VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2009 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Chantilly 5 6 7.69 3.31 -2.69 72.9 280 205 0.58 6 AAA Northern Concorde  10  3   98.7 5
2 C.D. Hylton 5 5 7.40 2.60 -2.40 73.0 190 129 0.60 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  10  1   102.1 5
3 Western Branch 4 6 6.14 3.86 -2.14 65.3 177 149 0.54 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  2  8   49.1 -2
4 Landstown 6 5 7.98 3.02 -1.98 82.4 182 127 0.59 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  5   75.8 0
5 Osbourn Park 10 3 11.51 1.49 -1.51 96.6 286 134 0.68 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  4  6   74.3 -6
6 Loudoun Valley 6 4 7.45 2.55 -1.45 81.7 229 154 0.60 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  8  4   80.7 2
7 Grassfield 9 3 10.44 1.56 -1.44 90.2 269 133 0.67 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  8  3   81.3 -1
8 Salem(VB) 5 5 6.37 3.63 -1.37 73.1 181 147 0.55 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  4   87.1 3
9 Westfield 6 5 7.32 3.68 -1.32 83.1 240 186 0.56 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  5   92.3 0
10 Hermitage 10 2 11.32 0.68 -1.32 88.6 300 106 0.74 6 AAA Central Colonial  13  1   102.7 3
11 Highland Springs 9 2 10.10 0.90 -1.10 84.4 319 130 0.71 6 AAA Central Capital  7  4   74.7 -2
12 Woodside 11 2 12.09 0.91 -1.09 99.4 501 192 0.72 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  9  3   94.1 -2
13 Franklin County 9 3 9.96 2.04 -0.96 83.2 342 190 0.64 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  9  3   77.8 0
14 Manchester 6 4 6.89 3.11 -0.89 68.6 317 236 0.57 6 AAA Central Dominion  7  3   68.1 1
15 Centreville 3 7 3.72 6.28 -0.72 54.5 219 266 0.45 6 AAA Northern Concorde  9  3   87.3 6
16 Varina 8 2 8.71 1.29 -0.71 83.9 335 165 0.67 6 AAA Central Capital  6  5   80.5 -2
17 Deep Run 5 5 5.71 4.29 -0.71 57.6 200 180 0.53 6 AAA Central Colonial  6  4   64.4 1
18 Colonial Forge 9 2 9.69 1.31 -0.69 93.4 460 219 0.68 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  11  1   98.4 2
19 Fairfax 6 5 6.68 4.32 -0.68 70.4 249 212 0.54 6 AAA Northern Liberty  6  5   75.5 0
20 Lake Braddock 12 3 12.67 2.33 -0.67 104.2 472 252 0.65 6 AAA Northern Patriot  12  2   103.8 0
21 James River(C) 6 4 6.67 3.33 -0.67 63.0 238 184 0.56 6 AAA Central Dominion  4  6   49.4 -2
22 Oscar Smith 13 1 13.55 0.45 -0.55 102.9 511 145 0.78 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  11  2   96.8 -2
23 Cosby(C) 7 3 7.53 2.47 -0.53 71.0 272 180 0.60 6 AAA Central Dominion  5  5   57.0 -2
24 Gar-Field 6 4 6.51 3.49 -0.51 79.3 179 142 0.56 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  6  5   82.0 0
25 Gloucester 0 10 0.44 9.56 -0.44 41.5 124 388 0.24 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   58.1 2
26 L.C. Bird 10 1 10.36 0.64 -0.36 90.9 303 108 0.74 6 AAA Central Dominion  11  1   86.7 1
27 T.C. Williams 5 5 5.34 4.66 -0.34 76.9 206 196 0.51 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  4   80.1 1
28 Langley 4 6 4.33 5.67 -0.33 59.0 201 222 0.48 6 AAA Northern Liberty  6  5   77.2 2
29 Thomas Dale * 12 2 12.30 1.70 -0.30 102.0 395 190 0.68 6 AAA Central Central  5  5   68.5 -7
30 Frank Cox 7 4 7.29 3.71 -0.29 82.1 267 208 0.56 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  5   71.7 -1
31 Lee-Davis 6 4 6.25 3.75 -0.25 70.3 308 255 0.55 6 AAA Central Capital  6  4   76.3 0
