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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2017 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Southampton 5 4 7.73 1.27 -2.73 44.8 297 152 0.66 3 AA 3A Tri-Rivers
2 Hopewell * 11 4 13.61 1.39 -2.61 80.8 438 188 0.70 3 AA 3A Central
3 Abingdon 6 5 8.16 2.84 -2.16 57.0 272 184 0.60 3 AA 3D Mountain
4 New Kent 4 6 6.04 3.96 -2.04 48.3 248 212 0.54 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers
5 Western Albemarle 2 8 3.92 6.08 -1.92 42.1 215 253 0.46 3 AA 3C Jefferson
6 Warren County 7 5 8.49 3.51 -1.49 46.8 308 222 0.58 3 AA 3B Northwestern
7 Monticello 9 3 10.36 1.64 -1.36 70.1 510 258 0.66 3 AA 3C Jefferson
8 Booker T. Washington 4 6 5.20 4.80 -1.20 50.2 238 231 0.51 3 AA 3A Eastern
9 Heritage(Lyn) 13 2 14.04 0.96 -1.04 83.0 684 253 0.73 3 AA 3C Seminole
10 John Marshall 1 9 1.89 8.11 -0.89 26.4 220 377 0.37 3 AA 3B Colonial
11 Phoebus 10 1 10.86 0.14 -0.86 77.9 349 69 0.83 3 AA 3A Peninsula
12 Rockbridge County 6 5 6.75 4.25 -0.75 46.9 395 333 0.54 3 AA 3C Valley
13 Lord Botetourt 10 3 10.64 2.36 -0.64 78.0 398 228 0.64 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
14 Christiansburg 0 10 0.63 9.37 -0.63 31.6 153 417 0.27 3 AA 3D River Ridge
15 Waynesboro 4 7 4.52 6.48 -0.52 38.3 274 313 0.47 3 AA 3C Valley
16 Tunstall 3 7 3.48 6.52 -0.48 34.1 255 322 0.44 3 AA 3D Piedmont
17 William Monroe 2 8 2.44 7.56 -0.44 15.1 206 313 0.40 3 AA 3B Northwestern
18 Magna Vista 8 4 8.41 3.59 -0.41 62.4 318 232 0.58 3 AA 3D Piedmont
19 Park View(SH) 4 4 4.31 3.69 -0.31 31.7 235 222 0.51 3 AA 3A Tri-Rivers
20 George Wythe(R) 0 10 0.30 9.70 -0.30 24.6 138 497 0.22 3 AA 3B Dominion
21 Norcom 8 2 7.99 2.01 0.01 81.0 170 102 0.63 3 AA 3A Eastern
22 Skyline 4 7 3.96 7.04 0.04 32.0 245 303 0.45 3 AA 3B Northwestern
23 Hidden Valley 2 8 1.95 8.05 0.05 45.5 218 369 0.37 3 AA 3D River Ridge
24 Staunton River 13 1 12.86 1.14 0.14 82.5 699 285 0.71 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
25 Fort Defiance 1 9 0.85 9.15 0.15 12.5 161 388 0.29 3 AA 3C Valley
26 Turner Ashby 2 8 1.75 8.25 0.25 34.9 232 412 0.36 3 AA 3C Valley
27 James Monroe 7 7 6.74 7.26 0.26 60.0 357 367 0.49 3 AA 3B Battlefield
28 Manassas Park 1 9 0.62 9.38 0.38 14.8 161 440 0.27 3 AA 3B Northwestern
29 Cave Spring 2 9 1.56 9.44 0.44 44.8 193 376 0.34 3 AA 3D River Ridge
30 Spotswood 8 4 7.55 4.45 0.45 54.3 338 278 0.55 3 AA 3C Valley
31 Lakeland 4 7 3.38 7.62 0.62 61.8 185 250 0.43 3 AA 3A Southeastern
32 Tabb 3 7 2.22 7.78 0.78 46.5 157 250 0.39 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers
33 Patrick County 1 9 0.05 9.95 0.95 13.7 62 428 0.13 3 AA 3D Piedmont
34 Liberty(Bed) 2 9 0.93 10.07 1.07 49.9 176 425 0.29 3 AA 3C Seminole
35 Petersburg 4 6 2.92 7.08 1.08 54.1 198 275 0.42 3 AA 3A Central
36 York 9 4 7.84 5.16 1.16 67.6 320 274 0.54 3 AA 3A Bay Rivers
37 Armstrong 2 8 0.81 9.19 1.19 41.2 192 471 0.29 3 AA 3B Capital
38 Thomas Jefferson(R) 7 4 5.76 5.24 1.24 57.0 353 341 0.51 3 AA 3B Colonial
39 Broadway 2 8 0.67 9.33 1.33 22.7 141 375 0.27 3 AA 3C Valley
40 Fluvanna 2 8 0.33 9.67 1.67 33.3 114 399 0.22 3 AA 3C Jefferson
41 Brentsville 4 7 2.26 8.74 1.74 35.3 163 269 0.38 3 AA 3B Northwestern
42 Rustburg 3 8 1.17 9.83 1.83 51.8 171 376 0.31 3 AA 3C Seminole
43 Northside 5 7 3.00 9.00 2.00 66.2 251 377 0.40 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
44 Alleghany 4 7 1.99 9.01 2.01 30.9 179 313 0.36 3 AA 3D Blue Ridge
45 Spotsylvania 4 7 1.70 9.30 2.30 45.4 189 355 0.35 3 AA 3B Battlefield
46 Brookville 10 3 7.67 5.33 2.33 79.0 395 345 0.53 3 AA 3C Seminole
47 Culpeper County 6 7 3.65 9.35 2.35 47.7 266 377 0.41 3 AA 3B Northwestern
48 Colonial Heights 3 7 0.65 9.35 2.35 49.9 142 382 0.27 3 AA 3A Central