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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District
1 Kings Fork 5 4 7.59 1.41 -2.59 67.5 226 121 0.65 4 AA 4A Southeastern
2 Heritage(Le) 4 4 6.51 1.49 -2.51 48.0 204 118 0.63 4 AA 4C Dulles
3 Salem 6 3 7.75 1.25 -1.75 73.5 311 158 0.66 4 AA 4D River Ridge
4 GW-Danville 7 2 8.71 0.29 -1.71 58.2 379 108 0.78 4 AA 4D Piedmont
5 Pulaski County 7 2 8.32 0.68 -1.32 75.8 369 146 0.72 4 AA 4D River Ridge
6 Warhill 5 3 6.05 1.95 -1.05 56.0 216 142 0.60 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
7 Woodgrove 6 2 7.01 0.99 -1.01 83.5 250 121 0.67 4 AA 4C Dulles
8 Charlottesville 0 9 1.01 7.99 -1.01 26.7 159 342 0.32 4 AA 4D Jefferson
9 Huguenot 4 4 4.94 3.06 -0.94 57.2 184 154 0.54 4 AA 4B Dominion
10 Powhatan 5 3 5.78 2.22 -0.78 61.0 174 122 0.59 4 AA 4B Jefferson
11 Sherando 8 1 8.71 0.29 -0.71 82.0 436 123 0.78 4 AA 4C Northwestern
12 William Byrd 7 1 7.68 0.32 -0.68 63.0 312 96 0.76 4 AA 4D Blue Ridge
13 Loudoun County 7 1 7.66 0.34 -0.66 71.6 278 88 0.76 4 AA 4C Dulles
14 E.C. Glass 8 1 8.65 0.35 -0.65 86.7 366 111 0.77 4 AA 4D Seminole
15 Fauquier 0 9 0.59 8.41 -0.59 31.2 114 306 0.27 4 AA 4C Northwestern
16 Kettle Run 7 1 7.42 0.58 -0.42 74.7 265 103 0.72 4 AA 4C Northwestern
17 Dinwiddie 8 1 8.41 0.59 -0.41 84.3 412 154 0.73 4 AA 4B Central
18 King George 1 8 1.27 7.73 -0.27 40.2 144 281 0.34 4 AA 4B Battlefield
19 Courtland 7 2 7.13 1.87 -0.13 76.5 287 175 0.62 4 AA 4B Battlefield
20 Denbigh 0 8 0.10 7.90 -0.10 27.1 72 358 0.17 4 AA 4A Peninsula
21 Amherst County 1 8 1.08 7.92 -0.08 47.1 169 353 0.32 4 AA 4D Seminole
22 Grafton 0 8 0.02 7.98 -0.02 16.9 27 266 0.09 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
23 Lafayette 7 0 6.97 0.03 0.03 88.0 309 42 0.88 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
24 Eastern View 9 0 8.92 0.08 0.08 84.0 470 82 0.85 4 AA 4B Battlefield
25 Lake Taylor 8 1 7.91 1.09 0.09 89.3 408 196 0.68 4 AA 4A Eastern
26 Liberty(Beal) 4 5 3.70 5.30 0.30 53.3 212 242 0.47 4 AA 4C Northwestern
27 Millbrook 6 2 5.68 2.32 0.32 68.2 311 223 0.58 4 AA 4C Northwestern
28 Jefferson Forest 7 2 6.68 2.32 0.32 73.5 444 300 0.60 4 AA 4D Seminole
29 Monacan 7 2 6.60 2.40 0.40 78.3 262 180 0.59 4 AA 4B Dominion
30 Great Bridge 1 7 0.51 7.49 0.49 47.0 101 273 0.27 4 AA 4A Southeastern
31 Heritage(NN) 5 4 4.50 4.50 0.50 54.5 172 172 0.50 4 AA 4A Peninsula
32 Louisa 9 0 8.50 0.50 0.50 86.6 348 122 0.74 4 AA 4B Jefferson
33 Blacksburg 9 0 8.41 0.59 0.59 90.0 308 115 0.73 4 AA 4D River Ridge
34 Caroline 1 8 0.34 8.66 0.66 31.6 119 393 0.23 4 AA 4B Battlefield
35 Handley 5 5 4.32 5.68 0.68 51.3 198 219 0.47 4 AA 4C Northwestern
36 Riverside 8 2 7.29 2.71 0.71 69.0 179 124 0.59 4 AA 4C Dulles
37 Loudoun Valley 1 7 0.29 7.71 0.71 44.5 83 279 0.23 4 AA 4C Dulles
38 Churchland 4 5 3.21 5.79 0.79 55.4 172 214 0.45 4 AA 4A Eastern
39 Jamestown 1 7 0.15 7.85 0.85 29.1 70 306 0.19 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
40 Chancellor 4 6 2.98 7.02 1.02 56.0 281 386 0.42 4 AA 4B Battlefield
41 Bassett 2 7 0.94 8.06 1.06 52.4 105 233 0.31 4 AA 4D Piedmont
42 Patrick Henry(A) 3 7 1.87 8.13 1.13 49.2 173 298 0.37 4 AAA 4B Capital
43 Smithfield 4 5 2.86 6.14 1.14 56.0 208 276 0.43 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers
44 James Wood 4 5 2.82 6.18 1.18 51.3 214 286 0.43 4 AA 4C Northwestern
45 Carroll County 3 6 1.67 7.33 1.33 34.3 136 235 0.37 4 AA 4D River Ridge
46 Hanover 3 6 1.43 7.57 1.57 55.5 165 306 0.35 4 AA 4B Capital
47 Woodrow Wilson 2 7 0.43 8.57 1.57 49.0 108 328 0.25 4 AA 4A Eastern
48 Midlothian 6 3 4.05 4.95 1.95 77.0 167 180 0.48 4 AA 4B Dominion
49 Dominion 3 6 1.03 7.97 1.97 49.5 109 233 0.32 4 AA 4C Dulles
50 Deep Creek 6 3 3.82 5.18 2.18 76.6 159 178 0.47 4 AA 4A Southeastern