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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Heritage(Le) 4 5 7.06 1.94 -3.06 48.9 218 135 0.62 4 AA 4C Dulles
2 GW-Danville 8 3 10.51 0.49 -2.51 63.3 408 131 0.76 4 AA 4D Piedmont
3 Pulaski County 8 4 10.39 1.61 -2.39 72.6 417 209 0.67 4 AA 4D River Ridge
4 Salem 7 4 9.13 1.87 -2.13 73.6 365 203 0.64 4 AA 4D River Ridge
5 William Byrd 7 3 9.03 0.97 -2.03 59.6 347 152 0.70 4 AA 4D Blue Ridge
6 Sherando 10 2 11.29 0.71 -1.29 84.3 496 178 0.74 4 AA 4C Northwestern
7 Powhatan 6 4 7.25 2.75 -1.25 59.3 222 155 0.59 4 AA 4B Jefferson
8 Kings Fork 6 6 7.19 4.81 -1.19 72.8 254 219 0.54 4 AA 4A Southeastern
9 Kettle Run 9 2 9.96 1.04 -0.96 75.8 340 147 0.70 4 AA 4C Northwestern
10 E.C. Glass 11 2 11.96 1.04 -0.96 88.2 513 208 0.71 4 AA 4D Seminole
11 Lafayette 11 1 11.87 0.13 -0.87 84.8 530 99 0.84 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
12 Loudoun County 9 2 9.87 1.13 -0.87 78.5 350 157 0.69 4 AA 4C Dulles
13 Fauquier 0 10 0.77 9.23 -0.77 28.2 138 347 0.28 4 AA 4C Northwestern
14 Eastern View 13 1 13.66 0.34 -0.66 89.0 660 169 0.80 4 AA 4B Battlefield
15 Dinwiddie 11 2 11.61 1.39 -0.61 85.1 546 249 0.69 4 AA 4B Central
16 Charlottesville 1 9 1.55 8.45 -0.55 29.9 190 356 0.35 4 AA 4D Jefferson
17 Monacan 9 3 9.41 2.59 -0.41 82.7 361 224 0.62 4 AA 4B Dominion
18 Lake Taylor 13 2 13.39 1.61 -0.39 92.9 658 300 0.69 4 AA 4A Eastern
19 Louisa 11 1 11.34 0.66 -0.34 81.4 433 151 0.74 4 AA 4B Jefferson
20 Warhill 7 5 7.22 4.78 -0.22 57.4 275 236 0.54 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
21 Millbrook 6 4 6.17 3.83 -0.17 62.1 339 284 0.54 4 AA 4C Northwestern
22 Denbigh 0 9 0.11 8.89 -0.11 25.2 78 399 0.16 4 AA 4A Peninsula
23 Courtland 8 3 8.10 2.90 -0.10 72.3 347 237 0.59 4 AA 4B Battlefield
24 Amherst County 1 9 1.10 8.90 -0.10 46.7 182 395 0.32 4 AA 4D Seminole
25 Woodgrove * 11 2 11.08 1.92 -0.08 94.0 404 211 0.66 4 AA 4C Dulles
26 Grafton 0 9 0.02 8.98 -0.02 23.8 34 342 0.09 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
27 Blacksburg 13 1 13.01 0.99 -0.01 90.6 472 182 0.72 4 AA 4D River Ridge
28 King George 1 9 0.92 9.08 0.08 37.3 144 336 0.30 4 AA 4B Battlefield
29 Liberty(Beal) 5 5 4.66 5.34 0.34 57.8 253 266 0.49 4 AA 4C Northwestern
30 Huguenot 4 6 3.61 6.39 0.39 58.9 187 231 0.45 4 AA 4B Dominion
31 Jefferson Forest 8 4 7.57 4.43 0.43 74.1 555 455 0.55 4 AA 4D Seminole
32 Caroline 1 9 0.51 9.49 0.49 25.9 154 456 0.25 4 AA 4B Battlefield
33 Riverside 8 3 7.39 3.61 0.61 71.0 206 158 0.57 4 AA 4C Dulles
34 Loudoun Valley 1 8 0.32 8.68 0.68 48.2 93 314 0.23 4 AA 4C Dulles
35 Handley 5 5 4.32 5.68 0.68 46.7 198 219 0.47 4 AA 4C Northwestern
36 Heritage(NN) 5 5 4.25 5.75 0.75 53.9 185 207 0.47 4 AA 4A Peninsula
37 Jamestown 1 8 0.17 8.83 0.83 30.9 84 359 0.19 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
38 Chancellor 4 6 2.98 7.02 1.02 56.0 281 386 0.42 4 AA 4B Battlefield
39 Carroll County 3 7 1.88 8.12 1.12 35.4 157 270 0.37 4 AA 4D River Ridge
40 Great Bridge 2 7 0.83 8.17 1.17 47.6 128 299 0.30 4 AA 4A Southeastern
41 James Wood 4 6 2.74 7.26 1.26 49.3 228 327 0.41 4 AA 4C Northwestern
42 Bassett 3 7 1.70 8.30 1.30 37.0 134 241 0.36 4 AA 4D Piedmont
43 Patrick Henry(A) 4 7 2.66 8.34 1.34 52.1 214 327 0.40 4 AAA 4B Capital
44 Churchland 4 6 2.62 7.38 1.38 60.3 184 270 0.41 4 AA 4A Eastern
45 Smithfield 4 6 2.57 7.43 1.43 51.0 229 339 0.40 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
46 Hanover 3 7 1.44 8.56 1.56 53.6 172 333 0.34 4 AA 4B Capital
47 Woodrow Wilson 2 7 0.43 8.57 1.57 46.4 108 328 0.25 4 AA 4A Eastern
48 Deep Creek 7 4 5.42 5.58 1.58 72.8 194 196 0.50 4 AA 4A Southeastern
49 Dominion 3 6 1.03 7.97 1.97 47.3 109 233 0.32 4 AA 4C Dulles
50 Midlothian 6 5 3.44 7.56 2.56 69.9 180 241 0.43 4 AA 4B Dominion