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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Gretna 7 2 8.97 0.03 -1.97 62.1 414 51 0.89 2 A 2C Dogwood
2 Poquoson 7 2 8.92 0.08 -1.92 57.0 328 58 0.85 2 AA 2A Bay Rivers
3 Strasburg 7 2 8.45 0.55 -1.45 43.6 305 111 0.73 2 A 2B Bull Run
4 Buckingham County 4 4 5.16 2.84 -1.16 37.6 146 117 0.56 2 A 2C James River
5 Floyd County 1 8 2.09 6.91 -1.09 22.0 147 229 0.39 2 A 2C Three Rivers
6 Page 4 5 5.03 3.97 -1.03 33.2 216 198 0.52 2 A 2B Shenandoah
7 Clarke County 6 3 7.00 2.00 -1.00 44.9 304 191 0.61 2 A 2B Bull Run
8 Greensville 5 4 5.96 3.04 -0.96 29.6 254 198 0.56 2 A 2A Tri-Rivers
9 Tazewell 2 7 2.91 6.09 -0.91 20.6 248 326 0.43 2 A 2D Southwest
10 King William 7 1 7.84 0.16 -0.84 54.1 309 73 0.81 2 A 2A Tidewater
11 Central(W) 7 1 7.77 0.23 -0.77 60.8 287 78 0.79 2 A 2B Bull Run
12 Ridgeview 8 1 8.75 0.25 -0.75 68.9 362 97 0.79 2 A 2D Mountain
13 Graham 8 1 8.55 0.45 -0.55 75.7 356 120 0.75 2 A 2D Southwest
14 Appomattox 7 1 7.42 0.58 -0.42 73.4 294 114 0.72 2 A 2C Dogwood
15 Buffalo Gap 5 4 5.38 3.62 -0.38 49.4 292 252 0.54 2 A 2B Shenandoah
16 Radford 8 1 8.36 0.64 -0.36 70.0 293 113 0.72 2 A 2C Three Rivers
17 Gate City 1 9 1.31 8.69 -0.31 29.9 170 343 0.33 2 A 2D Mountain
18 James River(B) 7 2 7.29 1.71 -0.29 54.0 298 174 0.63 2 A 2C Pioneer
19 Madison County 2 7 2.27 6.73 -0.27 18.2 214 320 0.40 2 A 2B Bull Run
20 Union 7 2 7.19 1.81 -0.19 68.0 283 170 0.62 2 A 2D Mountain
21 Randolph-Henry 0 8 0.15 7.85 -0.15 2.9 79 343 0.19 2 A 2A James River
22 Chatham 1 8 1.11 7.89 -0.11 18.4 176 364 0.33 2 A 2C Dogwood
23 Bruton 0 4 0.00 4.00 -0.00 18.2 6 206 0.03 2 A 2A Bay Rivers
24 Goochland 9 0 8.97 0.03 0.03 59.0 340 43 0.89 2 A 2A James River
25 George Mason 2 6 1.92 6.08 0.08 19.0 137 210 0.39 2 A 2B Bull Run
26 East Rockingham 9 0 8.82 0.18 0.18 77.0 394 93 0.81 2 A 2B Shenandoah
27 Fort Chiswell 3 5 2.81 5.19 0.19 33.9 149 187 0.44 2 A 2C Mtn. Empire
28 Marion 4 5 3.80 5.20 0.20 35.4 227 255 0.47 2 A 2D Southwest
29 John Battle 5 4 4.74 4.26 0.26 43.2 183 176 0.51 2 A 2D Mountain
30 R.E. Lee(ST) 5 4 4.73 4.27 0.27 49.4 318 306 0.51 2 A 2B Shenandoah
31 Prince Edward 3 5 2.72 5.28 0.28 24.0 215 275 0.44 2 A 2A James River
32 Luray 7 2 6.71 2.29 0.29 49.4 320 215 0.60 2 A 2B Shenandoah
33 Richlands 5 4 4.71 4.29 0.29 63.1 240 232 0.51 2 AA 2D Southwest
34 Grayson County 6 1 5.68 1.32 0.32 59.9 153 89 0.63 2 A 2D Mtn. Empire
35 Amelia County 8 0 7.68 0.32 0.32 59.4 368 113 0.77 2 A 2A James River
36 Lee 2 7 1.64 7.36 0.36 27.3 157 274 0.36 2 A 2D Shenandoah
37 Lebanon 1 8 0.63 8.37 0.37 13.9 135 353 0.28 2 A 2D Southwest
38 Glenvar 9 0 8.61 0.39 0.39 76.0 302 96 0.76 2 A 2C Three Rivers
39 Arcadia 5 4 4.58 4.42 0.42 29.8 308 304 0.50 2 A 2A Eastern Shore-A
40 Dan River 4 5 3.57 5.43 0.43 42.5 203 237 0.46 2 A 2C Dogwood
41 Nelson County 1 7 0.51 7.49 0.49 -3.7 112 303 0.27 2 A 2C Dogwood
42 Nottoway 4 4 3.45 4.55 0.55 32.7 166 184 0.47 2 A 2A James River
43 Martinsville 1 8 0.40 8.60 0.60 20.9 109 339 0.24 2 A 2C Piedmont
44 Stuarts Draft 3 6 2.35 6.65 0.65 31.3 175 257 0.41 2 A 2B Shenandoah
45 Nandua 3 7 2.24 7.76 0.76 -8.5 256 406 0.39 2 A 2A Eastern Shore-A
46 Wilson Memorial 5 4 4.17 4.83 0.83 42.5 304 321 0.49 2 A 2B Shenandoah
47 Virginia 5 4 4.16 4.84 0.84 53.9 207 219 0.49 2 A 2D Southwest
48 Bluestone 2 6 0.89 7.11 1.11 22.5 105 227 0.32 2 A 2A James River
49 Wise Central 3 6 1.25 7.75 1.75 40.9 161 316 0.34 2 A 2D Mountain
50 Giles 4 5 2.05 6.95 1.95 52.0 156 245 0.39 2 A 2C Three Rivers
51 Brunswick 3 5 0.81 7.19 2.19 16.1 104 234 0.31 2 A 2A Tri-Rivers