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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2015 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Auburn 6 5 8.56 2.44 -2.56 36.2 309 194 0.61 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers  3  7   20.3 -3
2 Radford 9 4 11.54 1.46 -2.54 49.8 516 240 0.68 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers  5  6   37.6 -4
3 Castlewood 3 7 5.31 4.69 -2.31 3.4 243 232 0.51 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  6  5   24.1 3
4 Galax * 11 4 12.85 2.15 -1.85 60.6 562 290 0.66 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire  11  3   63.7 0
5 Honaker 8 4 9.75 2.25 -1.75 35.9 365 212 0.63 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond  3  8   16.7 -5
6 Rural Retreat 8 4 9.52 2.48 -1.52 38.0 390 237 0.62 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  4  7   28.6 -4
7 Parry McCluer 7 4 8.44 2.56 -1.44 38.3 241 155 0.61 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  11  2   53.1 4
8 Altavista 5 7 6.09 5.91 -1.09 40.4 261 258 0.50 1 A D-1 Eastern Dogwood  9  4   54.9 4
9 Lancaster 5 6 6.04 4.96 -1.04 8.8 254 236 0.52 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  3  6   6.2 -2
10 Sussex Central 8 3 8.99 2.01 -0.99 52.8 322 185 0.64 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  13  1   66.1 5
11 Northumberland 4 5 4.89 4.11 -0.89 9.0 238 223 0.52 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  7  4   20.0 3
12 Rappahannock 6 4 6.84 3.16 -0.84 22.5 217 163 0.57 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  1  7   -6.5 -5
13 Middlesex 7 4 7.77 3.23 -0.77 9.0 364 263 0.58 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  4  6   -5.3 -3
14 Twin Valley 5 5 5.72 4.28 -0.72 5.4 305 274 0.53 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond  6  5   15.2 1
15 Essex 11 2 11.58 1.42 -0.58 61.4 461 212 0.68 1 A D-2 Eastern Northern Neck  6  6   38.5 -5
16 Riverheads 13 1 13.57 0.43 -0.57 68.9 562 157 0.78 1 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  13  1   71.8 0
17 Colonial Beach 3 8 3.43 7.57 -0.43 16.1 250 335 0.43 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  9  3   41.9 6
18 Eastern Montgomery 0 10 0.42 9.58 -0.42 5.4 152 482 0.24 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers  1  9   2.8 1
19 Franklin 7 3 7.41 2.59 -0.41 35.0 354 240 0.60 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  7  4   42.7 0
20 Holston 0 10 0.36 9.64 -0.36 -9.4 108 364 0.23 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  1  9   9.1 1
21 West Point 0 10 0.31 9.69 -0.31 -30.6 104 370 0.22 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  4  6   -6.4 4
22 Northwood 6 5 6.31 4.69 -0.31 22.6 258 231 0.53 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  1  9   4.9 -5
23 Fort Chiswell 0 10 0.31 9.69 -0.31 12.6 125 448 0.22 1 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire  9  4   52.4 9
24 J.I. Burton 11 2 11.22 1.78 -0.22 44.6 479 242 0.66 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  8  4   35.9 -3
25 Rye Cove 0 9 0.20 8.80 -0.20 -20.3 114 467 0.20 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  0  9   -14.3 0
26 Chilhowie 2 8 1.98 8.02 0.02 5.6 193 324 0.37 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  9  3   48.2 7
27 George Wythe(W) 12 2 11.95 2.05 0.05 54.2 542 282 0.66 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  12  2   62.6 0
28 Lunenburg 9 4 8.88 4.12 0.12 47.9 456 343 0.57 1 A D-1 Eastern James River  8  3   43.8 -1
29 Hurley 9 2 8.80 2.20 0.20 34.1 399 239 0.63 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond  11  1   49.8 2
30 Northampton 3 7 2.79 7.21 0.21 -22.1 263 374 0.41 1 A D-1 Eastern Eastern Shore-A  4  6   0.2 1
31 Patrick Henry(GS) 8 3 7.65 3.35 0.35 29.4 433 319 0.58 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  8  4   42.0 0
32 Charles City 3 6 2.63 6.37 0.37 -7.1 214 297 0.42 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  6  5   20.2 3
33 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 1 9 0.51 9.49 0.49 11.0 126 372 0.25 1 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  0  10   17.7 -1
34 Thomas Walker 3 7 2.43 7.57 0.57 -3.1 222 338 0.40 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  2  8   -6.6 -1
35 Craig County 1 9 0.30 9.70 0.70 9.3 124 447 0.22 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  0  10   -7.3 -1
36 Mathews 4 6 3.28 6.72 0.72 -7.7 194 253 0.43 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  1  7   -18.6 -3
37 Eastside 2 8 1.17 8.83 0.83 3.1 201 425 0.32 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  2  8   5.6 0
38 King & Queen 1 7 0.08 7.92 0.92 -30.1 70 378 0.16 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  0  8   -30.1 -1
39 William Campbell 8 4 6.86 5.14 1.14 51.0 424 381 0.53 1 A D-1 Eastern Dogwood  5  6   38.1 -3
40 Surry 2 6 0.76 7.24 1.24 -0.9 106 244 0.30 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  4  7   16.2 2
41 Cumberland 2 7 0.54 8.46 1.46 0.3 109 303 0.26 1 A D-1 Eastern James River  1  8   -9.2 -1
42 Narrows 5 6 3.48 7.52 1.52 31.5 296 394 0.43 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire  6  5   34.1 1
43 Luray 7 5 5.37 6.63 1.63 38.2 297 321 0.48 1 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  7  5   46.1 0
44 Twin Springs 5 6 3.32 7.68 1.68 11.6 211 288 0.42 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  5  6   20.7 0
45 Windsor 2 8 0.27 9.73 1.73 1.1 112 424 0.21 1 A D-2 Eastern Tri-Rivers  0  8   -0.1 -2
46 Bath County 3 7 1.01 8.99 1.99 26.3 142 319 0.31 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  2  7   13.0 -1
47 Covington 4 7 1.99 9.01 2.01 31.3 206 360 0.36 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  5  5   30.9 1
48 Bland(RG) 8 4 5.61 6.39 2.39 41.2 362 380 0.49 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire  4  6   19.5 -4