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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2017 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Southampton 5 4 7.73 1.27 -2.73 44.8 297 152 0.66 3 AA 3A Tri-Rivers  3  5   20.7 -2
2 Hopewell * 11 4 13.61 1.39 -2.61 80.8 438 188 0.70 3 AA 3A Central  9  2   80.0 -2
3 Abingdon 6 5 8.16 2.84 -2.16 57.0 272 184 0.60 3 AA 3D Mountain  9  3   69.1 3
4 New Kent 4 6 6.04 3.96 -2.04 48.3 248 212 0.54 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers  4  5   54.3 0
5 Western Albemarle 2 8 3.92 6.08 -1.92 42.1 215 253 0.46 3 AA 3C Jefferson  9  3   66.8 7
6 Warren County 7 5 8.49 3.51 -1.49 46.8 308 222 0.58 3 AA 3B Northwestern  1  9   19.9 -6
7 Monticello 9 3 10.36 1.64 -1.36 70.1 510 258 0.66 3 AA 3C Jefferson  2  8   28.4 -7
8 Booker T. Washington 4 6 5.20 4.80 -1.20 50.2 238 231 0.51 3 AA 3A Eastern  6  5   74.0 2
9 Heritage(Lyn) 13 2 14.04 0.96 -1.04 83.0 684 253 0.73 3 AA 3C Seminole  14  1   93.0 1
10 John Marshall 1 9 1.89 8.11 -0.89 26.4 220 377 0.37 3 AA 3B Colonial  4  6   45.1 3
11 Phoebus 10 1 10.86 0.14 -0.86 77.9 349 69 0.83 3 AA 3A Peninsula  11  2   83.0 1
12 Rockbridge County 6 5 6.75 4.25 -0.75 46.9 395 333 0.54 3 AA 3C Valley  6  5   46.8 0
13 Lord Botetourt 10 3 10.64 2.36 -0.64 78.0 398 228 0.64 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge  10  3   86.5 0
14 Christiansburg 0 10 0.63 9.37 -0.63 31.6 153 417 0.27 3 AA 3D River Ridge  2  9   39.7 2
15 Waynesboro 4 7 4.52 6.48 -0.52 38.3 274 313 0.47 3 AA 3C Valley  0  10   12.4 -4
16 Tunstall 3 7 3.48 6.52 -0.48 34.1 255 322 0.44 3 AA 3D Piedmont  7  5   55.9 4
17 William Monroe 2 8 2.44 7.56 -0.44 15.1 206 313 0.40 3 AA 3B Northwestern  3  7   26.3 1
18 Magna Vista 8 4 8.41 3.59 -0.41 62.4 318 232 0.58 3 AA 3D Piedmont  5  6   49.0 -3
19 Park View(SH) 4 4 4.31 3.69 -0.31 31.7 235 222 0.51 3 AA 3A Tri-Rivers  5  4   41.8 1
20 George Wythe(R) 0 10 0.30 9.70 -0.30 24.6 138 497 0.22 3 AA 3B Dominion  0  11   32.2 0
21 Norcom 8 2 7.99 2.01 0.01 81.0 170 102 0.63 3 AA 3A Eastern  7  5   74.0 -1
22 Skyline 4 7 3.96 7.04 0.04 32.0 245 303 0.45 3 AA 3B Northwestern  2  8   19.8 -2
23 Hidden Valley 2 8 1.95 8.05 0.05 45.5 218 369 0.37 3 AA 3D River Ridge  3  8   51.3 1
24 Staunton River 13 1 12.86 1.14 0.14 82.5 699 285 0.71 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge  0  10   28.1 -13
25 Fort Defiance 1 9 0.85 9.15 0.15 12.5 161 388 0.29 3 AA 3C Valley  5  5   38.1 4
26 Turner Ashby 2 8 1.75 8.25 0.25 34.9 232 412 0.36 3 AA 3C Valley  2  7   29.7 0
27 James Monroe 7 7 6.74 7.26 0.26 60.0 357 367 0.49 3 AA 3B Battlefield  3  8   41.6 -4
28 Manassas Park 1 9 0.62 9.38 0.38 14.8 161 440 0.27 3 AA 3B Northwestern  1  0   35.1 0
29 Cave Spring 2 9 1.56 9.44 0.44 44.8 193 376 0.34 3 AA 3D River Ridge  2  9   37.9 0
30 Spotswood 8 4 7.55 4.45 0.45 54.3 338 278 0.55 3 AA 3C Valley  8  2   61.1 0
31 Lakeland 4 7 3.38 7.62 0.62 61.8 185 250 0.43 3 AA 3A Southeastern  2  8   45.9 -2
32 Tabb 3 7 2.22 7.78 0.78 46.5 157 250 0.39 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers  6  4   60.5 3
33 Patrick County 1 9 0.05 9.95 0.95 13.7 62 428 0.13 3 AA 3D Piedmont  2  8   19.2 1
34 Liberty(Bed) 2 9 0.93 10.07 1.07 49.9 176 425 0.29 3 AA 3C Seminole  7  6   74.1 5
35 Petersburg 4 6 2.92 7.08 1.08 54.1 198 275 0.42 3 AA 3A Central  7  4   67.9 3
36 York 9 4 7.84 5.16 1.16 67.6 320 274 0.54 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers  8  3   65.0 -1
37 Armstrong 2 8 0.81 9.19 1.19 41.2 192 471 0.29 3 AA 3B Capital  1  9   40.3 -1
38 Thomas Jefferson(R) 7 4 5.76 5.24 1.24 57.0 353 341 0.51 3 AA 3B Colonial  6  6   45.1 -1
39 Broadway 2 8 0.67 9.33 1.33 22.7 141 375 0.27 3 AA 3C Valley  4  6   40.1 2
40 Fluvanna 2 8 0.33 9.67 1.67 33.3 114 399 0.22 3 AA 3C Jefferson  6  5   52.8 4
41 Brentsville 4 7 2.26 8.74 1.74 35.3 163 269 0.38 3 AA 3B Northwestern  6  6   46.4 2
42 Rustburg 3 8 1.17 9.83 1.83 51.8 171 376 0.31 3 AA 3C Seminole  4  7   72.2 1
43 Northside 5 7 3.00 9.00 2.00 66.2 251 377 0.40 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge  11  2   83.7 6
44 Alleghany 4 7 1.99 9.01 2.01 30.9 179 313 0.36 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge  0  9   14.4 -4
45 Spotsylvania 4 7 1.70 9.30 2.30 45.4 189 355 0.35 3 AA 3B Battlefield  8  5   56.7 4
46 Brookville 10 3 7.67 5.33 2.33 79.0 395 345 0.53 3 AA 3C Seminole  8  4   76.1 -2
47 Culpeper County 6 7 3.65 9.35 2.35 47.7 266 377 0.41 3 AA 3B Northwestern  9  5   60.2 3
48 Colonial Heights 3 7 0.65 9.35 2.35 49.9 142 382 0.27 3 AA 3A Central  2  7   42.7 -1