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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2008 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 King William 6 5 8.62 2.38 -2.62 35.7 293 182 0.62 2 A A Tidewater  9  3   54.5 3
2 Fort Chiswell 6 4 8.57 1.43 -2.57 24.7 231 119 0.66 2 A C Mtn. Empire  11  2   41.1 5
3 Wilson Memorial 5 5 6.86 3.14 -1.86 23.5 215 161 0.57 2 A B Shenandoah  5  5   36.0 0
4 James River(B) 4 5 5.85 3.15 -1.85 15.7 190 151 0.56 2 A C Pioneer  5  6   27.3 1
5 George Wythe(W) 6 5 7.67 3.33 -1.67 37.6 308 226 0.58 2 A C Hogoheegee  7  4   38.7 1
6 Honaker 4 6 5.49 4.51 -1.49 22.8 215 200 0.52 2 A D Black Diamond  4  6   18.3 0
7 Radford 7 3 8.45 1.55 -1.45 39.4 296 158 0.65 2 A C Three Rivers  11  4   50.8 4
8 Gate City 9 3 9.92 2.08 -0.92 50.2 305 171 0.64 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  9  1   64.9 0
9 Goochland 6 5 6.70 4.30 -0.70 42.6 237 201 0.54 2 A B James River  10  2   71.7 4
10 Chilhowie 10 2 10.64 1.36 -0.64 46.2 386 180 0.68 2 A C Hogoheegee  7  4   35.1 -3
11 Lebanon 9 4 9.59 3.41 -0.59 47.0 292 199 0.59 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  8  5   44.0 -1
12 Lee 4 6 4.59 5.41 -0.59 31.6 190 202 0.48 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  2  8   20.9 -2
13 John Battle 0 10 0.53 9.47 -0.53 -8.8 129 374 0.26 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  3  7   10.8 3
14 Washington & Lee 9 3 9.49 2.51 -0.49 55.4 332 203 0.62 2 A A Northern Neck  8  3   48.2 -1
15 Clarke County 9 3 9.48 2.52 -0.48 51.2 315 193 0.62 2 A B Bull Run  10  1   59.3 1
16 Madison County 8 2 8.46 1.54 -0.46 44.4 269 143 0.65 2 A B Bull Run  9  2   53.8 1
17 Essex 12 1 12.41 0.59 -0.41 60.5 574 186 0.76 2 A A Northern Neck  14  0   67.5 2
18 Grayson County 0 10 0.41 9.59 -0.41 -11.7 118 381 0.24 2 A C Mtn. Empire  3  7   13.2 3
19 Virginia 3 7 3.32 6.68 -0.32 12.8 173 224 0.44 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  6  4   34.8 3
20 Appomattox 8 3 8.32 2.68 -0.32 50.9 350 230 0.60 2 A B Dogwood  9  3   62.4 1
21 Randolph-Henry 3 7 3.31 6.69 -0.31 19.4 134 174 0.44 2 A B James River  6  4   36.9 3
22 Giles 6 5 6.28 4.72 -0.28 37.6 288 259 0.53 2 A C Three Rivers  6  5   39.1 0
23 Arcadia 0 10 0.16 9.84 -0.16 -3.5 80 366 0.18 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  0  10   -16.5 0
24 George Mason 1 9 1.13 8.87 -0.13 3.3 128 275 0.32 2 A B Bull Run  7  3   47.0 6
25 Dan River 4 6 4.04 5.96 -0.04 39.6 199 230 0.46 2 A B Dogwood  6  4   52.6 2
26 Gretna * 13 1 13.02 0.98 -0.02 71.0 573 220 0.72 2 A B Dogwood  10  3   66.3 -3
27 Windsor 6 4 5.83 4.17 0.17 36.1 222 196 0.53 2 A A Tri-Rivers  4  6   9.7 -2
28 Auburn 2 8 1.80 8.20 0.20 2.5 184 323 0.36 2 A C Three Rivers  1  9   -3.6 -1
29 Middlesex 1 9 0.78 9.22 0.22 4.9 152 379 0.29 2 A A Tidewater  5  5   29.7 4
30 Lancaster 5 5 4.38 5.62 0.62 29.3 226 248 0.48 2 A A Northern Neck  8  2   47.6 3
31 Patrick Henry(GS) 4 6 3.34 6.66 0.66 12.9 203 262 0.44 2 A C Hogoheegee  2  8   1.3 -2
32 Glenvar 6 4 4.97 5.03 1.03 23.1 229 230 0.50 2 A C Three Rivers  7  3   35.0 1
33 Strasburg 2 8 0.75 9.25 1.25 9.0 105 266 0.28 2 A B Bull Run  1  9   10.9 -1
34 Floyd County 13 1 11.62 2.38 1.38 63.4 421 234 0.64 2 A C Three Rivers  3  7   28.0 -10
35 Nandua 3 7 1.28 8.72 1.72 14.4 154 313 0.33 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  3  8   7.1 0
36 Buckingham County 5 5 3.27 6.73 1.73 33.2 134 175 0.43 2 A B James River  10  1   62.9 5
37 Chatham 2 8 0.26 9.74 1.74 22.5 101 385 0.21 2 A B Dogwood  1  9   21.7 -1
38 Northampton 4 6 1.77 8.23 2.23 24.3 166 293 0.36 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  3  7   9.5 -1