0.36 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  4  6   55.0 2
35 Ocean Lakes * 15 0 14.74 0.26 0.26 112.8 753 169 0.82 6 AAA Eastern Beach  12  1   98.7 -3
36 Annandale 6 5 5.69 5.31 0.31 73.6 322 314 0.51 6 AAA Northern Patriot  5  6   65.3 -1
37 Stafford 1 9 0.59 9.41 0.41 40.4 118 330 0.26 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  2  8   54.9 1
38 T.C. Williams 2 8 1.45 8.55 0.55 48.1 227 438 0.34 6 AAA Northern Patriot  2  8   54.2 0
39 Patriot 9 3 8.36 3.64 0.64 89.0 483 355 0.58 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  4  6   58.6 -5
40 Woodbridge 4 6 3.35 6.65 0.65 63.1 266 343 0.44 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  6  5   68.7 2
41 Gar-Field 3 7 2.11 7.89 0.89 57.4 157 256 0.38 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  0  10   37.1 -3
42 Fairfax 5 5 4.07 5.93 0.93 56.3 214 246 0.47 6 AAA Northern Liberty  1  9   35.7 -4
43 McLean 5 5 3.97 6.03 1.03 57.4 252 294 0.46 6 AAA Northern Liberty  1  9   39.5 -4
44 Landstown 4 6 2.93 7.07 1.07 67.7 210 291 0.42 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   57.8 0
45 Washington-Lee 6 5 4.68 6.32 1.32 68.3 273 305 0.47 6 AAA Northern National  5  6   61.5 -1
46 Bethel 5 6 3.67 7.33 1.33 65.2 247 319 0.44 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  5   74.7 1
47 Stonewall Jackson(M) 5 6 3.48 7.52 1.52 68.8 197 262 0.43 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  0  10   36.6 -5
48 Tallwood 3 7 1.41 8.59 1.59 61.6 165 322 0.34 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   64.0 1
49 Chantilly 6 6 4.38 7.62 1.62 79.2 228 280 0.45 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  6   72.1 0
50 West Potomac 4 6 2.13 7.87 1.87 68.3 189 307 0.38 6 AAA Northern Patriot  8  4   84.4 4
51 Patrick Henry(R) 6 5 3.66 7.34 2.34 57.0 208 269 0.44 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  5  6   57.5 -1
52 Oakton 5 6 2.44 8.56 2.56 73.0 147 234 0.39 6 AAA Northern Concorde  5  6   72.0 0