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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2017 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Nottoway 7 4 9.42 1.58 -2.42 37.0 329 170 0.66 2 A 2A James River
2 Richlands 4 7 6.36 4.64 -2.36 58.0 208 185 0.53 2 AA 2D Southwest
3 Stuarts Draft 5 5 7.33 2.67 -2.33 43.4 295 203 0.59 2 A 2B Shenandoah
4 Poquoson 10 4 12.28 1.72 -2.28 68.1 346 167 0.67 2 AA 2A Bay Rivers
5 Buffalo Gap 6 5 7.96 3.04 -1.96 46.2 393 275 0.59 2 A 2B Shenandoah
6 John Battle 6 4 7.60 2.40 -1.60 52.9 388 253 0.61 2 A 2D Mountain
7 Glenvar 11 2 12.46 0.54 -1.46 67.5 422 132 0.76 2 A 2C Three Rivers
8 Greensville 8 3 9.42 1.58 -1.42 44.8 409 211 0.66 2 A 2A Tri-Rivers
9 Floyd County 9 3 10.39 1.61 -1.39 56.1 291 146 0.67 2 A 2C Three Rivers
10 Radford 2 8 3.38 6.62 -1.38 30.9 159 204 0.44 2 A 2C Three Rivers
11 Lee 5 5 6.31 3.69 -1.31 48.5 277 227 0.55 2 A 2D Shenandoah
12 Grayson County 7 5 7.99 4.01 -0.99 48.5 320 248 0.56 2 A 2D Mtn. Empire
13 Giles 9 3 9.94 2.06 -0.94 67.8 442 247 0.64 2 A 2C Three Rivers
14 Virginia 7 4 7.87 3.13 -0.87 65.0 270 192 0.58 2 A 2D Southwest
15 Clarke County 10 2 10.82 1.18 -0.82 63.7 459 202 0.69 2 A 2B Bull Run
16 Central(W) 11 1 11.75 0.25 -0.75 65.2 582 140 0.81 2 A 2B Bull Run
17 Fort Chiswell 7 4 7.69 3.31 -0.69 48.7 302 221 0.58 2 A 2C Mtn. Empire
18 Graham 10 2 10.58 1.42 -0.58 80.9 423 201 0.68 2 A 2D Southwest
19 Goochland 12 1 12.51 0.49 -0.51 57.1 508 153 0.77 2 A 2A James River
20 Arcadia 2 7 2.45 6.55 -0.45 -7.8 250 360 0.41 2 A 2A Eastern Shore-A
21 Gretna 7 3 7.41 2.59 -0.41 52.6 267 181 0.60 2 A 2C Dogwood
22 Union 13 1 13.40 0.60 -0.40 83.8 482 153 0.76 2 A 2D Mountain
23 Ridgeview 9 2 9.36 1.64 -0.36 63.9 337 177 0.66 2 A 2D Mountain
24 King William 4 6 4.32 5.68 -0.32 16.5 292 323 0.47 2 A 2A Tidewater
25 Martinsville 5 6 5.20 5.80 -0.20 50.2 338 352 0.49 2 A 2C Piedmont
26 Buckingham County 4 4 4.10 3.90 -0.10 25.4 212 208 0.50 2 A 2C James River
27 Marion 9 3 9.07 2.93 -0.07 65.8 363 239 0.60 2 A 2D Southwest
28 Amelia County 6 3 6.00 3.00 -0.00 37.0 295 228 0.56 2 A 2A James River
29 East Rockingham 7 4 6.99 4.01 0.01 55.4 327 266 0.55 2 A 2B Shenandoah
30 Luray 11 2 10.98 2.02 0.02 64.0 487 260 0.65 2 A 2B Shenandoah
31 Bluestone 3 6 2.97 6.03 0.03 16.8 214 278 0.43 2 A 2A James River
32 R.E. Lee(ST) 13 2 12.97 2.03 0.03 73.7 644 324 0.67 2 A 2B Shenandoah
33 Nelson County 3 7 2.94 7.06 0.06 -6.1 274 379 0.42 2 A 2C Dogwood
34 Randolph-Henry 1 8 0.86 8.14 0.14 1.4 173 398 0.30 2 A 2A James River
35 Brunswick 3 5 2.66 5.34 0.34 24.9 208 269 0.44 2 A 2A Tri-Rivers
36 George Mason 6 5 5.62 5.38 0.38 38.7 313 308 0.50 2 A 2B Bull Run
37 Page 3 7 2.52 7.48 0.48 25.4 250 374 0.40 2 A 2B Shenandoah
38 Dan River 5 6 4.46 6.54 0.54 45.2 244 281 0.46 2 A 2C Dogwood
39 Appomattox * 14 1 13.44 1.56 0.56 84.2 666 300 0.69 2 A 2C Dogwood
40 Tazewell 3 7 2.36 7.64 0.64 34.1 229 354 0.39 2 A 2D Southwest
41 Strasburg 5 6 4.31 6.69 0.69 31.0 276 325 0.46 2 A 2B Bull Run
42 Gate City 1 9 0.30 9.70 0.70 35.3 103 373 0.22 2 A 2D Mountain
43 Prince Edward 4 6 3.09 6.91 0.91 16.8 305 411 0.43 2 A 2A James River
44 Wise Central 2 8 1.05 8.95 0.95 35.2 153 338 0.31 2 A 2D Mountain
45 Madison County 2 8 0.93 9.07 1.07 14.7 174 404 0.30 2 A 2B Bull Run
46 Chatham 3 7 1.78 8.22 1.22 26.0 245 432 0.36 2 A 2C Dogwood
47 James River(B) 3 7 1.58 8.42 1.42 21.6 197 366 0.35 2 A 2C Pioneer
48 Nandua 4 6 2.46 7.54 1.54 -7.8 262 397 0.40 2 A 2A Eastern Shore-A
49 Wilson Memorial 3 7 1.38 8.62 1.62 31.2 189 373 0.34 2 A 2B Shenandoah
50 Lebanon 2 8 0.27 9.73 1.73 26.6 102 387 0.21 2 A 2D Southwest
51 Bruton 2 9 0.26 10.74 1.74 34.5 120 475 0.20 2 A 2A Bay Rivers