VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2014 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Smithfield 5 6 8.01 2.99 -3.01 41.1 333 231 0.59 4 AA I Bay Rivers  6  5   56.5 1
2 Loudoun County 4 7 6.36 4.64 -2.36 51.5 300 267 0.53 4 AA II Dulles  3  7   51.8 -1
3 Dominion 5 6 7.25 3.75 -2.25 60.1 244 191 0.56 4 AA II Dulles  6  4   66.6 1
4 Dinwiddie 9 3 11.18 0.82 -2.18 78.6 389 148 0.72 4 AAA Central Central  8  4   77.2 -1
5 Tabb 7 4 8.94 2.06 -1.94 53.6 358 208 0.63 4 AA I Bay Rivers  4  7   43.5 -3
6 Woodgrove 8 4 9.80 2.20 -1.80 75.7 431 248 0.63 4 AA II Dulles  11  2   87.7 3
7 Hanover 8 4 9.69 2.31 -1.69 75.9 323 190 0.63 4 AAA Central Capital  9  4   89.1 1
8 Handley 4 6 5.67 4.33 -1.67 45.6 284 257 0.52 4 AA II Northwestern  0  10   12.5 -4
9 Millbrook 3 7 4.49 5.51 -1.49 36.4 277 299 0.48 4 AA II Northwestern  8  4   72.0 5
10 Monacan 11 3 12.41 1.59 -1.41 90.6 405 189 0.68 4 AAA Central Dominion  9  2   73.0 -2
11 Sherando 9 3 10.39 1.61 -1.39 76.1 405 203 0.67 4 AA II Northwestern  9  2   81.2 0
12 Powhatan 9 2 10.33 0.67 -1.33 68.4 378 137 0.73 4 AA II Jefferson  4  6   47.2 -5
13 Kings Fork 10 3 11.09 1.91 -1.09 85.2 399 208 0.66 4 AAA Eastern Southeastern  6  6   73.8 -4
14 Liberty(Beal) 12 2 13.06 0.94 -1.06 85.1 583 220 0.73 4 AA II Evergreen  6  5   64.0 -6
15 Courtland 10 2 10.91 1.09 -0.91 76.8 472 201 0.70 4 AA I Battlefield  11  3   86.0 1
16 Phoebus 8 4 8.84 3.16 -0.84 78.7 278 190 0.59 4 AAA Eastern Peninsula  12  2   82.3 4
17 Chancellor 3 7 3.83 6.17 -0.83 44.9 269 321 0.46 4 AA I Battlefield  7  4   74.9 4
18 Eastern View 10 2 10.70 1.30 -0.70 72.4 554 254 0.69 4 AA II Evergreen  9  3   75.2 -1
19 William Fleming 8 3 8.65 2.35 -0.65 58.1 303 187 0.62 4 AAA Northwest Western Valley  4  6   53.7 -4
20 Norcom 8 3 8.60 2.40 -0.60 76.7 289 180 0.62 4 AAA Eastern Eastern  1  9   40.0 -7
21 GW-Danville 12 1 12.54 0.46 -0.54 80.3 556 163 0.77 4 AAA Northwest Western Valley  10  2   75.3 -2
22 Heritage(NN) 11 2 11.54 1.46 -0.54 86.6 346 161 0.68 4 AAA Eastern Peninsula  5  7   66.1 -6
23 Salem 14 1 14.23 0.77 -0.23 90.8 673 228 0.75 4 AA IV River Ridge  13  0   99.4 -1
24 E.C. Glass 3 7 3.07 6.93 -0.07 48.2 256 346 0.43 4 AA III Seminole  1  9   45.1 -2
25 Deep Creek 0 10 0.03 9.97 -0.03 39.8 48 391 0.11 4 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   60.7 3
26 Caroline 0 10 0.03 9.97 -0.03 22.7 59 490 0.11 4 AA I Battlefield  0  10   27.5 0
27 Park View(St) 0 10 0.03 9.97 -0.03 23.5 54 457 0.11 4 AA II Dulles  2  8   36.8 2
28 Jamestown 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 14.5 39 464 0.08 4 AA I Bay Rivers  1  8   23.7 1
29 Grafton 6 5 6.00 5.00 -0.00 50.8 260 243 0.52 4 AA I Bay Rivers  7  4   56.9 1
30 J.R. Tucker 3 7 2.93 7.07 0.07 45.4 174 241 0.42 4 AAA Central Colonial  5  5   64.2 2
31 Louisa 7 4 6.93 4.07 0.07 60.6 341 280 0.55 4 AA II Jefferson  6  5   69.3 -1
32 Lake Taylor * 15 0 14.77 0.23 0.23 104.4 623 134 0.82 4 AAA Eastern Eastern  14  1   95.6 -1
33 Denbigh 3 7 2.70 7.30 0.30 49.9 204 295 0.41 4 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  7   59.0 1
34 Glen Allen 1 9 0.65 9.35 0.35 37.1 137 368 0.27 4 AAA Central Capital  1  9   35.7 0
35 Fluvanna 1 9 0.57 9.43 0.43 27.6 156 440 0.26 4 AA II Jefferson  0  10   21.8 -1
36 Nansemond River 5 6 4.47 6.53 0.53 66.5 225 259 0.46 4 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  4   81.2 2
37 Pulaski County 5 6 4.38 6.62 0.62 55.4 253 295 0.46 4 AA IV River Ridge  9  2   72.5 4
38 Bassett 3 7 2.22 7.78 0.78 34.9 230 366 0.39 4 AA IV Piedmont  4  6   46.1 1
39 Amherst County 3 7 2.17 7.83 0.83 50.4 222 357 0.38 4 AA III Seminole  7  5   79.2 4
40 King George 4 6 3.08 6.92 0.92 44.2 258 348 0.43 4 AA I Battlefield  5  6   56.2 1
41 Carroll County 1 9 0.08 9.92 0.92 28.5 58 341 0.15 4 AA IV Southwest  1  8   16.0 0
42 Jefferson Forest 12 1 11.02 1.98 0.98 82.2 625 331 0.65 4 AA III Seminole  12  1   96.0 0
43 Heritage(Le) 3 7 1.99 8.01 1.01 52.5 203 340 0.37 4 AA II Dulles  6  5   63.2 3
44 Charlottesville 4 7 2.98 8.02 1.02 44.7 192 277 0.41 4 AA II Jefferson  3  7   41.6 -1
45 Harrisonburg 2 8 0.72 9.28 1.28 19.6 166 429 0.28 4 AA III Valley  7  3   54.6 5
46 Lakeland 3 8 1.70 9.30 1.30 59.0 167 313 0.35 4 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  9   51.9 0
47 Midlothian 2 8 0.47 9.53 1.53 52.4 103 315 0.25 4 AAA Central Dominion  2  8   38.5 0
48 Churchland 4 7 2.46 8.54 1.54 55.4 176 279 0.39 4 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  7   55.3 0
49 Booker T. Washington 6 6 4.46 7.54 1.54 69.7 289 351 0.45 4 AAA Eastern Eastern  3  7   39.3 -3
50 Woodrow Wilson 3 7 1.15 8.85 1.85 60.3 126 268 0.32 4 AAA Eastern Eastern  3  7   53.4 0
51 James Wood 5 6 2.79 8.21 2.21 50.0 193 288 0.40 4 AA II Northwestern  5  5   44.3 0
52 Fauquier 5 6 1.84 9.16 3.16 51.3 180 326 0.36 4 AA II Evergreen  5  5   52.1 0