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1999-19 Team Seasons
A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball
writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s
runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.
Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.
The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses PFALL = Points for PAALL = Points against Projected W = Projected Wins Projected L = Projected Losses
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.
1 |
Heritage(Le)
|
4 |
5 |
7.06 |
1.94 |
-3.06 |
48.9 |
218 |
135 |
0.62 |
4 |
AA |
4C |
Dulles |
1 |
7 |
37.7 |
-3 |
2 |
GW-Danville
|
8 |
3 |
10.51 |
0.49 |
-2.51 |
63.3 |
408 |
131 |
0.76 |
4 |
AA |
4D |
Piedmont |
5 |
2 |
70.7 |
-3 |
3 |
Pulaski County
|
8 |
4 |
10.39 |
1.61 |
-2.39 |
72.6 |
417 |
209 |
0.67 |
4 |
AA |
4D |
River Ridge |
7 |
1 |
86.8 |
-1 |
4 |
Salem
|
7 |
4 |
9.13 |
1.87 |
-2.13 |
73.6 |
365 |
203 |
0.64 |
4 |
AA |
4D |
River Ridge |
6 |
1 |
90.0 |
-1 |
5 |
William Byrd
|
7 |
3 |
9.03 |
0.97 |
-2.03 |
59.6 |
347 |
152 |
0.70 |
4 |
AA |
4D |
Blue Ridge |
2 |
5 |
52.8 |
-5 |
6 |
Sherando
|
10 |
2 |
11.29 |
0.71 |
-1.29 |
84.3 |
496 |
178 |
0.74 |
4 |
AA |
4C |
Northwestern |
3 |
2 |
75.0 |
-7 |
7 |
Powhatan
|
6 |
4 |
7.25 |
2.75 |
-1.25 |
59.3 |
222 |
155 |
0.59 |
4 |
AA |
4B |
Jefferson |
3 |
4 |
59.0 |
-3 |
8 |
Kings Fork
|
6 |
6 |
7.19 |
4.81 |
-1.19 |
72.8 |
254 |
219 |
0.54 |
4 |
AA |
4A |
Southeastern |
2 |
5 |
50.9 |
-4 |
9 |
Kettle Run
|
9 |
2 |
9.96 |
1.04 |
-0.96 |
75.8 |
340 |
147 |
0.70 |
4 |
AA |
4C |
Northwestern |
0 |
7 |
31.0 |
-9 |
10 |
E.C. Glass
|
11 |
2 |
11.96 |
1.04 |
-0.96 |
88.2 |
513 |
208 |
0.71 |
4 |
AA |
4D |
Seminole |
7 |
0 |
92.0 |
-4 |
11 |
Lafayette
|
11 |
1 |
11.87 |
0.13 |
-0.87 |
84.8 |
530 |
99 |
0.84 |
4 |
AA |
4A |
Bay Rivers |
6 |
1 |
74.0 |
-5 |
12 |
Loudoun County
|
9 |
2 |
9.87 |
1.13 |
-0.87 |
78.5 |
350 |
157 |
0.69 |
4 |
AA |
4C |
Dulles |
6 |
2 |
78.3 |
-3 |
13 |
Fauquier
|
0 |
10 |
0.77 |
9.23 |
-0.77 |
28.2 |
138 |
347 |
0.28 |
4 |
AA |
4C |
Northwestern |
4 |
4 |
61.5 |
4 |
14 |
Eastern View
|
13 |
1 |
13.66 |
0.34 |
-0.66 |
89.0 |
660 |
169 |
0.80 |
4 |
AA |
4B |
