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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Poquoson 9 4 12.64 0.36 -3.64 60.2 420 112 0.79 2 AA 2A Bay Rivers
2 Gretna 9 3 11.93 0.07 -2.93 63.3 491 73 0.87 2 A 2C Dogwood
3 Strasburg 7 4 8.81 2.19 -1.81 38.7 325 194 0.63 2 A 2B Bull Run
4 King William 9 2 10.80 0.20 -1.80 47.1 411 94 0.81 2 A 2A Tidewater
5 Floyd County 2 8 3.67 6.33 -1.67 22.4 193 236 0.45 2 A 2C Three Rivers
6 Ridgeview 10 2 11.49 0.51 -1.49 68.1 490 155 0.76 2 A 2D Mountain
7 Amelia County 9 2 10.39 0.61 -1.39 53.5 440 154 0.74 2 A 2A James River
8 Clarke County 6 4 7.34 2.66 -1.34 40.9 325 223 0.59 2 A 2B Bull Run
9 Central(W) 10 2 11.32 0.68 -1.32 65.0 462 163 0.74 2 A 2B Bull Run
10 Glenvar 10 2 11.24 0.76 -1.24 68.6 371 137 0.73 2 A 2C Three Rivers
11 Appomattox 10 2 11.11 0.89 -1.11 75.1 430 169 0.72 2 A 2C Dogwood
12 Greensville 6 5 6.98 4.02 -0.98 25.9 286 233 0.55 2 A 2A Tri-Rivers
13 Tazewell 2 8 2.92 7.08 -0.92 13.3 260 361 0.42 2 A 2D Southwest
14 Goochland 14 1 14.51 0.49 -0.51 79.0 465 133 0.78 2 A 2A James River
15 Union 9 3 9.47 2.53 -0.47 63.6 323 198 0.62 2 A 2D Mountain
16 Buffalo Gap 7 5 7.33 4.67 -0.33 52.1 390 330 0.54 2 A 2B Shenandoah
17 Graham * 14 1 14.31 0.69 -0.31 81.7 581 189 0.75 2 A 2D Southwest
18 Gate City 1 9 1.31 8.69 -0.31 25.7 170 343 0.33 2 A 2D Mountain
19 East Rockingham 13 1 13.29 0.71 -0.29 78.2 612 207 0.75 2 A 2B Shenandoah
20 Chatham 1 9 1.27 8.73 -0.27 16.5 204 416 0.33 2 A 2C Dogwood
21 Buckingham County 5 5 5.23 4.77 -0.23 35.2 178 172 0.51 2 A 2C James River
22 Madison County 3 7 3.13 6.87 -0.13 26.3 248 332 0.43 2 A 2B Bull Run
23 James River(B) 8 3 8.07 2.93 -0.07 53.9 335 230 0.59 2 A 2C Pioneer
24 R.E. Lee(ST) 6 5 6.05 4.95 -0.05 49.5 375 348 0.52 2 A 2B Shenandoah
25 Bruton 0 4 0.00 4.00 -0.00 23.4 6 206 0.03 2 A 2A Bay Rivers
26 Marion 4 6 3.95 6.05 0.05 33.4 239 280 0.46 2 A 2D Southwest
27 Page 4 6 3.92 6.08 0.08 32.1 216 254 0.46 2 A 2B Shenandoah
28 Grayson County 6 3 5.91 3.09 0.09 50.9 169 133 0.56 2 A 2D Mtn. Empire
29 George Mason 2 7 1.88 7.12 0.12 15.3 149 244 0.38 2 A 2B Bull Run
30 Radford 12 2 11.85 2.15 0.15 75.5 393 209 0.65 2 A 2C Three Rivers
31 Prince Edward 3 6 2.81 6.19 0.19 22.4 229 307 0.43 2 A 2A James River
32 Fort Chiswell 4 6 3.72 6.28 0.28 38.0 178 216 0.45 2 A 2C Mtn. Empire
33 Lee 2 8 1.66 8.34 0.34 24.7 165 300 0.35 2 A 2D Shenandoah
34 Randolph-Henry 1 8 0.53 8.47 0.47 9.5 125 349 0.26 2 A 2A James River
35 John Battle 5 6 4.52 6.48 0.48 41.8 183 209 0.47 2 A 2D Mountain
36 Arcadia 5 6 4.40 6.60 0.60 22.6 333 387 0.46 2 A 2A Eastern Shore-A
37 Virginia 5 6 4.39 6.61 0.61 50.6 239 278 0.46 2 A 2D Southwest
38 Stuarts Draft 3 7 2.38 7.62 0.62 31.5 189 291 0.39 2 A 2B Shenandoah
39 Martinsville 1 9 0.35 9.65 0.65 18.0 115 395 0.23 2 A 2C Piedmont
40 Nottoway 4 6 3.31 6.69 0.69 31.4 192 249 0.44 2 A 2A James River
41 Nandua 3 7 2.24 7.76 0.76 3.8 256 406 0.39 2 A 2A Eastern Shore-A
42 Lebanon 2 8 1.13 8.87 0.87 15.8 170 365 0.32 2 A 2D Southwest
43 Dan River 4 6 3.12 6.88 0.88 38.9 203 272 0.43 2 A 2C Dogwood
44 Nelson County 2 7 1.08 7.92 0.92 1.6 155 324 0.32 2 A 2C Dogwood
45 Bluestone 2 6 0.89 7.11 1.11 22.5 105 227 0.32 2 A 2A James River
46 Wilson Memorial 5 6 3.77 7.23 1.23 49.5 323 411 0.44 2 A 2B Shenandoah
47 Luray 8 4 6.67 5.33 1.33 57.4 388 357 0.52 2 A 2B Shenandoah
48 Richlands 8 5 6.59 6.41 1.41 62.8 308 305 0.50 2 AA 2D Southwest
49 Giles 4 6 1.86 8.14 2.14 52.6 162 280 0.37 2 A 2C Three Rivers
50 Brunswick 3 7 0.70 9.30 2.30 21.5 112 292 0.28 2 A 2A Tri-Rivers
51 Wise Central 4 7 1.59 9.41 2.41 40.9 203 392 0.34 2 A 2D Mountain