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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2000 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Salem * 10 4 13.05 0.95 -3.05 87.0 343 130 0.73 4 AA IV River Ridge  8  4   74.7 -2
2 Martinsville 8 4 10.67 1.33 -2.67 53.3 262 121 0.68 4 AA IV Piedmont  9  2   60.7 1
3 Chancellor 6 4 8.42 1.58 -2.42 62.0 212 114 0.65 4 AA I Battlefield  8  3   66.2 2
4 Spotswood 8 3 10.39 0.61 -2.39 72.4 280 98 0.74 4 AA II Valley  6  5   62.7 -2
5 Amherst County 4 6 6.00 4.00 -2.00 53.3 180 155 0.54 4 AA III Seminole  5  5   52.1 1
6 Jefferson Forest 2 8 3.73 6.27 -1.73 42.0 155 188 0.45 4 AA III Seminole  5  5   51.0 3
7 Lafayette 10 2 11.71 0.29 -1.71 77.1 442 112 0.80 4 AA I Bay Rivers  11  2   88.5 1
8 Harrisonburg 7 3 8.64 1.36 -1.64 71.3 252 127 0.66 4 AA II Valley  11  3   80.2 4
9 Powhatan 5 5 6.55 3.45 -1.55 40.6 250 197 0.56 4 AA I Southside  4  6   23.4 -1
10 Caroline 6 4 7.51 2.49 -1.51 61.5 259 172 0.60 4 AA I Battlefield  3  6   40.8 -3
11 Carroll County 7 3 8.50 1.50 -1.50 48.5 243 128 0.65 4 AA IV Southwest  0  10   16.5 -7
12 Grafton 6 4 7.48 2.52 -1.48 58.2 235 157 0.60 4 AA I Bay Rivers  4  6   54.2 -2
13 Park View(St) 12 2 13.38 0.62 -1.38 92.2 468 150 0.76 4 AA II Northwestern  9  1   83.2 -3
14 William Byrd 4 6 5.26 4.74 -1.26 41.9 263 253 0.51 4 AA III Blue Ridge  6  5   59.0 2
15 Liberty(Beal) 10 2 11.20 0.80 -1.20 89.2 279 105 0.73 4 AA II Northwestern  11  1   88.1 1
16 Loudoun County 5 6 6.15 4.85 -1.15 57.1 215 197 0.52 4 AA II Dulles  3  4   55.3 -2
17 Tunstall 7 4 8.05 2.95 -1.05 46.6 283 195 0.59 4 AA IV Piedmont  6  4   41.7 -1
18 Marion 9 2 9.96 1.04 -0.96 56.8 192 83 0.70 4 AA IV Highlands  10  3   60.8 1
19 Magna Vista 11 2 11.83 1.17 -0.83 64.9 455 193 0.70 4 AA IV Piedmont  9  3   60.7 -2
20 Jamestown 0 10 0.82 9.18 -0.82 27.4 152 372 0.29 4 AA I Bay Rivers  1  9   36.7 1
21 Rockbridge County 3 7 3.73 6.27 -0.73 37.4 259 314 0.45 4 AA II Valley  6  4   58.7 3
22 Northside 10 2 10.71 1.29 -0.71 84.0 269 123 0.69 4 AA III Blue Ridge  5  5   61.1 -5
23 Louisa 4 6 4.66 5.34 -0.66 33.9 194 204 0.49 4 AA II Jefferson  5  5   35.2 1
24 Orange 9 2 9.25 1.75 -0.25 64.4 280 151 0.65 4 AA II Jefferson  5  5   42.1 -4
25 Broad Run 5 5 5.07 4.93 -0.07 61.0 192 190 0.50 4 AA II Northwestern  1  8   28.2 -4
26 King George 9 2 9.03 1.97 -0.03 70.8 336 191 0.64 4 AA I Battlefield  8  4   70.1 -1
27 Charlottesville 1 9 0.85 9.15 0.15 18.8 107 258 0.29 4 AA II Jefferson  6  5   47.9 5
28 James Wood 2 8 1.84 8.16 0.16 48.0 167 290 0.37 4 AA II Commonwealth  0  7   20.3 -2
29 Lord Botetourt 9 2 8.84 2.16 0.16 69.7 367 218 0.63 4 AA III Blue Ridge  4  6   52.3 -5
30 Bassett 1 9 0.82 9.18 0.18 13.0 149 365 0.29 4 AA IV Piedmont  0  10   11.7 -1
31 Heritage(Lyn) 4 6 3.73 6.27 0.27 49.4 151 183 0.45 4 AA III Seminole  3  7   34.7 -1
32 Lee 2 7 1.69 7.31 0.31 18.8 135 232 0.37 4 AA IV Highlands  1  7   21.9 -1
33 Courtland 11 2 10.46 2.54 0.54 81.5 390 231 0.63 4 AA I Battlefield  5  5   55.5 -6
34 Staunton River 3 7 2.32 7.68 0.68 35.5 199 310 0.39 4 AA III Seminole  1  9   19.8 -2
35 Blacksburg 4 7 3.30 7.70 0.70 51.9 171 234 0.42 4 AA III River Ridge  8  3   74.7 4
36 Broadway 4 6 3.15 6.85 0.85 46.9 159 212 0.43 4 AA II Valley  5  5   54.6 1
37 Smithfield 7 4 5.80 5.20 1.20 63.4 253 243 0.51 4 AA I Bay Rivers  1  9   34.9 -6
38 Spotsylvania 5 5 3.77 6.23 1.23 57.3 185 223 0.45 4 AA I Battlefield  4  6   40.1 -1
39 Abingdon 4 6 2.74 7.26 1.26 28.6 131 188 0.41 4 AA IV Highlands  7  3   43.6 3
40 Warren County 2 8 0.28 9.72 1.72 48.4 86 321 0.21 4 AA II Northwestern  3  7   46.5 1
41 Sherando 4 7 1.86 9.14 2.14 62.6 146 263 0.36 4 AA II Commonwealth  3  4   50.5 -1
42 Tabb 3 7 0.83 9.17 2.17 40.6 135 329 0.29 4 AA I Bay Rivers  4  6   54.8 1