Battlefield |
8 |
0 |
87.0 |
-5 |
15 |
Dinwiddie
|
11 |
2 |
11.61 |
1.39 |
-0.61 |
85.1 |
546 |
249 |
0.69 |
4 |
AA |
4B |
Central |
3 |
4 |
75.3 |
-8 |
16 |
Charlottesville
|
1 |
9 |
1.55 |
8.45 |
-0.55 |
29.9 |
190 |
356 |
0.35 |
4 |
AA |
4D |
Jefferson |
0 |
8 |
29.1 |
-1 |
17 |
Monacan
|
9 |
3 |
9.41 |
2.59 |
-0.41 |
82.7 |
361 |
224 |
0.62 |
4 |
AA |
4B |
Dominion |
5 |
1 |
76.0 |
-4 |
18 |
Lake Taylor
|
13 |
2 |
13.39 |
1.61 |
-0.39 |
92.9 |
658 |
300 |
0.69 |
4 |
AA |
4A |
Eastern |
6 |
2 |
88.1 |
-7 |
19 |
Louisa
|
11 |
1 |
11.34 |
0.66 |
-0.34 |
81.4 |
433 |
151 |
0.74 |
4 |
AA |
4B |
Jefferson |
7 |
0 |
92.4 |
-4 |
20 |
Warhill
|
7 |
5 |
7.22 |
4.78 |
-0.22 |
57.4 |
275 |
236 |
0.54 |
4 |
AA |
4A |
Bay Rivers |
6 |
0 |
79.8 |
-1 |
21 |
Millbrook
|
6 |
4 |
6.17 |
3.83 |
-0.17 |
62.1 |
339 |
284 |
0.54 |
4 |
AA |
4C |
Northwestern |
4 |
2 |
63.5 |
-2 |
22 |
Denbigh
|
0 |
9 |
0.11 |
8.89 |
-0.11 |
25.2 |
78 |
399 |
0.16 |
4 |
AA |
4A |
Peninsula |
0 |
7 |
16.3 |
0 |
23 |
Courtland
|
8 |
3 |
8.10 |
2.90 |
-0.10 |
72.3 |
347 |
237 |
0.59 |
4 |
AA |
4B |
Battlefield |
1 |
7 |
39.5 |
-7 |
24 |
Amherst County
|
1 |
9 |
1.10 |
8.90 |
-0.10 |
46.7 |
182 |
395 |
0.32 |
4 |
AA |
4D |
Seminole |
1 |
6 |
54.5 |
0 |
25 |
Woodgrove
*
|
11 |
2 |
11.08 |
1.92 |
-0.08 |
94.0 |
404 |
211 |
0.66 |
4 |
AA |
4C |
Dulles |
3 |
4 |
73.2 |
-8 |
26 |
Grafton
|
0 |
9 |
0.02 |
8.98 |
-0.02 |
23.8 |
34 |
342 |
0.09 |
4 |
AA |
4A |
Bay Rivers |
1 |
6 |
34.7 |
1 |
27 |
Blacksburg
|
13 |
1 |
13.01 |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
90.6 |
472 |
182 |
0.72 |
4 |
AA |
4D |
River Ridge |
5 |
3 |
71.7 |
-8 |
28 |
King George
|
1 |
9 |
0.92 |
9.08 |
0.08 |
37.3 |
144 |
336 |
0.30 |
4 |
AA |
4B |
Battlefield |
3 |
4 |
60.3 |
2 |
29 |
Liberty(Beal)
|
5 |
5 |
4.66 |
5.34 |
0.34 |
57.8 |
253 |
266 |
0.49 |
4 |
AA |
4C |
Northwestern |
8 |
0 |
82.6 |
3 |
30 |
Huguenot
|
4 |
6 |
3.61 |
6.39 |
0.39 |
58.9 |
187 |
231 |
0.45 |
4 |
AA |
4B |
Dominion |
3 |
3 |
66.7 |
-1 |
31 |
Jefferson Forest
|
8 |
4 |
7.57 |
4.43 |
0.43 |
74.1 |
555 |
455 |
0.55 |
4 |
AA |
4D |
Seminole |
4 |
3 |
70.5 |
-4 |
32 |
Caroline
|
1 |
9 |
0.51 |
9.49 |
0.49 |
25.9 |
154 |
456 |
0.25 |