32 James Robinson 10 2 10.18 1.82 -0.18 95.4 346 183 0.65 6 AAA Northern Concorde  9  3   96.8 -1
33 West Springfield 4 6 4.16 5.84 -0.16 73.7 261 296 0.47 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   62.8 -1
34 Meadowbrook 9 1 9.15 0.85 -0.15 93.6 388 161 0.71 6 AAA Central Central  6  4   71.3 -3
35 Riverbend 8 3 8.12 2.88 -0.12 83.0 326 222 0.59 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  2  8   46.6 -6
36 Bayside 10 2 10.10 1.90 -0.10 96.4 288 155 0.65 6 AAA Eastern Beach  13  1   102.5 3
37 Kempsville 5 6 5.10 5.90 -0.10 72.9 200 211 0.49 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   64.7 -1
38 Oakton 5 6 5.09 5.91 -0.09 74.0 211 223 0.49 6 AAA Northern Concorde  7  4   85.9 2
39 Prince George 1 9 1.09 8.91 -0.09 35.1 168 366 0.31 6 AAA Central Central  3  7   44.2 2
40 Matoaca 5 5 5.00 5.00 0.00 68.4 232 232 0.50 6 AAA Central Central  3  7   56.7 -2
41 W.T. Woodson 11 2 10.96 2.04 0.04 102.8 399 214 0.65 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   64.2 -8
42 Forest Park 1 9 0.87 9.13 0.13 50.0 104 248 0.30 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  2  8   60.1 1
43 Woodbridge 10 1 9.87 1.13 0.13 99.6 341 153 0.69 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  6  5   76.4 -4
44 West Potomac 2 8 1.81 8.19 0.19 57.2 174 304 0.36 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  4   80.8 4
45 Battlefield 12 1 11.70 1.30 0.30 108.9 363 161 0.69 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  13  2   109.0 1
46 Herndon 4 6 3.64 6.36 0.36 58.7 217 267 0.45 6 AAA Northern Concorde  1  9   53.6 -3
47 J.R. Tucker 8 2 7.62 2.38 0.38 81.1 257 167 0.61 6 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   40.4 -6
48 Tallwood 1 9 0.58 9.42 0.42 48.8 92 258 0.26 6 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   58.6 2
49 Henrico 2 8 1.43 8.57 0.57 43.4 138 268 0.34 6 AAA Central Capital  5  5   65.2 3
50 Ocean Lakes 10 0 9.36 0.64 0.64 104.3 299 111 0.73 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  3   87.1 -2
51 First Colonial 4 6 3.33 6.67 0.67 67.0 150 194 0.44 6 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   59.7 -1
52 Annandale 4 6 3.17 6.83 0.83 68.9 192 255 0.43 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  4   76.7 2
53 Menchville 2 8 1.12 8.88 0.88 52.7 179 386 0.32 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   57.9 0
54 Stonewall Jackson(M) 3 7 2.09 7.91 0.91 64.5 141 231 0.38 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  2  8   62.2 -1
55 Granby 2 8 1.08 8.92 0.92 52.7 135 295 0.31 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  3  7   58.0 1
56 South County 7 5 6.04 5.96 0.96 85.5 204 203 0.50 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   61.7 -4
57 Norview 3 7 1.88 8.12 1.12 60.5 145 249 0.37 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  0  10   39.9 -3
58 Kecoughtan 4 6 2.49 7.51 1.51 69.5 176 265 0.40 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   72.6 0
59 Patrick Henry(R) 3 7 1.15 8.85 1.85 50.8 142 302 0.32 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  6  4   60.6 3
60 Mills Godwin 5 5 2.87 7.13 2.13 62.5 132 185 0.42 6 AAA Central Colonial  5  5   57.7 0
61 Hickory 3 7 0.74 9.26 2.26 61.0 112 285 0.28 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  6  4   69.5 3
62 Maury 6 5 3.68 7.32 2.32 75.6 145 187 0.44 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  2  8   56.7 -4