4 |
AA |
4B |
Battlefield |
1 |
6 |
32.9 |
0 |
33 |
Riverside
|
8 |
3 |
7.39 |
3.61 |
0.61 |
71.0 |
206 |
158 |
0.57 |
4 |
AA |
4C |
Dulles |
4 |
3 |
68.4 |
-4 |
34 |
Loudoun Valley
|
1 |
8 |
0.32 |
8.68 |
0.68 |
48.2 |
93 |
314 |
0.23 |
4 |
AA |
4C |
Dulles |
5 |
3 |
68.7 |
4 |
35 |
Handley
|
5 |
5 |
4.32 |
5.68 |
0.68 |
46.7 |
198 |
219 |
0.47 |
4 |
AA |
4C |
Northwestern |
6 |
0 |
83.3 |
1 |
36 |
Heritage(NN)
|
5 |
5 |
4.25 |
5.75 |
0.75 |
53.9 |
185 |
207 |
0.47 |
4 |
AA |
4A |
Peninsula |
1 |
7 |
31.9 |
-4 |
37 |
Jamestown
|
1 |
8 |
0.17 |
8.83 |
0.83 |
30.9 |
84 |
359 |
0.19 |
4 |
AA |
4A |
Bay Rivers |
2 |
5 |
46.0 |
1 |
38 |
Chancellor
|
4 |
6 |
2.98 |
7.02 |
1.02 |
56.0 |
281 |
386 |
0.42 |
4 |
AA |
4B |
Battlefield |
5 |
3 |
62.5 |
1 |
39 |
Carroll County
|
3 |
7 |
1.88 |
8.12 |
1.12 |
35.4 |
157 |
270 |
0.37 |
4 |
AA |
4D |
River Ridge |
2 |
6 |
23.9 |
-1 |
40 |
Great Bridge
|
2 |
7 |
0.83 |
8.17 |
1.17 |
47.6 |
128 |
299 |
0.30 |
4 |
AA |
4A |
Southeastern |
3 |
4 |
52.9 |
1 |
41 |
James Wood
|
4 |
6 |
2.74 |
7.26 |
1.26 |
49.3 |
228 |
327 |
0.41 |
4 |
AA |
4C |
Northwestern |
5 |
2 |
62.2 |
1 |
42 |
Bassett
|
3 |
7 |
1.70 |
8.30 |
1.30 |
37.0 |
134 |
241 |
0.36 |
4 |
AA |
4D |
Piedmont |
5 |
3 |
54.3 |
2 |
43 |
Patrick Henry(A)
|
4 |
7 |
2.66 |
8.34 |
1.34 |
52.1 |
214 |
327 |
0.40 |
4 |
AAA |
4B |
Capital |
5 |
3 |
68.8 |
1 |
44 |
Churchland
|
4 |
6 |
2.62 |
7.38 |
1.38 |
60.3 |
184 |
270 |
0.41 |
4 |
AA |
4A |
Eastern |
6 |
2 |
78.6 |
2 |
45 |
Smithfield
|
4 |
6 |
2.57 |
7.43 |
1.43 |
51.0 |
229 |
339 |
0.40 |
4 |
AA |
4A |
Bay Rivers |
2 |
4 |
50.0 |
-2 |
46 |
Hanover
|
3 |
7 |
1.44 |
8.56 |
1.56 |
53.6 |
172 |
333 |
0.34 |
4 |
AA |
4B |
Capital |
1 |
6 |
35.9 |
-2 |
47 |
Woodrow Wilson
|
2 |
7 |
0.43 |
8.57 |
1.57 |
46.4 |
108 |
328 |
0.25 |
4 |
AA |
4A |
Eastern |
1 |
6 |
38.4 |
-1 |
48 |
Deep Creek
|
7 |
4 |
5.42 |
5.58 |
1.58 |
72.8 |
194 |
196 |
0.50 |
4 |
AA |
4A |
Southeastern |
6 |
1 |
81.4 |
-1 |
49 |
Dominion
|
3 |
6 |
1.03 |
7.97 |
1.97 |
47.3 |
109 |
233 |
0.32 |
4 |
AA |
4C |
Dulles |
3 |
4 |
55.3 |
0 |
50 |
Midlothian
|
6 |
5 |
3.44 |
7.56 |
2.56 |
69.9 |
180 |
241 |
0.43 |
4 |
AA |
4B |
Dominion |
1 |
6 |
58.5 |
-5 |
|